The resilience and sustainability of the Mekong delta to changes in water and sediment fluxes (RAMESES)

湄公河三角洲对水和沉积物通量变化的恢复力和可持续性 (RAMESES)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P014704/1
负责人：
Daniel Parsons
金额：
$ 56.18万
依托单位：
University of Hull
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP014704%2F1
关键词：
resilience sustainability Mekong delta changes

项目摘要

The world's 33 largest deltas are being drowned by relative sea level rise and are, as a result, rapidly losing land. This process is also driving an exacerbation of flood risk in these environments, which is placing many large cities, key infrastructure and over 0.5 billion people at risk globally. These issues are most acute for deltas across Southern and Southeast Asia, where an estimated 20% of land will be lost by 2100. These risks are significant. For example, floods during the 2011 Asian monsoon killed an estimated 2000 people and caused ~US$45 billion in economic damage across SE Asia. Moreover, these deltas, and their ecosystem services, underpin regional food security for rapidly growing populations. There is therefore an urgent need to evolve an improved generic understanding of the processes behind the relative sea level rise and flood risk dynamics in these deltaic environments into the future. Significant recent advances have been made in our understanding of many aspects of delta morphodynamics and evolution. This has included work on distributary channel flow processes, bifurcation stability and bar dynamics, and the profound influence of tidal backwater effects on longer-term channel hydro- and sediment dynamics. However, despite this progress there are significant uncertainties around the influence of: i) upstream migrating backwater effects, forced by sea-level rise, on delta bifurcation stability; ii) declining sediment delivery and increased hydrological variability on distributary channel stability; iii) connectivity between the channels and the delta surface on the routing, dispersal and trapping of sediment. Each of these uncertainties are key knowledge gaps that must be addressed for effective delta management, flood risk mitigation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Our project will investigate flow and sediment routing through the Mekong delta across the annual monsoon flood and develop a new generic understanding of the impact of relative sea-level rise and sediment routing processes through distributary channels and key bifurcation sites on the delta. This will be achieved through collection of new state-of-the-art field datasets, development and application of morphodynamic numerical modelling and utilization of system dynamics modelling to guide aquaculture and agriculture adaptations to changes. We will leverage a range of existing links we have to engage with, and communicate the outcomes of the work, to agencies and policy makers in the region and inform water resource planning and mitigation/adaptation strategies in the context of climate change.

世界上 33 个最大的三角洲正因海平面相对上升而被淹没，土地也因此迅速消失。这一过程还加剧了这些环境中的洪水风险，使全球许多大城市、关键基础设施和超过 5 亿人面临风险。这些问题对于南亚和东南亚的三角洲地区最为严重，预计到 2100 年，那里将有 20% 的土地消失。这些风险是巨大的。例如，2011 年亚洲季风期间的洪水导致整个东南亚约 2000 人死亡，并造成约 450 亿美元的经济损失。此外，这些三角洲及其生态系统服务支撑着快速增长的人口的区域粮食安全。因此，迫切需要对未来这些三角洲环境中相对海平面上升和洪水风险动态背后的过程有更好的一般理解。我们对三角洲形态动力学和进化的许多方面的理解最近取得了重大进展。这包括对分流河道流动过程、分叉稳定性和坝动力学的研究，以及潮汐回水效应对长期河道水文和沉积物动力学的深刻影响。然而，尽管取得了这一进展，但以下方面的影响仍存在很大的不确定性：i）海平面上升迫使上游迁移回水效应对三角洲分叉稳定性的影响； ii) 输沙量减少和水文变异性增加对分流河道稳定性的影响； iii) 河道与三角洲表面之间的连通性对沉积物的路径、扩散和截留的影响。这些不确定性都是关键的知识差距，必须解决这些问题，才能有效进行三角洲管理、缓解洪水风险和维护生态系统服务。我们的项目将调查每年季风洪水期间流经湄公河三角洲的水流和沉积物路径，并对相对海平面上升和通过三角洲上的分流河道和关键分叉点的沉积物路径过程的影响形成新的一般认识。这将通过收集新的最先进的现场数据集、形态动力学数值模型的开发和应用以及利用系统动力学模型来指导水产养殖和农业适应变化来实现。我们将利用我们必须参与的一系列现有联系，向该地区的机构和政策制定者传达工作成果，并为气候变化背景下的水资源规划和缓解/适应战略提供信息。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（8）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Establishing sustainable sediment budgets is critical for climate-resilient mega-deltas

DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fc
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
Environmental Research Letters
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
G. Vasilopoulos;Q. Quan;D. Parsons;S. Darby;V. Tri;N. Hung;I. Haigh;H. Voepel;A. Nicholas;R. Aalto
通讯作者：
G. Vasilopoulos;Q. Quan;D. Parsons;S. Darby;V. Tri;N. Hung;I. Haigh;H. Voepel;A. Nicholas;R. Aalto

Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta: results of field observations and integrated coastal-inland modelling

湄公河三角洲盐分入侵动态：实地观测结果和沿海内陆综合模型

DOI：
10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Earth Surface Dynamics
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Eslami S
通讯作者：
Eslami S

River bank instability from unsustainable sand mining in the lower Mekong River

DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0455-3
发表时间：
2020-01-13
期刊：
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
影响因子：
27.6
作者：
Hackney, Christopher R.;Darby, Stephen E.;Houseago, Robert C.
通讯作者：
Houseago, Robert C.

Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta; results of field observations and integrated coastal-inland modelling

DOI：
10.5194/esurf-2020-109
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
Earth Surface Dynamics
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Sepehr Eslami;P. Hoekstra;H. Kernkamp;Nam Nguyen Trung;Dung Do Duc;Hung Nguyen Nghia;Tho Tran Quang;Arthur van Dam;S. Darby;D. Parsons;G. Vasilopoulos;L. Braat;M. van der Vegt
通讯作者：
Sepehr Eslami;P. Hoekstra;H. Kernkamp;Nam Nguyen Trung;Dung Do Duc;Hung Nguyen Nghia;Tho Tran Quang;Arthur van Dam;S. Darby;D. Parsons;G. Vasilopoulos;L. Braat;M. van der Vegt

Supplementary material to "Sand mining far outpaces natural supply in a large alluvial river"

补充材料