Fiscal Policy, Productivity, and Growth: New Data and New Approaches

财政政策、生产力和增长：新数据和新方法

• 批准号: EP/X025543/1
• 负责人: Ethan Ilzetzki
• 金额: $ 147.79万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FX025543%2F1
• 关键词: Fiscal; Policy; Productivity; Growth; New

This project aims to break new ground on the effects of fiscal policy on productivity and growth. A large theoretical and empirical literature studies the effects of government spending and taxation on the macro-economy and posits a Keynesian or a classical (labor) supply-side role for fiscal policy. I propose studying other under-explored channels through which fiscal policy may affect the economy. The first part of the proposal focuses on government spending and will rely on new data sources ranging from archival data from the Second World War to data extracted from post-war textual sources. Archival data on US production, procurement, and capital sales to study the effects of government spending and the spatial distribution of capital. I will study the effects of government purchases on TFP: Observed learning-by-doing in production catalyzed the early endogenous growth theory but hasn't yet been studied with modern empirical tools. Further, by 1941, the US economy was in full employment and I will investigate whether these high degrees of capacity utilization played a role in the learning process, i.e. does a "high pressure" economy lead to more innovation. Government-purchased capital that was resold at war-end give exogenous spatial variation in physical capital allowing a study the importance of capital (mis-)allocation. Post-war R&D military priorities will be used to investigate the government's effect on the direction of technological progress and its centrality in advancing "moonshot" research. The second part of the project will study the dynamic effects of tax reforms in modern macro data. Tax changes involve changes to both tax rates and the tax base. A theoretical framework I am developing suggests that existing empirical estimates may be biased because they confound changes to these two policy dimensions. I aim to highlight these theoretical transmission channels and provide theory-based empirical estimates that disentangle them.

该项目旨在就财政政策对生产率和增长的影响开辟新天地。大量的理论和实证文献研究了政府支出和税收对宏观经济的影响，并为财政政策假设了凯恩斯主义或古典（劳动力）供给方角色。我建议研究财政政策可能影响经济的其他尚未充分探索的渠道。该提案的第一部分重点关注政府支出，并将依赖新的数据源，从第二次世界大战的档案数据到从战后文本来源提取的数据。有关美国生产、采购和资本销售的档案数据，用于研究政府支出和资本空间分布的影响。我将研究政府购买对全要素生产率的影响：观察到的生产中的边干边学催化了早期的内生增长理论，但尚未用现代实证工具进行研究。此外，到1941年，美国经济已达到充分就业，我将研究这些高程度的产能利用率是否在学习过程中发挥了作用，即“高压”经济是否会带来更多创新。政府购买的资本在战争结束时转售，使实物资本具有外生的空间变化，从而可以研究资本（错误）配置的重要性。战后研发军事优先事项将用于调查政府对技术进步方向的影响及其在推进“登月”研究中的中心作用。该项目的第二部分将研究现代宏观数据中税收改革的动态影响。税收变化涉及税率和税基的变化。我正在开发的理论框架表明，现有的实证估计可能存在偏差，因为它们混淆了这两个政策维度的变化。我的目的是强调这些理论传播渠道，并提供基于理论的实证估计来理清它们。