GLOBAL-EX: A GLOBAL theory for EXtreme land temperatures in a changing climate

GLOBAL-EX：气候变化中极端陆地温度的全球理论

• 批准号: EP/Y027868/1
• 负责人: Michael Byrne
• 金额: $ 150.72万
• 依托单位: University of St Andrews
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FY027868%2F1
• 关键词: GLOBAL; EX; theory; EXtreme; land; GLOBAL; EX; theory; EXtreme; land

Extreme hot temperatures are increasing in frequency and intensity as climate warms. The impacts of extreme heat are widespread and severe, with parts of the world potentially becoming uninhabitable by the end of this century. Yet the future of extreme temperatures is highly uncertain: Climate models project a wide range of responses, making it difficult to prepare for the escalating effects of extreme heat. This large uncertainty is compounded by the lack of a global theory for extreme temperatures in a changing climate, representing a fundamental challenge to our understanding of the climate system with critical societal impacts.GLOBAL-EX will combine a hierarchy of simulations, observational analyses and physical theory to transform the state of the art in the science of extreme temperatures. The overarching goal is to build a global theory for extreme temperatures over land in a changing climate. Two steps are required to achieve this goal: First, I will perform idealised simulations spanning a wide range of climate states to identify the large-scale constraints imposed by atmospheric dynamics on extreme-temperature events. Second, I will use novel regional simulations together with analyses of observational data to decompose the processes controlling land humidity on hot days, which are tightly coupled to extreme temperatures. The new theory will be applied to quantify the drivers of trends in extreme temperatures over recent decades and to understand the behaviour of extreme heat in response to future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Not only will this project provide a major step forward in our fundamental understanding of the climate system, GLOBAL-EX is also expected to identify new pathways to narrowing large uncertainties in projections of extreme temperatures, with benefits for vulnerable societies throughout the world.

随着气候温暖，极端热温的频率和强度正在增加。极端热量的影响是普遍且严重的，到本世纪末，世界各地的部分地区可能变得无人居住。然而，极端温度的未来是高度不确定的：气候模型投射了广泛的反应，因此很难为极度热量的升级效果做准备。这种巨大的不确定性使缺乏在气候变化中的极端温度的全球理论更加复杂，这代表了我们对气候系统的理解带来的基本挑战。Global-ex将结合模拟的层次，观察性分析和物理理论的层次结构，以改变极端温度科学的艺术状态。总体目标是在不断变化的气候下建立一个在土地上的极端温度的全球理论。要实现这一目标，需要两个步骤：首先，我将进行跨越广泛气候状态的理想化模拟，以确定大气动态对极端温度事件的大规模限制。其次，我将使用新型的区域模拟以及观察数据的分析来分解在炎热日期内控制土地湿度的过程，这些过程紧密耦合到极端温度。新理论将用于量化近几十年来极端温度的趋势驱动因素，并了解极端热量的行为，以应对温室气体浓度的未来变化。该项目不仅可以在我们对气候系统的基本理解中迈出重要的一步，而且还期望全球EX还可以确定新的途径，以缩小极端温度预测的巨大不确定性，并为全世界的脆弱社会带来好处。