Orographic Flows and the Climate of the Antarctic Peninsula (OFCAP)

南极半岛的地形流和气候 (OFCAP)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/G014124/1
负责人：
John King
金额：
$ 63.11万
依托单位：
British Antarctic Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2009
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2009 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG014124%2F1
关键词：
Orographic Flows Climate Antarctic Peninsula

项目摘要

The Antarctic Peninsula is currently one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Large environmental changes have occurred as a result of this warming, most notably the retreat and rapid disintegration of some of the floating ice shelves that fringe the Peninsula. Subsequent to the loss of ice shelves, glaciers draining the Peninsula ice sheet have accelerated, contributing to global sea level rise. The forces driving this rapid regional warming are not fully understood, but analysis of limited climatiological data from the region suggests a link between rapid summer warming on the eastern side of the Peninsula and an increase in the strength of the prevailing westerly winds. The strengthening of the westerlies has already been attributed, with some degree of confidence, to atmospheric circulation changes associated with anthropogenic forcing, particularly stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in greenhouse gases. It is thus highly probable that anthropogenic forcing is contributing to the rapid warming of the Peninsula. We propose an integrated programme of field observations, analysis and modelling aimed at understanding of how the westerly winds interact with the mountains of the Antarctic Peninsula and how these interactions control the climate of the eastern side of the Peninsula. Our field observations will be concentrated into a one-month (January 2011) intensive field campaign. During this period, atmospheric flow along a transect across the Antarctic Peninsula mountains at around 67 degrees south will be observed using an instrumented aircraft and four automatic weather stations along the line of the transect. Atmospheric conditions on the upwind (western) and downwind (eastern) sides of the mountains will be measured using balloon-borne radiosondes while the fluxes of energy (solar and terrestrial radiation, turbulent heat fluxes) that drive surface melting will be monitored at a camp on the Larsen Ice Shelf to the east of the Peninsula. In order to obtain a more complete picture of the flow across the Peninsula, we will use these observations in conjunction with the results of high-resolution atmospheric model simulations. Observations and model results will, together, provide new insight into the links between atmospheric flow, orography and surface climate in this region. Having established these links, we will use our new understanding of the controls on regional climate to develop soundly-based future (next 100 years) climate scenarios for this region, using predictions of the changes in large-scale atmospheric flow from the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results of our work will be of value to many groups of scientists working on environmental change in the Antarctic Peninsula and its wider impacts, including glaciologists, oceanographers and marine and terrestrial biologists. The proposal will also contribute to improving the performance of numerical weather prediction and climate models in mountainous areas generally.

南极半岛目前是地球上最快速变暖的地区之一。由于这种变暖，发生了巨大的环境变化，最著名的是，一些浮游在半岛的浮冰架的撤退和快速分解。在失去冰搁板之后，排出半岛冰盖的冰川加速了，这导致了全球海平面上升。驾驶这种快速区域变暖的力量尚未完全了解，但是对该地区的有限气候数据的分析表明，在半岛东侧的夏季快速变暖与盛行的西风风的强度增加之间的联系。西风的加强已经被归因于与人为强迫，尤其是平流层臭氧耗竭和温室气体增加有关的大气循环变化。因此，人为强迫有可能导致半岛的快速变暖。我们提出了一个综合的田间观测，分析和建模计划，旨在了解西风如何与南极半岛的山脉相互作用，以及这些相互作用如何控制半岛东侧的气候。我们的现场观察结果将集中在一个月（2011年1月）的密集现场运动中。在此期间，将使用仪器的飞机和四个自动气象站沿着横断面线沿着南极半岛山脉的横除横切山脉的大气流动。山上的大气条件（西部）和下风（东部）将使用气球传播的辐射仪测量，而能量的通量（太阳能和陆地辐射，湍流热通量）将驱动表面熔化的磁通量在山甲植物东部的Larsen Ice的营地上进行监测。为了获得整个半岛流动的更完整的图片，我们将使用这些观察结果与高分辨率大气模型模拟的结果结合使用。观察结果和模型结果将共同提供有关该地区大气流，公园和表面气候之间联系的新见解。建立了这些链接后，我们将利用对区域气候的控制的新理解，为该地区开发基于良好的未来（接下来的100年）气候场景，利用对政府间小组间气候变化的第四次评估报告的大气流量的变化进行了预测。对于许多从事南极半岛环境变化及其更广泛影响的科学家，我们的工作结果将是有价值的，包括冰川学家，海洋学家，海洋和陆地生物学家。该提案还将有助于改善通常在山区的数字天气预测和气候模型的表现。