Graduating in Austerity: Do Welfare Cuts Affect the Career Path of University Students?

紧缩毕业：福利削减会影响大学生的职业道路吗？

• 批准号: ES/Z502595/1
• 负责人: Taheya Tarannum
• 金额: $ 18.41万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FZ502595%2F1
• 关键词: Graduating; Austerity; Do; Welfare; Cuts

Austerity policies often follow a period of fiscal stimulus. For example, the UK government's borrowing is estimated to have reached approximately 17% of the GDP during the COVID-19 pandemic, marking the highest rate of borrowing since World War II. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the government has implemented or considered various measures to curb public spending and transfers. While austerity measures are typically temporary in nature, they can unintentionally yield lasting effects on the labour market prospects of university graduates. This is because the conditions in the labour market at the time of entry can exert a persistent influence over the careers of university students (Kahn, 2010; Oreopoulos et al., 2012; Altonji et al., 2016; Schwandt and VonWachter, 2019).To understand how welfare cut affects the career path of graduates, we propose to study the introduction of the Welfare Reform Act 2012 by the British government. The extent of the cut varied substantially with the worst-hit local authorities losing around four times as much as the least-affected local authorities (Beatty and Fothergill, 2013). The reform exhibited a strong negative fiscal multiplier with a sizeable reduction in production (Fetzer, 2019) and employment (Adelino and Goldman, 2022), suggesting that job seekers in severely affected areas faced challenging labour market conditions. Moreover, a weaker safety net could increase the first-time job seekers' vulnerability to cope with the shocks since early in their careers many of them do not have enough resources to smooth consumption.To examine whether welfare cuts had detrimental effects on the transition of young adults from university to the workforce, we first study the effects on their likelihood of getting employed and initial earnings. Second, we examine whether these adverse effects on labour market entry had a persistent influence on their careers in terms of earning profiles and job quality. Third, to understand the underlying mechanism and heterogeneity, we explore the differential labour market outcomes for graduates majoring in different disciplines of study and by gender, ethnicity, parental education, and socioeconomic background. This exercise will provide us with additional insights into which segments of graduates are more susceptible to the impact of welfare cuts.An empirical challenge to studying the effect of austerity on graduates is that survey data can only give fragmented information making it impossible to get a complete picture of how university graduates from different educational backgrounds transition to the labour market. The linked administrative data available through the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) programme fills up this gap. Also, the variation in the size of expenditure cut across localities allows us to compare university graduates in localities that experienced deeper welfare cuts with those from less-affected areas controlling for any pre-existing differences across localities and long-term labour market trends.Overall, the findings of this study will provide a better understanding of how graduates cope with labour market shocks induced by austerity policies. Between 2012 and 2015, 1.5 million students obtained their first degree (Source: HESA). Our results will shed light on whether a weaker labour market combined with a weaker safety net had a lasting impact on their careers. This is important to understand as it could affect the well-being of an entire cohort and have implications for within- and across-cohort inequality. The findings could also be useful in designing austerity policies shielding the most vulnerable.

紧缩政策通常紧接着一段时期的财政刺激措施。例如，在COVID-19大流行期间，英国政府的借款估计已达到GDP的约17%，这是二战以来的最高借款率。疫情发生后，政府已实施或考虑采取各种措施来抑制公共支出和转移支付。虽然紧缩措施通常是暂时的，但它们可能会无意中对大学毕业生的劳动力市场前景产生持久影响。这是因为进入劳动力市场时的状况会对大学生的职业生涯产生持续的影响（Kahn，2010；Oreopoulos等，2012；Altonji等，2016；Schwandt和VonWachter，2019）为了了解福利削减如何影响毕业生的职业道路，我们建议研究英国2012年福利改革法案的出台 政府。削减的程度差异很大，受灾最严重的地方当局的损失大约是受影响最轻的地方当局的四倍（Beatty 和 Fothergill，2013 年）。改革表现出强劲的负财政乘数，导致生产（Fetzer，2019）和就业（Adelino 和 Goldman，2022）大幅减少，这表明受影响严重地区的求职者面临着充满挑战的劳动力市场条件。此外，较弱的安全网可能会增加首次求职者应对冲击的脆弱性，因为他们中的许多人在职业生涯早期没有足够的资源来平稳消费。从大学年轻人到劳动力市场，我们首先研究这对他们就业可能性和初始收入的影响。其次，我们研究了这些对劳动力市场进入的不利影响是否对他们的职业生涯在收入状况和工作质量方面产生持续影响。第三，为了了解潜在机制和异质性，我们探讨了不同学科专业的毕业生按性别、种族、父母教育和社会经济背景的差异劳动力市场结果。这项练习将为我们提供更多关于哪些毕业生群体更容易受到福利削减影响的见解。研究紧缩政策对毕业生的影响的一个实证挑战是，调查数据只能提供碎片化的信息，因此无法获得完整的信息。来自不同教育背景的大学毕业生如何过渡到劳动力市场的图景。通过纵向教育成果 (LEO) 计划提供的关联管理数据填补了这一空白。此外，各地支出削减规模的差异使我们能够将福利削减幅度更大的地区的大学毕业生与受影响较小地区的大学毕业生进行比较，并控制地区之间先前存在的差异和长期劳动力市场趋势。 ，这项研究的结果将有助于更好地了解毕业生如何应对紧缩政策引起的劳动力市场冲击。 2012 年至 2015 年间，150 万名学生获得了第一个学位（来源：HESA）。我们的研究结果将揭示疲软的劳动力市场和较弱的安全网是否对他们的职业生涯产生持久影响。理解这一点很重要，因为它可能会影响整个群体的福祉，并对群体内和群体间的不平等产生影响。研究结果还可能有助于设计保护最弱势群体的紧缩政策。