Glacial Lakes in Peru: Evolution, Hazards and impacts of climate change.

秘鲁的冰川湖：气候变化的演变、危害和影响。

• 批准号: NE/S01330X/1
• 负责人: Stephan Harrison
• 金额: $ 67.49万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS01330X%2F1
• 关键词: Glacial; Lakes; Peru; Evolution; Hazards

Glaciers in Peru are undergoing rapid recession in response to climate change and this has helped produce numerous large glacial lakes, many of which are dammed by moraines and are likely to drain catastrophically if the moraine dams fail or are overtopped. A major trigger of lake drainage is rock slides and debris flows into lakes from recently-exposed valley walls and unstable moraines. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from these lakes pose a significant hazard to communities and infrastructure and also impact water supplies in the region. In Peru, outburst floods from glacial lakes have caused ~ 32,000 deaths in the 20th century, as well as destroying vital economic infrastructure, settlements and valuable arable land. Despite the importance of these lakes, there are many unanswered questions concerning their future behaviour and the future risk of GLOFs. For instance, we do not know how many glacial lakes there are in Peru, nor whether these are growing in size, nor whether they are becoming more or less vulnerable to rapid drainage caused by rock slides and debris flows. We therefore do not know which lakes might cause GLOFs, nor whether the risk of GLOFs is increasing or decreasing. As a result, this project will answer questions concerning the past, present and future development of glacial lakes and glacier hazards in Peruvian mountains. We will produce the first complete inventory of glacial lakes in all the glaciated mountain regions of Peru, assess their changes in size over time in response to past and future glacier recession and assess changes in their vulnerability to sudden drainage. We will investigate the changing magnitude, frequency, and distribution of GLOFs under current and future global climate change; produce the first complete inventory of historical GLOFs in Peru and identify sites that have the potential to develop glacial hazards in the future. We will, for the first time, assess the risk of landslides into glacial lakes now and into the future. We will use physically-based numerical models to simulate GLOFs at sites identified as posing a high hazard and use these simulations to make hazard and flood risk predictions that can inform decision-makers in Peru. To do this we will focus on five main issues:1. Glacial lake development and GLOF inventories in the past and presentUsing literature, remote-sensing and fieldwork, we will compile an inventory of all glacial lakes and past GLOF sites in the glaciated regions of Peru. 2. Climate modellingUse the latest generation of climate models to assess mountain areas of Peru at most risk of future warming and precipitation change. This will enable us to identify areas of future lake drainage risk and we will develop a ranking of mountain areas for future risk of lake drainage.3. Assessment of lake vulnerabilityWe will identify current and likely future glacier hazards focusing on the developing landslide and debris flow risk as glaciers recede; establish the locations of potential future vulnerable lakes and potential GLOF sites.4. Model GLOFs.We will (a) establish the physical processes that govern GLOF behaviour; (b) analyse flood hydrographs of selected former GLOFs to establish downstream impacts. 5. Assess the socio-economic effects of GLOFs in Peru and GLOF prediction: We will (a) identify potential GLOF sites across Peru and assess potential socio-economic vulnerability; (b) reconstruct former GLOFs and their impacts; (c) conduct numerical simulations of downstream impacts for potential GLOF sites.This proposal is ODA compliant as it will promote the economic development of Peru by providing improved risk reduction methods that can be applied to hydropower projects and high-altitude mines as well as to local communities through relevant government agencies. The GLOF risk protocols developed in this project can be applied to other DAC-listed countries where GLOF hazards exist (e.g. Argentina)

由于气候变化，秘鲁的冰川正在迅速衰退，这有助于产生许多大型冰川湖，其中许多冰湖被冰碛坝堵塞，如果冰碛坝失效或漫过，可能会发生灾难性的排水。湖泊排水的一个主要触发因素是岩石滑坡和泥石流从最近暴露的谷壁和不稳定的冰碛流入湖泊。这些湖泊引发的冰川湖溃决洪水 (GLOF) 对社区和基础设施造成重大危害，并影响该地区的供水。在秘鲁，20 世纪冰川湖爆发的洪水已造成约 32,000 人死亡，并摧毁了重要的经济基础设施、定居点和宝贵的耕地。尽管这些湖泊很重要，但关于它们未来的行为和 GLOF 的未来风险，仍有许多悬而未决的问题。例如，我们不知道秘鲁有多少个冰川湖，也不知道这些湖的规模是否在扩大，也不知道它们是否越来越容易或越来越容易受到岩石滑坡和泥石流造成的快速排水的影响。因此，我们不知道哪些湖泊可能导致 GLOF，也不知道 GLOF 的风险是增加还是减少。因此，该项目将回答有关秘鲁山区冰川湖和冰川灾害的过去、现在和未来发展的问题。我们将编制秘鲁所有冰川山区的第一份完整的冰川湖清单，评估其规模随时间的变化，以应对过去和未来的冰川衰退，并评估其对突然排水的脆弱性的变化。我们将研究当前和未来全球气候变化下GLOF的变化幅度、频率和分布；编制秘鲁历史 GLOF 的第一份完整清单，并确定未来有可能产生冰川灾害的地点。我们将首次评估现在和未来山体滑坡进入冰川湖的风险。我们将使用基于物理的数值模型来模拟被确定具有高危险性的地点的 GLOF，并利用这些模拟进行危险和洪水风险预测，为秘鲁的决策者提供信息。为此，我们将重点关注五个主要问题： 1．过去和现在的冰川湖开发和 GLOF 清单 利用文献、遥感和实地调查，我们将编制秘鲁冰川地区所有冰川湖和过去 GLOF 地点的清单。 2. 气候模型使用最新一代的气候模型来评估秘鲁山区未来变暖和降水变化风险最大的地区。这将使我们能够确定未来湖泊排水风险的区域，并且我们将制定山区未来湖泊排水风险的排名。3。湖泊脆弱性评估我们将确定当前和未来可能出现的冰川灾害，重点关注冰川消退时发生的山体滑坡和泥石流风险；确定未来潜在的脆弱湖泊和潜在的 GLOF 地点的位置。4．建立 GLOF 模型。我们将 (a) 建立控制 GLOF 行为的物理过程； (b) 分析选定的前 GLOF 的洪水过程线以确定下游影响。 5. 评估秘鲁 GLOF 的社会经济影响和 GLOF 预测：我们将 (a) 确定秘鲁各地潜在的 GLOF 地点并评估潜在的社会经济脆弱性； (b) 重建前 GLOF 及其影响； (c) 对潜在的 GLOF 地点的下游影响进行数值模拟。该提案符合官方发展援助，因为它将通过提供改进的风险降低方法来促进秘鲁的经济发展，这些方法可应用于水电项目和高海拔矿山以及当地社区通过相关政府机构。本项目中制定的 GLOF 风险协议可应用于存在 GLOF 危害的其他 DAC 列出的国家（例如阿根廷）

项目成果

A new GLOF inventory for the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes

秘鲁和玻利维亚安第斯山脉的新 GLOF 库存

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9744
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Emmer A

Contemporary glacial lakes in the Peruvian Andes

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103574
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: Global and Planetary Change
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: J. Wood;S. Harrison;R. Wilson;A. Emmer;C. Yarlequé;N. Glasser;J. Torres;A. Caballero;J. Araujo;G. Bennett;A. Diaz-Moreno;D. Garay;H. Jara;C. Poma;J. Reynolds;C. Riveros;E. Romero;S. Shannon;T. Tinoco;E. Turpo;H. Villafane

What’s in a lake? Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Peruvian Andes.

什么

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12241
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Wood J

Mapping Three Decades of Changes in the Tropical Andean Glaciers Using Landsat Data Processed in the Earth Engine

使用地球引擎处理的陆地卫星数据绘制热带安第斯冰川三个十年的变化

• DOI: 10.3390/rs14091974
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Remote Sensing
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Turpo Cayo E