Cretaceous-Paleocene-Eocene: Exploring Climate and Climate Sensitivity

白垩纪-古新世-始新世：探索气候和气候敏感性

• 批准号: NE/K012479/1
• 负责人: Stuart Robinson
• 金额: $ 18.36万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK012479%2F1
• 关键词: Cretaceous; Paleocene; Eocene; Exploring; Climate

How sensitive is the planet to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide? This crucial question has been the subject of intensive research over the past two decades. Recently, increasing use is being made of past climates, both to evaluate models used for future prediction, and to provide observational constraints on climate sensitivity. However, the relevance of past climates for future sensitivity is yet to be tested. In particular, differing palaeogeography (i.e. continental positions, mountain extents and height, and ocean floor depth) will influence climate and climate sensitivity, but to an extent that is unknown. In this study, we will use a modelling framework to explore the role of palaeogeography in controlling climate and climate sensitivity during the most recent interval of 'greenhouse' climates from the Cretaceous to Eocene (145 to ~35 million years ago; 145-35 Ma). We will investigate uncertainties related to the reconstructed palaeogeographies and the models used. We will evaluate our findings by comparing the model results with observations - compilations of existing data which we will synthesise and re-interpret. The work will provide fascinating insights into how our planet operates on long (multi-million year) timescales, and assess the utility of observations of past warm climates for informing future climate sensitivity. Three recent developments which make this study timely are: (1) Brand new palaeogeographic maps of the Cretaceous to Eocene which improve greatly on previous representations in terms of both accuracy and temporal resolution, (2) A step change in the computing power available means that for the first time we can spin up large ensembles of simulations climates to equilibrium, allowing us to explore uncertainties, and (3) New understanding of the controls and limitations on palaeoclimate proxies means that we can provide a state-of-the-art comparison of our model simulations with the geological record.

地球对增加大气二氧化碳的浓度有多敏感？在过去的二十年中，这个关键问题一直是密集研究的主题。最近，过去气候的使用越来越多，既可以评估用于未来预测的模型，又可以对气候敏感性提供观察性约束。但是，过去气候对未来敏感性的相关性尚待测试。特别是，不同的古地理（即大陆位置，山区延伸和高度以及海底深度）会影响气候和气候敏感性，但在某种程度上是未知的。在这项研究中，我们将使用建模框架来探讨古地理在控制气候和气候敏感性中的作用，这在最近的“温室”气候之间从白垩纪到始世（145至3500万年前； 145-35 MA）。我们将研究与重建的古地理和所使用的模型有关的不确定性。我们将通过将模型结果与观察结果进行比较 - 现有数据的汇编来评估我们的发现，这些数据将合成并重新解释。这项工作将为我们的星球在长期（数百万年）的时间表上运作的方式提供有趣的见解，并评估观察到过去温暖气候的效用，以告知未来的气候敏感性。使这项研究及时的最新进展是：（1）白垩纪到始新世的全新的古地理地理图，从准确性和时间分辨率方面都大大改善了先前的表示，（2）可用计算能力的步骤变化意味着，这意味着我们第一次可以启动模拟的大型启动，并允许Unefective of Equilebiblime dequilebibles of Equilective of Equilective of Equilections of Forections of Forections（3），并且（3）的控制和（3）的控制和（3）古气候代理意味着我们可以将模型模拟与地质记录提供最新的比较。

项目成果

Climate Sensitivity on Geological Timescales Controlled by Nonlinear Feedbacks and Ocean Circulation

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl083574
• 发表时间: 2019-08-28
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Farnsworth, A.;Lunt, D. J.;Robinson, S. A.
• 通讯作者: Robinson, S. A.

The role of temperature in the initiation of the end-Triassic mass extinction

温度在三叠纪末大规模灭绝引发中的作用

• DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103266
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Earth-Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 12.1
• 作者: Petryshyn V

Late Cretaceous Temperature Evolution of the Southern High Latitudes: A TEX 86 Perspective

南部高纬度地区的晚白垩世温度演化：TEX 86 视角

• DOI: 10.1029/2018pa003546
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: O'Connor L

Mid-latitude continental temperatures through the early Eocene in western Europe

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.12.009
• 发表时间: 2017-02-15
• 期刊: EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: Inglis, Gordon N.;Collinson, Margaret E.;Pancost, Richard D.
• 通讯作者: Pancost, Richard D.

Cretaceous sea-surface temperature evolution: Constraints from TEX86 and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes

• DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.012
• 发表时间: 2017-09-01
• 期刊: EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS
• 影响因子: 12.1
• 作者: O'Brien, Charlotte L.;Robinson, Stuart A.;Wrobel, Neil E.
• 通讯作者: Wrobel, Neil E.