COVID-19: Fast multi-shot epidemic interventions for post lockdown Covid-19 mitigation: Open-loop mitigation strategies

COVID-19：锁定后缓解 Covid-19 的快速多点流行病干预措施：开环缓解策略

• 批准号: EP/V018450/1
• 负责人: Robert Shorten
• 金额: $ 14.43万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FV018450%2F1
• 关键词: COVID; 19; Fast; multi; shot

The objective of this 4-month SPRINT is to design and validate new exit-strategies from the current lockdown policy that actively suppress COVID-19, while allowing significant economic activity. Currently proposed exit-strategies suggest that intermittent lockdowns, in addition to contact tracing, masking, and other measures, may be necessary until an effective vaccine is found. Most of the these propose using data-driven feedback signals, such as hospital admissions, to initiate lockdowns, with a key design consideration being the capacity of the healthcare system. The difficulty with this approach is timing. Intervene too early, and one simply shifts the peak of ill people to a later date, whereas too late an intervention will not limit the peak of infections. The issue of timing is exacerbated by the virus having up to a 14-day incubation period and an initial exponential growth rate. Thus, the problem of observing the true state of the epidemic, in the face of exponential growth, makes the effectiveness of any data-driven feedback policy extremely sensitive to the timing of intervention. From a classical perspective, controlling locally unstable systems, as this is, with time-varying time-delays, is known to be a frontier problem in control engineering. Our suggestion is to circumvent this difficulty by developing periodic open-loop lockdown strategies over short timescales. Such policies, will help suppressing the virus and allow predictable periodic periods of lockdown, thereby facilitating economic activity. The policies will be validated on advanced, realistic epidemiological mathematical models and data, and will be developed for national and international compartmental scenarios.

这个为期 4 个月的 SPRINT 的目标是设计和验证当前​​封锁政策的新退出策略，积极抑制 COVID-19，同时允许开展重大经济活动。目前提出的退出策略表明，在找到有效的疫苗之前，除了接触者追踪、掩蔽和其他措施之外，可能还需要间歇性封锁。其中大多数建议使用数据驱动的反馈信号（例如入院情况）来启动封锁，其中一个关键的设计考虑因素是医疗保健系统的容量。这种方法的困难在于时机。干预太早，只会将患病高峰推迟到较晚的日期，而干预太晚，则无法限制感染高峰。由于该病毒有长达 14 天的潜伏期和最初的指数增长率，因此时间问题变得更加严重。因此，面对指数级增长，观察疫情真实状况的问题使得任何数据驱动的反馈政策的有效性对干预时机都极其敏感。从经典的角度来看，控制具有时变时滞的局部不稳定系统被认为是控制工程中的前沿问题。我们的建议是通过在短时间内制定定期开环锁定策略来规避这一困难。此类政策将有助于抑制病毒并允许可预测的周期性封锁，从而促进经济活动。这些政策将根据先进、现实的流行病学数学模型和数据进行验证，并将针对国家和国际分区情景制定。

项目成果

A comparison of centrality measures and their role in controlling the spread in epidemic networks

• DOI: 10.1080/00207179.2023.2204969
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: International Journal of Control
• 影响因子: 2.1
• 作者: Ekaterina Dudkina;M. Bin;Jane Breen;E. Crisostomi;P. Ferraro;Stephen J. Kirkland;Jakub Marecek;R. Murray-Smith;T. Parisini;L. Stone;S. Yilmaz;R. Shorten

Kemeny-based testing for COVID-19.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242401
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Yilmaz S;Dudkina E;Bin M;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Murray-Smith R;Parisini T;Stone L;Shorten R
• 通讯作者: Shorten R

Post-lockdown abatement of COVID-19 by fast periodic switching.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008604
• 发表时间: 2021-01
• 期刊: PLoS computational biology
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Bin M;Cheung PYK;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Lhachemi H;Murray-Smith R;Myant C;Parisini T;Shorten R;Stein S;Stone L
• 通讯作者: Stone L

Hysteresis-based supervisory control with application to non-pharmaceutical containment of COVID-19.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.07.001
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Annual reviews in control
• 影响因子: 9.4
• 作者: Bin M;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Murray-Smith R;Parisini T;Shorten R;Stein S
• 通讯作者: Stein S