Towards a marginal Arctic sea ice cover

走向北极边缘海冰覆盖

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R000263/1
负责人：
Michel Tsamados
金额：
$ 14.66万
依托单位：
University College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR000263%2F1
关键词：
Towards marginal Arctic sea ice

项目摘要

Recent observed changes in the Arctic have become a 'poster child' for global climatic changes, particularly because the summer sea ice extent has shrunk rapidly over the past 35 years. This retreat of the sea ice has led to growth of trans-Arctic shipping and plans to extract minerals and fossil fuels from the ocean floor. The latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that it was likely that the Arctic would become reliably ice-free by 2050 assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. However, the climate simulations used by the IPCC often fail to realistically capture large scale properties of the Arctic sea ice, such as the extent, variability and recent trends. Therefore, there is a need to improve simulations of Arctic sea ice to provide better understanding of the recent observed changes and credible projections of the future to help assess risks and opportunities and inform important policy decisions about adaptation and mitigation. Observations of the Arctic have improved in recent years with new satellites measuring sea ice properties from space. These satellites reveal not only that the extent and thickness of the Arctic ice cover is reducing in all seasons but that the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ), a region of low ice area concentration consisting of a relatively disperse collection of small floes, has grown.Model projections indicate the MIZ will grow from around 10% to 80% of the summer sea ice cover by 2050, exposing a hitherto relatively quiescent Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Nonlinear interactions between the air, ice, and ocean that magnify or diminish change, known as feedbacks, associated with a reduced and marginal sea ice cover will emerge or assume dominance in the coming years. Many of these feedbacks are either entirely absent or inadequately captured in current models. For example, not included is the feedback whereby the creation of smaller floes due to ice melt or breakup under ocean wave stress promotes further lateral melt and propagation of waves deeper into the pack, further enlarging the MIZ. Because existing climate models oversimplify these feedbacks, their utility for understanding and predicting variability and change in the Arctic is compromised. This leads to impairment of climate model accuracy at lower latitudes also, due to errors in meridional atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as ice export from the Arctic. We will investigate processes controlling evolution of the MIZ using existing and new observations. We will include physics of wave-ice interaction, ice breakup and melt, and floe collisions into ice, ocean, and climate models. We will use these models, constrained and verified with new observations, to explore feedbacks between the sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere using a series of numerical experiments. We will quantify the impact of the increase in the MIZ on the Arctic physical climate, and explore the processes responsible for the projected loss of Arctic sea ice.

最近观察到的北极变化已成为全球气候变化的“海报孩子”，尤其是因为在过去的35年中，夏季海冰范围迅速缩小。海冰的这种撤退导致北极运输的增长，并计划从海底提取矿物质和化石燃料。政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）的最新评估得出的结论是，假设温室气体排放量不断增加，到2050年，北极可能会可靠地无冰。但是，IPCC使用的气候模拟通常无法现实地捕获北极海冰的大规模特性，例如程度，可变性和最近的趋势。因此，有必要改善对北极海冰的模拟，以更好地理解对未来的最新变化和可靠的预测，以帮助评估风险和机会，并为有关适应和缓解的重要政策决定提供信息。近年来，随着新卫星测量空间的海冰性能，北极的观察结果有所改善。这些卫星不仅揭示了北极冰盖的范围和厚度在所有季节都在减少，而且边缘冰区（MIZ）是一个低冰面积浓度的区域，包括相对分散的小型浮标的集合，已经越来越多。模型预测表明，到2050年，MIZ将从夏季海冰覆盖的10％增长到80％，将迄今为止相对静止的北极海洋揭露到大气中。空气，冰和海洋之间的非线性相互作用会放大或减少变化，称为反馈，与减少和边缘海冰覆盖率相关的反馈将在未来几年中出现或占主导地位。这些反馈中的许多反馈要么完全不存在，要么在当前模型中被捕获不足。例如，不包括在于，由于海浪应力下的冰融化或分解而产生较小的浮动的反馈可以进一步促进横向熔体，并将波浪的传播深入到包装中，从而进一步扩大MIZ。由于现有的气候模型过多地简化了这些反馈，因此它们用于理解和预测北极的可变性和变化的实用性受到损害。由于子午大气和海洋循环中的错误以及从北极的冰出口，这也导致气候模型准确性降低了较低的纬度。我们将使用现有和新观察结果调查控制MIZ演变的过程。我们将包括波冰相互作用，破冰和融化的物理学，以及将碰撞浮成冰，海洋和气候模型。我们将使用这些模型，并通过新观察结果进行限制和验证，并使用一系列数值实验探索海冰，海洋和大气之间的反馈。我们将量化MIZ增加对北极物理气候的影响，并探索导致北极海冰损失的过程。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（9）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

CryoSat-2 Significant Wave Height in Polar Oceans Derived Using a Semi-Analytical Model of Synthetic Aperture Radar 2011-2019

DOI：
10.3390/rs13204166
发表时间：
2021-10-01
期刊：
REMOTE SENSING
影响因子：
5
作者：
Heorton, Harold;Tsamados, Michel;Landy, Jack
通讯作者：
Landy, Jack

Altimetry for the future: Building on 25 years of progress

DOI：
10.1016/j.asr.2021.01.022
发表时间：
2021-06-09
期刊：
ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Abdalla, Saleh;Kolahchi, Abdolnabi Abdeh;Zlotnicki, Victor
通讯作者：
Zlotnicki, Victor

Retrieving Sea Ice Drag Coefficients and Turning Angles From In Situ and Satellite Observations Using an Inverse Modeling Framework

DOI：
10.1029/2018jc014881
发表时间：
2019-08-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Heorton, H. D. B. S.;Tsamados, M.;Armitage, T. W. K.
通讯作者：
Armitage, T. W. K.

Stress and deformation characteristics of sea ice in a high-resolution, anisotropic sea ice model.

DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2017.0349
发表时间：
2018-09-28
期刊：
Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
影响因子：
0
作者：
Heorton HDBS;Feltham DL;Tsamados M
通讯作者：
Tsamados M

Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice

DOI：
10.14465/2020.arc10.ice
发表时间：
2020-01
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
B. Hwang;Y. Aksenov;E. Blockley;M. Tsamados;T. Brown;J. Landy;D. Stevens;J. Wilkinson
通讯作者：
B. Hwang;Y. Aksenov;E. Blockley;M. Tsamados;T. Brown;J. Landy;D. Stevens;J. Wilkinson