Integrating data streams with multi-scale modeling to guide norovirus vaccine decision-making

将数据流与多尺度建模相结合，指导诺如病毒疫苗决策

• 批准号: 10413200
• 负责人: Benjamin A Lopman
• 金额: $ 34.03万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10413200
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Age; Animal Model; Biological; Cell Culture System; Cessation of life; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Decision Making; Dependence; Development; Diarrhea; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemiology; Evolution; Face; Frequencies; Genotype; Goals; Hand; Health Policy; Health Status; Human; Immunity; Individual; Infection; Infection Control; Mathematics; Measures; Methods; Modeling; Norovirus; Phylogenetic Analysis; Policies; Population; Population Genetics; Public Health; Route; Sampling; Series; Statistical Models; Structure; Time; United States; Update; Vaccination; Vaccine Design; Vaccines; Viral; Virus; Virus Shedding; analytical method; authority; data streams; design; field study; human data; implementation strategy; innovation; insight; mathematical model; models and simulation; multi-scale modeling; multiple data sources; national surveillance; tool; transmission process; user-friendly; vaccination strategy; vaccine development; vaccine distribution; vaccine formulation; vaccine strategy; virus genetics; volunteer

PROJECT SUMMARY Noroviruses cause over 20 million diarrhea cases annually in the United States, one-fifth of all diarrhea cases globally, and over 200,000 deaths worldwide. Norovirus vaccines are currently in development. Our goal is to develop a comprehensive detailed, user-friendly norovirus transmission and vaccination simulator that will help guide and inform norovirus vaccine design and implementation. To achieve this goal, a number of specific insights and parameter estimates are required, such as: At what rate does immunity to norovirus wane in individuals? How does prior infection (or vaccination) affect the course of illness and the duration/quantity of viral shedding? What is the degree of cross-protecting immunity at the genogroup, genotype and strain-level? With such results in hand, we can answer the following vaccine strategy questions: What frequency of re-vaccination is required for control? How often will a norovirus vaccine need to be updated to keep up with viral evolution? What are the population-level health impacts of age-targeted (or other) vaccination strategies? To answer these questions, we will integrate detailed data from multiple sources including volunteer infection studies, national surveillance, and viral sequence datasets. We will fit mathematical and statistical models to these datasets to answer the questions posed above. Our analyses will provide a thorough understanding of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of the virus. This information will be used to develop and implement a detailed norovirus transmission and vaccination simulator. This simulator will be packaged as a user-friendly application for vaccine designers and policy implementers to analyze and forecast possible impacts of vaccine formulations and distribution strategies.

项目概要 在美国，诺如病毒每年导致超过 2000 万例腹泻病例，占所有腹泻病例的五分之一 全球范围内有超过 20 万人死亡。诺如病毒疫苗目前正在开发中。我们的目标是 开发一个全面、详细、用户友好的诺如病毒传播和疫苗接种模拟器，这将有助于 指导并告知诺如病毒疫苗的设计和实施。 为了实现这一目标，需要一些具体的见解和参数估计，例如： 以什么速率 个体对诺如病毒的免疫力会减弱吗？先前的感染（或疫苗接种）如何影响病程 疾病和病毒排出的持续时间/数量？交叉保护免疫力的程度是多少？ 基因组、基因型和菌株水平？有了这样的结果，我们就可以回答以下疫苗策略 问题： 需要多长时间重新接种疫苗才能控制？诺如病毒疫苗需要多久接种一次 进行更新以跟上病毒的进化？针对年龄（或 其他）疫苗接种策略？ 为了回答这些问题，我们将整合包括志愿者感染在内的多个来源的详细数据 研究、国家监测和病毒序列数据集。我们将拟合数学和统计模型 这些数据集可以回答上面提出的问题。我们的分析将提供对 病毒的流行病学和进化动力学。该信息将用于开发和 实施详细的诺如病毒传播和疫苗接种模拟器。该模拟器将被打包为 用户友好的应用程序，供疫苗设计者和政策实施者分析和预测可能的情况 疫苗配方和分配策略的影响。

项目成果

Five approaches to the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 without intensive social distancing.

• DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.3074
• 发表时间: 2021-04-28
• 期刊: Proceedings. Biological sciences
• 作者: Drake JM;Dahlin K;Rohani P;Handel A
• 通讯作者: Handel A

Considering indirect benefits is critical when evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates.

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.08.07.20170456
• 发表时间: 2020-08-11
• 期刊: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
• 作者: Gallagher, Molly E;Sieben, Andrew J;Koelle, Katia
• 通讯作者: Koelle, Katia

Dynamic network strategies for SARS-CoV-2 control on a cruise ship.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100488
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: Epidemics
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Jenness SM;Willebrand KS;Malik AA;Lopman BA;Omer SB
• 通讯作者: Omer SB

Norovirus transmission mitigation strategies during simulated produce harvest and packing.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2021.109365
• 发表时间: 2021-11-02
• 期刊: International journal of food microbiology
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Sobolik JS;Newman KL;Jaykus LA;Bihn EA;Leon JS
• 通讯作者: Leon JS

Controlling risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in essential workers of enclosed food manufacturing facilities.

控制封闭食品生产设施的重要工作人员感染 SARS-CoV-2 的风险。

• DOI: 10.1101/2021.05.14.21257244
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
• 作者: Sobolik,JuliaS;Sajewski,ElizabethT;Jaykus,Lee-Ann;Cooper,DKane;Lopman,BenA;Kraay,AliciaNm;Ryan,PBarry;Leon,JuanS
• 通讯作者: Leon,JuanS