Emergence of Climate Hazards

气候灾害的出现

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S004602/2
负责人：
Simon Josey
金额：
$ 18.84万
依托单位：
NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS004602%2F2
关键词：
Emergence Climate Hazards

项目摘要

Climate hazards are weather and climate 'extreme events' that can cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. Examples include:- The summer heat wave of 2003 in Western Europe, thought to be unprecedented in 500 years, which caused more that 20,000 early deaths, mainly among vulnerable groups in society such as the elderly- South Asian Monsoon monsoon failures and subsequent agricultural losses - agriculture accounts for 18% of GDP, but employs 60% of people in S. Asia (~1 billion people)- The extreme El Niño event of 2015/16 that caused floods, droughts and wildfires globally and drove the fastest annual increase in CO2 on record- A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014, causing severe floods and £451 million of insured lossesSuch events are, most likely, influenced by global climate change in ways that we do not currently understand. Future climate change may further exacerbate their impacts.This project will assess the impact of climate change on climate hazards in the past and present and project forward their changes into the future. There is a focus on the next 30 years because of the relevance of this time scale for adaptation strategies produced by governments, businesses and individuals.EMERGENCE will use information from state-of-the-art climate models, including from models with unprecedented fine detail. It will use cutting edge observations in order to constrain climate model predictions using changes already observed, drawing on new and improved analysis techniques (including event attribution, machine learning and feature tracking) that were not available or not widely applied during previous assessments of climate hazards from older models. The hazards addressed are: extreme heat stress events, tropical deluges and droughts, and storms with their associated extreme winds and rainfall. Information will be integrated into global indicators that will form a snapshot summary of climate hazard risks that, in turn, will be an essential resource for policy makers.The project's assessments of the emergence of climate hazards will be produced in a timely fashion to feed into the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), being relevant to both physical climate science and impacts. The team assembled, including a number of leading climate science project partners from the Met Office, has a strong track record in IPCC and is thus ideally placed to provide this input and to further strengthen the profile of UK climate science in the international arena.

气候灾害是指天气和气候“极端事件”，可能导致人员伤亡或其他健康影响，以及财产、基础设施、生计、服务提供和环境资源的损害和损失。示例包括：- 夏季。 2003 年西欧发生了 500 年来从未有过的热浪，导致 20,000 多人过早死亡，其中主要是老年人等社会弱势群体——南亚季风季风失败以及随之而来的农业损失- 农业占 GDP 的 18%，但雇用了南亚 60% 的人口（约 10 亿人） - 2015/2016 年的极端厄尔尼诺事件在全球范围内引发了洪水、干旱和野火，并推动了农业生产量的年度增长最快记录在案的二氧化碳 - 2013/2014 年冬季一系列风暴袭击英格兰南部，造成严重洪水和 4.51 亿英镑的保险损失此类事件很可能受到全球气候的影响未来的气候变化可能会进一步加剧其影响。该项目将评估气候变化对过去和现在的气候危害的影响，并预测其未来的变化。未来 30 年，因为这个时间尺度与政府、企业和个人制定的适应战略的相关性。EMERGENCE 将使用来自最先进的气候模型的信息，包括来自具有前所未有的精细细节的模型的信息。边缘观测，以利用变化来限制气候模型预测利用新的和改进的分析技术（包括事件归因、机器学习和特征跟踪），在以前的旧模型气候灾害评估中未曾使用或未广泛应用这些技术。所涉及的灾害包括：极端热应激事件、热带地区。洪水、干旱、风暴及其相关的极端风和降雨的信息将被纳入全球指标，这些指标将形成气候灾害风险的快照摘要，而这反过来又将成为政策制定者的重要资源。气候灾害的出现将及时制作，以纳入政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的下一次评估，与自然气候科学和影响相关。该团队包括来自英国气象局的一些领先的气候科学项目合作伙伴，在 IPCC 中拥有良好的记录，因此非常适合提供这种投入并进一步加强英国气候科学在国际舞台上的形象。