IMPETUS: Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision-Making

动力：改进干旱预测以促进用户决策

• 批准号: NE/L01047X/1
• 负责人: Tim Woollings
• 金额: $ 51.91万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL01047X%2F1
• 关键词: IMPETUS; Improving; Predictions; Drought; User

Droughts have severe impacts on societies, economies, agriculture and ecosystems. The 1975-76 UK drought had a devastating effect on the UK economy causing an estimated £3,500M loss to agriculture, £700M of subsidence damage to buildings and a £400M cost to the water industry (present day figures adjusted for inflation). Forward planning is critical for managing the impacts of drought, since early action enables stakeholders, such as public water supply and agricultural companies, to curb demand and to effectively manage diminishing water resources. Improved forecasts on drought management (monthly to seasonal) and planning timescales (seasonal to decadal) would be exceptionally valuable for effective drought management and for minimising the negative impacts of droughts.Droughts are complex events, with impacts dependent on meteorological, hydrological and land surface factors as well as on water demand and management. Consequently, drought forecasting has many components: forecasting meteorological drought (deficit of rainfall), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) and hydrological drought (decline in surface water and groundwater), forecasting the consequences of drought for water availability and forecasting the effects of drought management. All of these are uncertain and any improvement in decision-making needs to consider all aspects of the forecast process. IMPETUS focuses on meteorological and hydrological forecasting linked to innovative methods for forecasting local domestic water demand during drought.IMPETUS is an interdisciplinary proposal that brings together scientists from the meteorological, land surface, surface water and groundwater communities and social scientists from the water demand and forecast usability communities. The project involves internationally-leading scientists and social scientist from three NERC Research Centres (NCAS, BGS and CEH), four leading universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and Southampton), the Met Office and ECMWF. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. This will be achieved by improving meteorological, hydrological and water demand forecasts and how they are combined to produce drought forecasts. This will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for decision making. IMPETUS addresses WP2 (Forecasting Drought) of the UK Droughts and Water Scarcity call.We envisage IMPETUS producing a range of high-impact publications in meteorology, hydrology, hydro-meteorological forecasting, water demand modelling and the usability of drought forecasts. The outcomes from IMPETUS will also benefit a wide range of stakeholders. These include informing the Environment Agency (EA) on the ability of the hydrological models used by EA for water resource management to represent drought, and furthering the understanding that underpins key operational projects, including the Hydrological Outlooks project. IMPETUS outcomes will also benefit the Met Office and ECMWF through an improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and recommendations for improving the representation of drought in operational meteorological forecast systems and climate models. Finally, IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Particular examples of this have already been identified through initial discussions with stakeholders including precipitation forecasts for Thames Water and soil moisture forecasts for the agricultural sector.

干旱对社会、经济、农业和生态系统造成严重影响 1975-76 年的英国干旱对英国经济造成了毁灭性影响，造成农业损失估计达 35 亿英镑，建筑物下陷损失达 7 亿英镑，并造成 4 亿英镑的损失。水行业（根据通货膨胀调整的当前数据）对于管理干旱的影响至关重要，因为早期行动使公共供水和农业公司等利益相关者能够抑制需求并有效管理。改进对干旱管理（每月到季节性）和规划时间尺度（季节性到十年）的预测对于有效的干旱管理和最大限度地减少干旱的负面影响非常有价值。干旱是复杂的事件，其影响取决于气象、根据水文和地表因素以及对水的需求和管理的测试，干旱预报有许多组成部分：预报气象干旱（降雨不足）、农业干旱（土壤水分不足）和水文干旱。 （地表水和地下水的减少）、预测干旱对可用水量的影响以及预测干旱管理的影响，所有这些都是不确定的，决策过程中的任何改进都需要考虑预测过程的各个方面。气象和水文预报与预测干旱期间当地生活用水需求的创新方法相关。IMPETUS 是一项跨学科提案，汇集了来自气象、地表、地表水和地下水界的科学家以及来自水需求和预测可用性界的社会科学家。该项目由来自三个 NERC 研究中心（NCAS、BGS 和 CEH）、四所顶尖大学（牛津大学、雷丁大学、纽卡斯尔大学和南安普顿大学）、英国气象局和 ECMWF 的国际领先科学家和社会科学家参与，旨在改善对气候变化的预测。英国干旱按月到十年的时间尺度，这将通过改进气象、水文和水需求预测以及如何将它们结合起来产生干旱预测来实现。将与利益相关者一起进行，以确保干旱预测与决策相关。IMPETUS 致力于解决英国干旱和水资源短缺问题的 WP2（干旱预测）问题。我们预计 IMPETUS 将在气象学、水文学、 IMPETUS 的成果还将惠及广泛的利益相关者，其中包括向环境局提供信息。 (EA) 评估 EA 用于水资源管理的水文模型代表干旱的能力，并进一步了解支持关键业务项目（包括水文展望项目）的成果，也将通过改进的方式使气象局和 ECMWF 受益。了解气象干旱的驱动因素，并提出改善业务气象预报系统和气候模型中干旱代表性的建议。特别是，IMPETUS 旨在吸引利益相关者参与并评估他们对干旱预报信息的需求，共同制定干旱指标，以确保他们支持现实世界的决策。通过与利益相关者的初步讨论，包括泰晤士水务的降水预测和农业部门的土壤湿度预测，已经确定了这些内容。

项目成果

Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low-Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?

CMIP5 模型能否再现观测到的低频北大西洋急流变率？

• DOI: http://dx.10.1029/2018gl078965
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Bracegirdle T

The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

高影响阻塞天气系统对气候变化的响应

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2016gl069725
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Kennedy D

Enhancing Drought Monitoring and Early Warning for the United Kingdom through Stakeholder Coinquiries

通过利益相关者调查加强英国的干旱监测和预警

• DOI: http://dx.10.1175/wcas-d-18-0042.1
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Weather, Climate, and Society
• 作者: Hannaford J

Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective

从急流角度看冬季北大西洋涛动的季节可预测性

• DOI: http://dx.10.1029/2019gl084402
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Parker T

Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts

中期预报中格陵兰岛阻塞的集合敏感性分析

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/qj.3391
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Parker T