Framework for Behavioral Risk Models of Alcohol Problems

酒精问题行为风险模型框架

基本信息

批准号：
10318531
负责人：
Christina Furber Mair
金额：
$ 38.93万
依托单位：
PACIFIC INSTITUTE FOR RES AND EVALUATION
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1983
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1983-09-29 至 2022-12-28
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10318531
关键词：
Alcohol abuse Alcohol consumption Alcohols Behavior Behavioral California Censuses Characteristics Child Child Abuse Child Abuse and Neglect Communities Commuting Data Development Eating Elements Environment Epidemiology Etiology Event Family Geographic Distribution Geography Goals Grant Health Heavy Drinking Heterogeneity Home Household Individual Lead Link Location Mathematics Measures Mexico Modeling Movement Neighborhoods Outcome Parents Pattern Physical environment Population Population Distributions Population Heterogeneity Prevention approach Price Probability Process Recreation Research Project Grants Risk Running Schools Social Environment Social Network Social Processes System Testing United States Workplace abuse neglect alcohol availability alcohol related problem alcohol use disorder alcohol use initiation base child physical abuse community setting design drinking hangover high risk individual variation infectious disease model interest model development physical abuse prevent preventive intervention rate of change simulation social social situation substance use tool underage drinking

项目摘要

ABSTRACT We propose to use an agent-based modeling approach to elucidate specific mechanisms underlying alcohol-related problems and provide a framework for developing comprehensive preventive interventions at the community level. Agent-based models are a tool to assess the health impacts of specific social mechanisms that support alcohol problems in community settings within a framework in which drinkers move through their environments (e.g., commute to home or school) and interact with each other and their environments in ecologically realistic ways (e.g., eat dinner with their families at home). This modeling process demands a high level of precision with regard to theoretical statements of social processes and makes explicit those processes in which we might creatively intervene to reduce problems, setting a high bar for scientific explanation. In this Center component, we will use the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiologic Dynamics (FRED) platform, an agent-based model with realistic, open-access Census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population of the United States down to the Census Block level and allows agents to co-evolve with physical and social environments. We will: (1) Apply a behavioral risk model framework within FRED in order to help clarify specific social ecological mechanisms that underlie the etiology of alcohol-related problems in California communities; and (2) Develop a select set of scenarios to alter social ecological mechanisms related to drinking contexts and assess their effects on alcohol-related problems using the FRED platform. We will extend FRED’s capacities to include unique agent-environment dynamics typical of behavioral risk models related to alcohol use, alcohol use disorders, and related problems. A simulation platform must have a core set of capabilities in order to undertake the development of these behavioral risk models. These include the ability to model individual heterogeneities, heterogeneous agent interactions, and environmental heterogeneity, all of which are built into FRED. We will construct a set of models that accurately describe drinking agents, drinker movements, drinking environments, and specific risks within specific environments. Once the models have been constructed, we will change one element (e.g., increase the number of bars in a community by 10%) and measure how it impacts our outcomes of interest. We will apply this modeling approach to at least five kinds of problems based on current and prior Center Grant research: (a) Parents’ abuse and neglect of their children; (b) Early initiation of alcohol use and youth drinking problems (Component #3); (c) Health impacts related to hyper-availability of alcohol at the US-Mexico border (Component #4); (d) AUDs, heavy drinking and problems related to drinking outside the home (Component #5); and (e) The impact of social host ordinances on underage heavy drinking. BRMs allow for the integration of drinking agents and behaviors with drinking contexts—an essential step in designing and implementing effective strategies to prevent and reduce drinking problems within community systems. They make explicit those processes in which we might creatively intervene to reduce problems.

抽象的我们建议使用基于代理的建模方法来阐明酒精相关的具体机制问题，并为在社区一级制定全面的预防干预措施提供框架。基于主体的模型是一种工具，用于评估支持酒精问题的特定社会机制对健康的影响饮酒者在其环境中移动的框架内的社区环境（例如，通勤回家或学校）并以生态现实的方式与彼此及其环境互动（例如，与他们一起吃晚饭）这个建模过程要求对社会的理论陈述具有很高的精确度。流程并明确那些我们可以创造性地干预以减少问题的流程，设定一个高标准在这个中心部分，我们将使用重建流行病学框架。 Dynamics (FRED) 平台，一个基于代理的模型，具有现实的、开放的、基于人口普查的合成群体，捕捉美国人口的人口统计和地理异质性，直至人口普查区水平并允许代理与物理和社会环境共同进化我们将：（1）应用行为风险模型。 FRED 框架内的框架，以帮助阐明作为病因学基础的特定社会生态机制加州社区与酒精相关的问题；以及 (2) 制定一组选定的方案来改变社会生态与饮酒环境相关的机制，并使用 FRED 平台评估其对酒精相关问题的影响。我们将扩展 FRED 的能力，将行为风险模型中典型的独特主体-环境动态纳入其中与酒精使用、酒精使用障碍和相关问题相关的模拟平台必须具有一组核心内容。开发这些行为风险模型的能力，其中包括建模能力。个体异质性、异质代理相互作用和环境异质性，所有这些都内置于 FRED。我们将构建一套准确描述饮酒者、饮酒者运动、饮酒的模型。一旦模型构建完成，我们就会改变。一个元素（例如，将社区中的酒吧数量增加 10%）并衡量它如何影响我们的结果我们将根据当前和之前的中心拨款，将这种建模方法应用于至少五类问题。研究： (a) 父母虐待和忽视子女； (b) 过早开始酗酒和青少年饮酒问题（组成部分#3）；（c）与美国-墨西哥边境酒精供应过多有关的健康影响（组成部分#4）；澳元、酗酒以及与外出饮酒有关的问题（第 5 部分）以及 (e) 社会影响；关于未成年人酗酒的东道国法令允许将饮酒媒介和行为与饮酒行为相结合。饮酒环境——设计和实施有效预防和减少饮酒策略的重要步骤它们明确了我们可以创造性地干预的过程。减少问题。