Climate Change Predictions with a Fully Resolved Stratosphere

完全解析平流层的气候变化预测

• 批准号: NE/H024409/2
• 负责人: Tim Woollings
• 金额: $ 0.57万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH024409%2F2
• 关键词: Climate; Change; Predictions; Fully; Resolved

Climate model simulations for the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are currently being prepared by climate modelling centres around the world. In this joint project with the Met Office, fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations will be performed and analysed using a 'high-top' version of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model that extends to 85km and therefore fully resolves processes in the stratosphere. Simulations of the past (1860-present) and into the future (to 2100) will be carried out. The project will examine the climate change signals predicted by the fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere model and investigate the stratospheric influence on surface climate. These aims will be achieved by careful analysis of the model runs, together with additional experiments to isolate processes, test mechanisms and improve statistical significance. Particular emphasis will be placed on (a) regional and seasonal patterns of surface change, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation and impacts over Europe, and (b) detection and attribution studies, exploiting the well-known tropospheric warming / stratospheric cooling signature of anthropogenic influence. Comparisons will be carried out with observations, with corresponding low-top model runs that do not fully resolve the stratosphere and with runs from high-top models carried out by other international climate modelling groups.

世界各地的气候模拟中心目前正在为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）下一次评估准备气候模型模拟。在这个与英国气象局的联合项目中，将使用英国气象局哈德利中心气候模型的“高顶”版本进行和分析完全耦合的大气-海洋模型模拟，该模型延伸至85公里，因此可以完全解决平流层中的过程。将模拟过去（1860 年至今）和未来（至 2100 年）。该项目将研究海洋-对流层-平流层全耦合模型预测的气候变化信号，并研究平流层对地表气候的影响。这些目标将通过仔细分析模型运行以及隔离流程、测试机制和提高统计显着性的额外实验来实现。将特别重视（a）地表变化的区域和季节模式，特别是北大西洋涛动及其对欧洲的影响，以及（b）利用众所周知的人为影响的对流层变暖/平流层变冷特征进行检测和归因研究。将与观测结果、未完全解析平流层的相应低顶模型运行以及其他国际气候建模小组进行的高顶模型运行进行比较。

项目成果

Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and the role of resolution

北半球冬季阻塞的多模型分析：模型偏差和分辨率的作用

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/jgrd.50231
• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: Atmospheres
• 作者: Anstey J

Atmospheric blocking and its relation to jet changes in a future climate

大气阻塞及其与未来气候中急流变化的关系

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1699-7
• 发表时间: 2013-02-17
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: H. Vries;T. Woollings;J. Anstey;R. Haarsma;W. Hazeleger
• 通讯作者: W. Hazeleger