ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS, & FERTILITY

经济机会、政府计划、

• 批准号: 2203240
• 负责人: PAUL J GERTLER
• 金额: $ 15.84万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-04-01 至 1997-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2203240
• 关键词: Indonesia; amenorrhea; community health services; contraceptives; culture; epidemiology; family planning; fertility; health behavior; health care service availability; health care service utilization; health education; human data; longitudinal human study; marriage /marital status; racial /ethnic difference; socioeconomics; statistics /biometry

Family planning programs have become critical elements of most developing country population control policies. Despite the generally widespread acceptance of the key role of family planning programs in reducing fertility, there is little consensus regarding the programs importance relative to the roles of general economic development and improving women;s status. To address this dialogue, we propose to investigate the following questions: To what extent can be recent fertility decline in Indonesia be explained by the following factors: improved development, and improvement in women's education and economic status? Which elements of the Indonesian family planning program have the greatest impact on fertility: the distribution information, education and communication activities? Do the effects of family planning program activities vary for different groups? For example, does fertility decline more quickly when public family planning program infrastructure is expanded in communities that are in earlier stages of the fertility transition that when infrastructure is expanded in areas at later stages of the transition? How have the expansion of the public family planning program and private family planning services, economic development, and improvements in women's status influenced the major proximate causes of fertility: contraceptive use, marriage and postpartum amenorrhea? Are there time lags in the impact of family planning program components on fertility and its proximate causes? To what extent do expansion of public program components, better access to private family planning services, contraceptive methods to more effective methods? In other words, to what extent do family planning programs affect contraceptive mix versus prevalence? Our methods unify he demographic proximate determinants and economic reduced-form models of fertility. Applications of the proximate determinants model for program evaluation have often yielded different conclusions about family planning programs than have applications of reduced-form "demand for children" models. We demonstrate the compatibility of the two approaches and develop methods to directly compare their results. We will also address the statistical problem raised by the fact that policy maker allocate program inputs for optimal impact, rather than randomly. To control for this endogeneity of program placement, we will use a community fixed effects estimator. The results are interpreted as the effects of changes in the program inputs on changes in fertility within communities.

计划生育计划已成为大多数发展中的关键要素 国家人口控制政策。 尽管普遍普遍 接受计划生育计划在减少的关键作用 生育力，关于计划的重要性几乎没有共识 相对于一般经济发展和改善的作用 妇女的地位。 为了解决这一对话，我们建议调查 以下问题： 印度尼西亚最近的生育能力在多大程度上可以解释 根据以下因素：改善发展和改善 妇女的教育和经济状况？ 印尼计划生育计划的哪些要素具有 对生育能力的最大影响：分销信息，教育和 沟通活动？ 进行计划生育计划活动的效果不同 小组？例如，公众的生育能力会更快地下降 计划生育计划计划基础设施在社区中扩展 处于生育过渡的早期阶段 在过渡的后期阶段，基础设施扩大了？ 公共计划生育计划和私人计划的扩展如何 计划生育服务，经济发展和改进 妇女的地位影响了生育能力的主要近端原因： 避孕药，婚姻和产后闭经？ 计划生育计划组件的影响是否有时间滞后 关于生育能力及其最直接的原因？ 公共计划组件的扩展在多大程度上，更好地访问 到私人计划生育服务，避孕方法 有效的方法？换句话说，计划生育在多大程度上 程序会影响避孕混合与流行率？ 我们的方法统一了人口统计学的决定因素和经济 降低了生育能力的模型。 近端的应用 计划评估的决定因素模型通常会产生不同的不同 关于计划生育计划的结论比申请 减少了“对儿童的需求”模型。 我们证明了 两种方法的兼容性并开发直接的方法 比较他们的结果。 我们还将解决统计问题 由于政策制定者为最佳分配计划输入而提出的事实 影响，而不是随机。 控制该计划的内生性 放置，我们将使用社区固定效应估计器。 结果 被解释为程序输入中变化的影响 社区内生育的变化。