COMPENSATING BEHAVIOR OF SMOKERS--TAXES, TAR & NICOTINE

吸烟者的补偿行为——税收、焦油

• 批准号: 2113074
• 负责人: WILLIAM N. EVANS
• 金额: $ 5.71万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-06-01 至 1997-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2113074
• 关键词: age difference; gender difference; health behavior; health economics; human data; nicotine; plant extracts; racial /ethnic difference; smoking cessation; tobacco abuse

Increasingly, public health officials have advocated the use of higher cigarette excise taxes as a means to reduce smoking. Although there is considerable evidence that higher taxes reduce cigarette consumption, there is little direct evidence of how changing taxes alters mortality. This calculation is complicated by several factors. First, smokers who reduce the number of cigarettes purchased because of higher taxes may also adjust their smoking habits in a way that mitigates the health benefits of lower consumption. To maintain current tar or nicotine levels, some smokers might take longer drags on cigarettes or reduce the time between puffs, while others may compensate by moving to higher tar and higher nicotine cigarettes. Other smokers may simple purchase longer versions of their favorite brand. Second, not all smokers face the same risk from smoking and therefore, the benefit of smoking cessation is not uniform among smokers. As smoking rates have fallen in the past 20 years, we suspect that so the effects of taxes on the smoking participation decision may have changed as well. To provide a better link between the economic evidence on how taxes affect consumption and public health data on who benefits from smoking reduction, we plan to answer the following questions about the heterogeneity in demand response to changing cigarette excise taxes: l) Do smokers change their smoking habits when faced with higher cigarette taxes? Do smokers in higher tax states smoke cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content than similar smokers in low-tax states? 2) Who are the smokers most likely to be affected by changing taxes, light or heavy smokers? 3) Who are the people most likely to quit smoking given a tax increase? How has this effect changed over time? To answer the first question, we will merge detailed smoking habits data from the Cancer Control Supplement (CCS) of the 1987 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) with state excise tax rates. Preliminary evidence suggests that smokers do indeed adjust their smoking habits when faced with higher taxes. For example, smokers consume longer cigarettes and cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content in higher tax states, reducing the health gains of a tax hike. Using emerging econometric techniques in quantile regression analysis, we will also test whether heavy or light smokers are more likely to change their cigarette consumption when faced with higher taxes. Quantile regressions allow parameter estimates from a standard linear regression to vary at different points in file conditional distribution of the dependent variable. For example, quantile regressions can estimate separate demand elasticities for smokers at the 10th, 50th, and 90th (light, median, and heavy smokers) percentile level of smoking. Lastly, using the NHIS data from 1976-92 we will investigate how the determinants of the decision to smoke or not smoke have evolved over time. Answers to all of these questions should provide public health researchers with a better understanding of the likely health benefits of changing excise taxes.

公共卫生官员越来越多地提倡使用更高的 卷烟消费税作为减少吸烟的一种手段。 虽然有 大量证据表明，较高的税收会减少卷烟消费， 几乎没有直接证据表明改变税收如何改变死亡率。 该计算因多种因素而变得复杂。首先，吸烟者 由于税收增加可能会减少购买香烟的数量 也以减轻健康的方式调整他们的吸烟习惯 降低消费的好处。维持当前的焦油或尼古丁 水平，一些吸烟者可能会花更长时间吸烟或减少吸烟量 抽吸之间的时间，而其他人可能会通过转向更高的焦油来弥补 以及尼古丁含量较高的香烟。其他吸烟者可能会简单地购买更长的时间 他们最喜欢的品牌的版本。其次，并非所有吸烟者都面临同样的问题 吸烟的风险，因此戒烟的好处并不存在 吸烟者之间的统一。过去 20 年来吸烟率有所下降 多年来，我们怀疑税收对吸烟的影响 参与决定也可能发生变化。为了提供更好的 关于税收如何影响消费的经济证据与 关于谁从减少吸烟中受益的公共卫生数据，我们计划 回答以下有关需求异质性的问题 对改变卷烟消费税的反应： l) 吸烟者会改变他们的吸烟税吗？ 面临更高的卷烟税时吸烟习惯如何？吸烟者是否在 税收较高的州吸烟焦油和尼古丁含量较高 与低税收州的类似吸烟者相比？ 2）谁是吸烟者最多的人 可能会受到税收变化的影响，轻度吸烟者还是重度吸烟者？ 3) 谁 鉴于税收增加，人们最有可能戒烟吗？怎么有 这种效果随着时间的推移而改变？为了回答第一个问题，我们将 合并癌症控制补充剂中详细的吸烟习惯数据 (CCS) 的 1987 年全国健康访谈调查 (NHIS) 与州 消费税税率。初步证据表明吸烟者确实 当面临更高的税收时调整他们的吸烟习惯。例如， 吸烟者吸食时间较长的香烟和焦油含量较高的香烟 尼古丁含量较高的州，减少了健康收益 加税。在分位数回归中使用新兴计量经济学技术 分析后，我们还将测试重度吸烟者还是轻度吸烟者更 当面临更高的压力时可能会改变他们的香烟消费 税。分位数回归允许根据标准进行参数估计 线性回归在文件条件中的不同点变化 因变量的分布。例如，分位数 回归可以估计吸烟者的单独需求弹性 第 10、50 和 90（轻度、中度和重度吸烟者）百分位水平 吸烟。最后，我们将使用 1976-92 年的 NHIS 数据进行调查 决定吸烟或不吸烟的决定因素是如何演变的 随着时间的推移。所有这些问题的答案应该向公众提供 健康研究人员可以更好地了解可能的健康状况 改变消费税的好处。