Half a degree Additional warming: Prognosis and Projected Impacts on Health (HAPPI-Health)

半度额外变暖：预后和预计对健康的影响（HAPPI-Health）

• 批准号: NE/R009554/1
• 负责人: Daniel Mitchell
• 金额: $ 40.44万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR009554%2F1
• 关键词: Half; degree; Additional; warming; Prognosis

The most recent Lancet Commissions on climate change and health concluded that "Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century". Here, we specifically consider the thermal-health component of the future climate-health burden in an attempt to estimate, for the first time, the number of temperature related deaths under future climate change in developing regions of the world. This number is surprisingly hard to calculate even with large error bars. Aside from the uncertainties in climate projections, the relationship between heat stress and human health varies significantly between countries, and even between cities within the same country. Estimates have been made on a regional scale in some developed countries. For instance, in the UK, a ~250% increase in heat related mortality by the year 2050 was estimated from an annual baseline of ~2000 current deaths (Hajat et al, 2014). This proposal aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of extreme temperatures and associated temperature-related mortality in all regions of the globe, including previously avoided regions such as developing nations, by characterising the uncertainties in different methods of climate change projections, mechanisms driving the extremes, and their relationship to the temperature-health burden at the city level. Specifically, for future climate we consider Paris Agreement climate scenarios. The Paris Agreement aims to limit globally averaged temperatures to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue ambitions to limit it to 1.5C. But this aim is currently supported by rather thin scientific evidence (James et al, 2016), in particular with respect to relative risks of high-impact extreme weather events. Sea level rise aside, the impacts of a global warming of 1.5C, and the impacts avoided by stabilising temperatures at 1.5 instead of 2C, will be dominated, in most regions of the world, by changing risks of extreme weather events, hence the relevance of our proposed research. Fischer & Knutti (2015) estimate that, on a global average, the occurrence of heat extremes doubles between 1.5 & 2C warming. For individual regions, large-scale averages do not provide an adequate basis for decisions on risk prevention and resilience. Changes in atmospheric dynamics and factors other than greenhouse gases also affect heat and rainfall extremes, and, locally, may yield changes in risk that are either greater than or even opposed to the global average (Schaller et al, 2016).The Paris Agreement calls for research into the impacts of a given level of warming, not the impacts of a scenario that is expected, at some probability, to yield a given level of warming. This requires a new approach to estimate future climate which is complementary to the scenario-driven experiments that provide the core of CMIP5 and CMIP6. To address this, we employ the newly developed Half a degree Additional warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI; Mitchell et al, 2016a) scenario set - a set of targeted experiments specifically designed to address questions related to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C and 2C global averaged warming anomalies.The Paris Agreement is a major step forward for the international climate community, and will play a large role in the next IPCC report (AR6) and well beyond. This proposal brings together experts in climate (Mitchell and Allen) and health (Gasparrini), to provide a comprehensive analysis of one the key impacts of climate change, temperature related mortality. It provides an assessment of what drives extreme temperatures, where the climate change signals are largest, and how these impact on the regional- and city-level health burden around the world.

关于气候变化和健康的最新柳叶刀委员会得出的结论是，“气候变化是21世纪最大的全球健康威胁”。在这里，我们特别考虑了未来气候健康负担的热健康部分，试图估算世界发展中地区未来气候变化下与温度有关的死亡人数。即使使用较大的误差线，这个数字也很难计算。除了气候预测的不确定性外，在国家之间甚至同一国家内的城市之间，热压力与人类健康之间的关系也有很大差异。在某些发达国家，已经在区域规模上进行了估计。例如，在英国，到2050年，与热量相关的死亡率增加了约250％，这是根据2000年当前死亡的年度基线估计的（Hajat等，2014）。该提案旨在通过表征不同地区的不确定性，在气候变化预测的不同方法中表征不确定性，促进极端的机制及其与城市水平的温度 - 健康负担之间的关系，以对全球所有地区的极端温度和相关温度相关的死亡率进行全面了解。具体来说，对于未来的气候，我们考虑巴黎协定的气候场景。 《巴黎协定》旨在将全球平均温度限制在远低于工业前水平的2C以下，并追求野心将其限制为1.5C。但是，目前，这一目标得到了相当薄的科学证据的支持（James等，2016），特别是关于高影响力极端天气事件的相对风险。除了海平面上升，在世界上大多数地区，通过改变极端天气事件的风险，稳定温度在1.5而不是2C所避免的影响中，全球变暖的影响以及稳定温度所带来的影响将由我们拟议的研究的相关性而主导。 Fischer＆Knutti（2015）估计，在全球平均水平上，极端热量的发生在1.5和2C变暖之间。对于个别地区，大规模的平均值不能为预防风险和韧性的决定提供足够的基础。大气动态和温室气体以外的其他因素的变化也会影响极端的热量和降雨，并且在当地可能会产生大于或什至与全球平均水平相反的风险变化（Schaller等人，2016年）。《巴黎协定》呼吁对给定温暖水平的影响进行研究，而不是预期的某些可能的临界值，以使某些特定能力成为特定水平，以使某些特定水平产生一个温暖的水平。这需要一种新的方法来估计未来气候，该方法与场景驱动的实验相辅相成，该实验提供了CMIP5和CMIP6的核心。为了解决这个问题，我们采用了新开发的半学位额外的变暖；预后和预测的影响（Happi; Mitchell等，2016a）场景集 - 一组针对性的实验，专门针对解决与巴黎协议目标的问题1.5C和2C全球平均升温异常相关的问题。《巴黎协议》是国际气候社区的重要一步，在国际气候社区中起着很大的作用，并且将在下一个iPcc中发挥着重要作用（AR ENDER（AR）（AR6）。该提案汇集了气候（Mitchell and Allen）和Health（Gasparrini）的专家，以全面分析气候变化，与温度相关的死亡率的关键影响。它提供了驱动极端温度的评估，气候变化信号最大，以及这些对世界各地地区和城市水平健康负担的影响。

项目成果

Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl078789
• 发表时间: 2018-09
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Wenbin Liu;Wee Ho Lim;Wee Ho Lim;F. Sun;D. Mitchell;Hong Wang;Deliang Chen;I. Bethke;H. Shiogama;E. Fischer

Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794
• 发表时间: 2020-10-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Vosper, E. L.;Mitchell, D. M.;Emanuel, K.
• 通讯作者: Emanuel, K.

Predicting future UK nighttime urban heat islands using observed short-term variability and regional climate projections

使用观测到的短期变化和区域气候预测预测未来英国夜间城市热岛

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf94c
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Doger De Speville C

Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad
• 发表时间: 2020-10
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Alan T. Kennedy-Asser;Oliver Andrews;D. Mitchell;R. Warren

Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

英国气候预测 (UKCP18) 中与热应激相关的预计风险

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac541a
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Kennedy-Asser A