Summer: Testing Influences and Mechanisms for Europe (SummerTIME)

夏季：测试欧洲的影响和机制（SummerTIME）

• 批准号: NE/M005887/1
• 负责人: Tim Woollings
• 金额: $ 76.91万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM005887%2F1
• 关键词: Summer; Testing; Influences; Mechanisms; Europe

The recent string of wet UK summers had considerable impact on society via effects such as flooding. The summer of 2013 then bucked the trend, with unusually warm and dry conditions prevailing. The proximate causes of these unusual seasons were shifts of the Atlantic jet and storm track, which steers the path of individual storms. But are there deeper underlying causes: remote or 'external' drivers that can have an influence on the jet stream? If so, can we use these drivers to improve our forecasts of these high-impact events from months to years ahead? These are the questions that will be addressed by the SummerTIME proposal. Summertime shifts of the jet stream appear to be related to Atlantic Ocean temperatures, both on seasonal and decadal timescales. Other potential drivers include sea ice variations, anthropogenic aerosol emissions and tropical circulation patterns. However, climate models in general have difficulty in reproducing these observed relationships, and operational seasonal forecast systems have little skill in predicting jet shifts. The primary aim of SummerTIME is to advance the science of seasonal to decadal prediction of summertime atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic-European region. The meteorology of summertime circulation has historically been much less studied than its wintertime counterpart, and much remains to be understood of its fundamental nature. A secondary aim of SummerTIME is to improve our understanding of the fundamentals of summer circulation, for example why the storm track splits into two distinct paths just west of the British Isles. This will be investigated using the latest observational datasets and a hierarchy of numerical models of different complexities. A series of sensitivity experiments will be performed centred around a new version of the Met Office climate model coupled to a very detailed model of the ocean surface layer. These experiments will be designed to test the roles of possible drivers such as ocean currents, sea ice and aerosol forcing. Finally, the project will analyse a wide range of state of the art forecast systems, particularly from the Met Office but also from other forecasting centres around the world. The aim is to identify missing or poorly represented processes in the forecast systems and investigate how these may be improved. The SummerTIME team will work closely with scientists from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting, to ensure that the results are successfully pulled through to aid the development of operational forecast systems.

英国最近连续的潮湿夏季通过洪水等影响对社会产生了相当大的影响。 2013 年夏季却逆势而上，天气异常温暖干燥。这些不寻常季节的直接原因是大西洋急流和风暴路径的变化，它们引导着个别风暴的路径。但是否存在更深层次的根本原因：可能对急流产生影响的远程或“外部”驱动因素？如果是这样，我们能否利用这些驱动因素来改进对未来数月至数年这些高影响事件的预测？这些是 SummerTIME 提案将解决的问题。夏季急流的变化似乎与季节性和十年时间尺度上的大西洋温度有关。其他潜在的驱动因素包括海冰变化、人为气溶胶排放和热带环流模式。然而，气候模型通常难以重现这些观察到的关系，并且业务季节性预报系统在预测急流变化方面几乎没有技巧。 SummerTIME 的主要目标是推进北大西洋-欧洲地区夏季大气环流的季节到年代际预测科学。历史上，夏季环流气象学的研究远少于冬季气象学，对其基本性质仍有许多待了解。 《SummerTIME》的第二个目标是提高我们对夏季环流基本原理的理解，例如为什么风暴路径在不列颠群岛西部分裂成两条不同的路径。将使用最新的观测数据集和不同复杂性的数值模型层次结构对此进行研究。一系列敏感性实验将围绕新版本的英国气象局气候模型以及非常详细的海洋表层模型进行。这些实验旨在测试洋流、海冰和气溶胶强迫等可能驱动因素的作用。最后，该项目将分析各种最先进的预报系统，特别是来自英国气象局的预报系统，也包括来自世界各地其他预报中心的预报系统。目的是识别预测系统中缺失或代表性不佳的流程，并研究如何改进这些流程。 SummerTIME 团队将与英国气象局和欧洲中期天气预报中心的科学家密切合作，以确保成功地获得结果，以帮助开发业务预报系统。

项目成果

Seasonal Sensitivity of the Hadley Cell and Cross-Hemispheric Responses to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM

哈德来环流圈的季节敏感性和理想化 GCM 中非绝热加热的跨半球响应

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2018gl077013
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Baker H

The Signature of Oceanic Processes in Decadal Extratropical SST Anomalies

十年温带海温异常的海洋过程特征

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079077
• 发表时间: 2018-08-08
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: C. O’Reilly;L. Zanna
• 通讯作者: L. Zanna

An Interdecadal Shift of the Extratropical Teleconnection From the Tropical Pacific During Boreal Summer

北半球夏季热带太平洋温带遥相关的年代际变化

• DOI: http://dx.10.1029/2019gl084079
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: O'Reilly C

Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing effects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming

强迫夏季驻波：直接辐射强迫和海面变暖的相反影响

• DOI: http://dx.10.1007/s00382-019-04786-1
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Baker H

Interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime North Pacific

ENSO 与冬季北太平洋遥相关的年代际变化

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4081-y
• 发表时间: 2018-02-08
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: C. O’Reilly