COVID-19: Fast multi-shot epidemic interventions for post lockdown Covid-19 mitigation: Open-loop mitigation strategies

COVID-19：锁定后缓解 Covid-19 的快速多点流行病干预措施：开环缓解策略

• 批准号: EP/V018450/1
• 负责人: Robert Shorten
• 金额: $ 14.43万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FV018450%2F1
• 关键词: COVID; 19; Fast; multi; shot

The objective of this 4-month SPRINT is to design and validate new exit-strategies from the current lockdown policy that actively suppress COVID-19, while allowing significant economic activity. Currently proposed exit-strategies suggest that intermittent lockdowns, in addition to contact tracing, masking, and other measures, may be necessary until an effective vaccine is found. Most of the these propose using data-driven feedback signals, such as hospital admissions, to initiate lockdowns, with a key design consideration being the capacity of the healthcare system. The difficulty with this approach is timing. Intervene too early, and one simply shifts the peak of ill people to a later date, whereas too late an intervention will not limit the peak of infections. The issue of timing is exacerbated by the virus having up to a 14-day incubation period and an initial exponential growth rate. Thus, the problem of observing the true state of the epidemic, in the face of exponential growth, makes the effectiveness of any data-driven feedback policy extremely sensitive to the timing of intervention. From a classical perspective, controlling locally unstable systems, as this is, with time-varying time-delays, is known to be a frontier problem in control engineering. Our suggestion is to circumvent this difficulty by developing periodic open-loop lockdown strategies over short timescales. Such policies, will help suppressing the virus and allow predictable periodic periods of lockdown, thereby facilitating economic activity. The policies will be validated on advanced, realistic epidemiological mathematical models and data, and will be developed for national and international compartmental scenarios.

这个为期4个月的冲刺的目的是从当前的锁定政策中设计和验证新的出口策略，该政策会积极抑制Covid-19，同时允许重大的经济活动。目前提出的出口策略表明，除了接触跟踪，掩盖和其他措施外，还需要间歇性锁定，直到找到有效的疫苗为止。其中大多数建议使用数据驱动的反馈信号（例如医院入院）启动锁定，其中关键的设计考虑因素是医疗保健系统的能力。这种方法的困难是时间安排。干预过早，一个人只是将病人的峰值转移到以后的日期，而太晚的干预不会限制感染的峰值。在14天的孵育期和初始指数增长率的病毒中，时间安排问题加剧了。因此，面对指数增长，观察流行病的真实状态的问题使任何数据驱动的反馈政策的有效性对干预时间非常敏感。从经典的角度来看，控制本地不稳定的系统，因为随着时间变化的时间延长，已知是控制工程中的前沿问题。我们的建议是通过在短时间内制定定期开放环锁定策略来避免这一困难。这样的政策将有助于抑制病毒并允许可预测的周期性锁定期，从而促进经济活动。这些政策将在高级，现实的流行病学数学模型和数据上进行验证，并将针对国家和国际分区场景制定。

项目成果

A comparison of centrality measures and their role in controlling the spread in epidemic networks

• DOI: 10.1080/00207179.2023.2204969
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: International Journal of Control
• 影响因子: 2.1
• 作者: Ekaterina Dudkina;M. Bin;Jane Breen;E. Crisostomi;P. Ferraro;Stephen J. Kirkland;Jakub Marecek;R. Murray-Smith;T. Parisini;L. Stone;S. Yilmaz;R. Shorten

Kemeny-based testing for COVID-19.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242401
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Yilmaz S;Dudkina E;Bin M;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Murray-Smith R;Parisini T;Stone L;Shorten R
• 通讯作者: Shorten R

Hysteresis-based supervisory control with application to non-pharmaceutical containment of COVID-19.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.07.001
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Annual reviews in control
• 影响因子: 9.4
• 作者: Bin M;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Murray-Smith R;Parisini T;Shorten R;Stein S
• 通讯作者: Stein S

Post-lockdown abatement of COVID-19 by fast periodic switching.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008604
• 发表时间: 2021-01
• 期刊: PLoS computational biology
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Bin M;Cheung PYK;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Lhachemi H;Murray-Smith R;Myant C;Parisini T;Shorten R;Stein S;Stone L
• 通讯作者: Stone L