COMPENSATING BEHAVIOR OF SMOKERS--TAXES, TAR & NICOTINE

吸烟者的补偿行为——税收、焦油

• 批准号: 2113074
• 负责人: WILLIAM N. EVANS
• 金额: $ 5.71万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-06-01 至 1997-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2113074
• 关键词: age difference; gender difference; health behavior; health economics; human data; nicotine; plant extracts; racial /ethnic difference; smoking cessation; tobacco abuse

Increasingly, public health officials have advocated the use of higher cigarette excise taxes as a means to reduce smoking. Although there is considerable evidence that higher taxes reduce cigarette consumption, there is little direct evidence of how changing taxes alters mortality. This calculation is complicated by several factors. First, smokers who reduce the number of cigarettes purchased because of higher taxes may also adjust their smoking habits in a way that mitigates the health benefits of lower consumption. To maintain current tar or nicotine levels, some smokers might take longer drags on cigarettes or reduce the time between puffs, while others may compensate by moving to higher tar and higher nicotine cigarettes. Other smokers may simple purchase longer versions of their favorite brand. Second, not all smokers face the same risk from smoking and therefore, the benefit of smoking cessation is not uniform among smokers. As smoking rates have fallen in the past 20 years, we suspect that so the effects of taxes on the smoking participation decision may have changed as well. To provide a better link between the economic evidence on how taxes affect consumption and public health data on who benefits from smoking reduction, we plan to answer the following questions about the heterogeneity in demand response to changing cigarette excise taxes: l) Do smokers change their smoking habits when faced with higher cigarette taxes? Do smokers in higher tax states smoke cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content than similar smokers in low-tax states? 2) Who are the smokers most likely to be affected by changing taxes, light or heavy smokers? 3) Who are the people most likely to quit smoking given a tax increase? How has this effect changed over time? To answer the first question, we will merge detailed smoking habits data from the Cancer Control Supplement (CCS) of the 1987 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) with state excise tax rates. Preliminary evidence suggests that smokers do indeed adjust their smoking habits when faced with higher taxes. For example, smokers consume longer cigarettes and cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content in higher tax states, reducing the health gains of a tax hike. Using emerging econometric techniques in quantile regression analysis, we will also test whether heavy or light smokers are more likely to change their cigarette consumption when faced with higher taxes. Quantile regressions allow parameter estimates from a standard linear regression to vary at different points in file conditional distribution of the dependent variable. For example, quantile regressions can estimate separate demand elasticities for smokers at the 10th, 50th, and 90th (light, median, and heavy smokers) percentile level of smoking. Lastly, using the NHIS data from 1976-92 we will investigate how the determinants of the decision to smoke or not smoke have evolved over time. Answers to all of these questions should provide public health researchers with a better understanding of the likely health benefits of changing excise taxes.

公共卫生官员越来越多地提倡使用更高 香烟消费税作为减少吸烟的一种手段。 虽然有 大量证据表明，较高的税收减少了香烟的消耗， 几乎没有直接证据表明税收如何改变死亡率。 该计算因几个因素而复杂。首先，吸烟者 减少由于税收较高而购买的香烟数量可能 还以减轻健康的方式调整他们的吸烟习惯 降低消费的好处。维持当前的焦油或尼古丁 水平，一些吸烟者可能会在香烟上拖延或减少 泡芙之间的时间，而其他人可能会通过移动到更高的焦油来补偿 和更高的尼古丁香烟。其他吸烟者可能会简单购买更长的时间 他们最喜欢的品牌的版本。其次，并非所有吸烟者都面临着同样的 因此，吸烟的风险，因此，戒烟的好处不是 吸烟者统一。由于吸烟率在过去20个 几年，我们怀疑税收对吸烟的影响 参与决定也可能发生了变化。提供更好的 关于税收如何影响消费的经济证据之间的联系 关于谁从减烟中受益的公共卫生数据，我们计划 回答以下有关需求异质性的问题 对更换香烟消费税的反应：l）吸烟者会改变他们的 面对较高的香烟税时吸烟习惯？吸烟者 较高的税收状态吸烟焦油和尼古丁含量较高 比低税状态的类似吸烟者？ 2）最吸烟者 可能会受到不断变化的税收，轻度吸烟者的影响？ 3）谁 鉴于增加税收，人们最有可能戒烟吗？怎么了 这种效果随着时间而改变？要回答第一个问题，我们将 合并癌症控制补充剂的详细吸烟习惯数据 1987年国家健康访谈调查（NHIS）的（CCS） 消费税率。初步证据表明吸烟者确实确实 面对较高税收时，调整他们的吸烟习惯。例如， 吸烟者消耗较长的香烟和香烟，焦油更高， 较高税收状态下的尼古丁含量，减少了 加税。在分位数回归中使用新兴计量经济学技术 分析，我们还将测试烟民是否更多 面对更高 税。分位数回归允许从标准的参数估计 线性回归到在文件条件下的不同点变化 因变量的分布。例如，分位数 回归可以估计吸烟者的单独需求弹性 第十，第50和第90（轻度，中位数和沉重的吸烟者）百分位数 吸烟。最后，使用1976 - 92年的NHIS数据，我们将研究 决定抽烟或不吸烟的决定因素如何发展 随着时间的推移。所有这些问题的答案应为公众提供 健康研究人员对可能的健康有更好的了解 改变消费税的好处。