A modeling study of the impact of mesoscale air sea interactions over the Gulf Stream on weather and climate

墨西哥湾流中尺度海气相互作用对天气和气候影响的模拟研究

• 批准号: NE/J023760/1
• 负责人: Arnaud Czaja
• 金额: $ 35.83万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ023760%2F1
• 关键词: modeling; study; impact; mesoscale; air

The research described in this proposal aims at assessing the impact of changes in ocean circulation on winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic and Northern Europe (these are the states in which the atmosphere resides most frequently in winter, for example, a state with a strong Jet Stream and warm humid weather over Northern Europe). To do this we will perform the first convection permitting simulations of the dominant cyclone genesis region overlying the Gulf Stream, investigating physical processes relevant to both weather and climate time scales. The approach is novel because:(i) the oceanic forcing considered occurs on the scale of oceanic and atmospheric fronts (10-100km), upstream of the wintertime climate regimes. This physics is not currently taken into account in climate or weather forecast models. (ii) it is rooted in an explicit study of scale interactions over the North Atlantic. The new methodology developed to tackle this interaction relies on a truly interdisciplinary collaboration between weather and climate scientists. The major breakthrough expected from this research, if indeed sensitivity to sea surface temperature via air-sea interactions on the 10-100km scale is found, is that an untapped source of climate and weather predictability will be opened. The research agenda on this topic would also shift towards including an accurate representation of instabilities developing on atmospheric fronts and their interactions with the ocean. The research carried out in the project would provide a solid pilot study of these interactions and a model output database on which a new generation of parameterizations could be developed.The project will also enhance the research carried in other NERC funded programmes such as DIAMET (DIAbatic Influence on Mesoscale structures in ExTra-tropical storms) by extending its relevance to the Gulf Stream region, and RAPID-WATCH (monitoring of the Atlantic ocean circulation at 26N) by providing a new pathway through which changes in ocean circulation can be communicated to the atmosphere.

本提案中描述的研究旨在评估海洋环流变化对北大西洋和北欧冬季气候状况的影响（这些州是冬季大气最常驻留的州，例如，一个具有强烈大气层的州）北欧上空的急流和温暖潮湿的天气）。为此，我们将对墨西哥湾流上空的主要气旋生成区域进行首次对流模拟，研究与天气和气候时间尺度相关的物理过程。该方法是新颖的，因为：（i）所考虑的海洋强迫发生在海洋和大气锋面（10-100公里）的范围内，位于冬季气候状况的上游。目前气候或天气预报模型中尚未考虑到这种物理现象。 (ii) 它植根于对北大西洋尺度相互作用的明确研究。为解决这种相互作用而开发的新方法依赖于天气和气候科学家之间真正的跨学科合作。如果确实发现了 10-100 公里范围内的海气相互作用对海面温度的敏感性，那么这项研究预计的重大突破将是气候和天气预报可预测性的一个未开发的来源。该主题的研究议程也将转向包括准确表示大气锋面发展的不稳定性及其与海洋的相互作用。该项目中进行的研究将为这些相互作用提供可靠的试点研究，并提供一个可以开发新一代参数化的模型输出数据库。该项目还将加强其他 NERC 资助项目中进行的研究，例如 DIAMET（DIAbatic）通过将其与墨西哥湾流区域的相关性扩展到对热带风暴中中尺度结构的影响，以及通过提供改变变化的新途径来实现 RAPID-WATCH（监测北纬 26 度的大西洋环流）在海洋环流中可以传达到大气中。

项目成果

Contribution of the cold sector of extratropical cyclones to mean state features over the Gulf Stream in winter

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.3058
• 发表时间: 2017-04
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: B. Vannière;A. Czaja;H. Dacre

A potential vorticity signature for the cold sector of winter extratropical cyclones

冬季温带气旋冷区的位涡特征

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.2662
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Vannière B