Contemporary Long-Term Homicide Trends in England and Wales in the Period 1977-2019 and a Comparison with Non-Lethal Violence Trends

1977-2019 年英格兰和威尔士当代长期凶杀趋势以及与非致命暴力趋势的比较

• 批准号: ES/X000575/1
• 负责人: Emily Gray
• 金额: $ 21.85万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FX000575%2F1
• 关键词: Contemporary; Long; Term; Homicide; Trends

Homicide is undoubtedly the most serious form of violence, resulting in substantial and widespread social, financial, and economic harm. Not only does it result in the physical loss of life, but also in problems for surviving families and friends, the neighbourhoods and communities where the crime was committed, and broader society. The most serious form of violence, homicide, declined in England and Wales between the early 2000s and 2014, after which the homicide rate rose again. Much work remains to be done to the drivers of homicide trends; a significant challenge to societies globally, but especially so in England and Wales where research remains in its infancy. This project aims to examine and to better understand the patterns in rising and falling homicide rates in England and Wales over a period of four decades (1977-2019). We will do this by directing special attention to the following individual and aggregate level characteristics, including:(i) the demographic characteristics of victims/offenders involved in homicides (e.g. age, sex, and social background);(ii) the circumstantial characteristics of homicide incidents (e.g. location, weapon use, alcohol use);(iii) the (aggregate-level) characteristics relating to lifestyle patterns/routine activities;(iv) the wider socio-economic conditions, cultural values; and(v) the role played by public perceptions and social attitudes in responding to homicide trends.In particular, we will (a) disaggregate and compare distinct homicide subtypes to scrutinize and better understand changes in homicide trends, using more comprehensive typologies based on offender-victim relationships and the motives/circumstances of the homicide; and (b) compare lethal violence trends with trends in non-lethal violence by dissecting violence subtypes to allow for a more accurate examination of changes in violent crimes, and to assess similarities and differences in patterns of lethal and non-lethal violence in England and Wales.Investigating the role these factors play in facilitating trends in homicide over time is critical for advancing our theoretical and empirical knowledge in this area, enabling guided policy efforts to further help reduce homicide and to potentially help mitigate further spikes.To achieve the project's aims, we will draw on highly reliable, robust, large-scale datasets, including the Homicide Index (HI, 1977-2019), the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019), and the British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA, 1983-2019). Data from the HI will allow for an extensive exploration of long-term patterns in homicide trends and will enable further refinement of disaggregating different subtypes of homicides; the two other sources will allow us to relate variables on lifestyle/routine activities at aggregate level, public perception/attitudes, and socioeconomic factors in a representative population sample. To analyse the data, multivariate trend analysis will be used to identify significant influencing factors driving changes in homicide trends. Lastly, one report will be produced, and four articles will be published in peer-reviewed international journals.The project will be conducted by an interdisciplinary team of experienced researchers with (a) a background in criminology, sociology, social policy and economics, (b) an interest in homicide, violence and crime in general; and in processes of change, both at the individual level, and the societal level; (c) expertise in quantitative research methods, with particular experience in social statistics, and working with large-scale and sensitive datasets; and (d) a track record of undertaking a multitude of successful ESRC-projects using secondary data analyses to inform theory, practice, and policy. This will ensure that the project is performed successfully and efficiently with the highest quality standard.

无疑是最严重的暴力形式，导致了巨大和广泛的社会，财务和经济伤害。这不仅导致人身丧失生命的损失，而且还导致了幸存的家庭和朋友，犯罪犯罪的社区和社区以及更广泛的社会的问题。在2000年代初至2014年期间，英格兰和威尔士的最严重的暴力形式，凶杀案下降，此后凶杀率再次上升。凶杀趋势的驱动因素还有许多工作要做。对全球社会的一个重大挑战，但尤其是在仍处于起步阶段的英格兰和威尔士的情况下。该项目旨在检查并更好地了解英格兰和威尔士在四十年（1977-2019）的凶杀率上升和下降的模式。我们将通过对以下个人和汇总水平的特征进行特殊关注来做到这一点，包括：（i）受害者/罪犯的人口统计特征（例如，年龄，性别，性别和社会背景）；（iii）杀人事件的环境特征（例如，位置，武器使用，酒精使用，（iii）相关的特征（III）属性/跑步的特征;更广泛的社会经济条件，文化价值观； （v）公众的看法和社会态度在应对凶杀趋势中所扮演的角色。尤其是，我们将（a）分类和比较独特的杀人型亚型，以使用基于更全面的凶杀率趋势的审查和更好地理解凶杀趋势的变化，并基于更全面的类型。 and (b) compare lethal violence trends with trends in non-lethal violence by dissecting violence subtypes to allow for a more accurate examination of changes in violent crimes, and to assess similarities and differences in patterns of lethal and non-lethal violence in England and Wales.Investigating the role these factors play in facilitating trends in homicide over time is critical for advancing our theoretical and empirical knowledge in this area, enabling guided policy efforts to further help reduce homicide and to potentially help mitigate further spikes.To achieve the project's aims, we will draw on highly reliable, robust, large-scale datasets, including the Homicide Index (HI, 1977-2019), the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019), and the British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA, 1983-2019）。来自HI的数据将允许对凶杀趋势中的长期模式进行广泛的探索，并能够进一步分解凶杀的不同亚型；另外两个来源将使我们能够在代表性人群样本中以总级别的生活方式/常规活动，公众的看法/态度和社会经济因素联系起来。为了分析数据，将使用多元趋势分析来确定驱动凶杀趋势变化的重要影响因素。最后，将制作一份报告，并将在同行评审的国际期刊上发表四篇文章。该项目将由一个跨学科的经验丰富的研究人员组成的团队（a）（a）（a）犯罪学，社会学，社会政策和经济学背景，（b）对杀人案，暴力和犯罪的兴趣。以及在个人层面和社会层面的变化过程中； （c）定量研究方法方面的专业知识，具有社会统计的特殊经验，并使用大规模和敏感的数据集； （d）使用二级数据分析为理论，实践和政策提供多种成功的ESRC项目的记录。这将确保通过最高质量标准成功有效地执行项目。