Evaluation of Flood Prediction Uncertainties and its Application to Ungauged Basins

洪水预测不确定性评估及其在未计量流域中的应用

• 批准号: 18560497
• 负责人: TACHIKAWA Yasuto
• 金额: $ 2.23万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2006 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18560497/
• 关键词: distributed hydrologic model; runoff prediction; ungauged basins; predictive uncertainty; design flood; flood control planning; river planning; probable rainfall; Ungauged Basins; 降雨時系列

To obtain design flood, at first some patterns of spatiotemporal rainfall distributions with the magnitude of pre-determined return period is determined, then the rainfall distributions are converted to river discharges using a runoff model. Here, the given rainfall distributions have various patterns and the runoff model has limitations. Thus, the estimated river discharges include uncertainties which come from various sources. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the predictive uncertainty and clarify the sources of the uncertainty to determine design flood.The predictive uncertainty in flood prediction mainly comes from 1) input uncertainty (insufficiency of time and space rainfall observation), 2) model structure uncertainty (insufficiency of the understandings of hydrologic processes), and 3) parameter uncertainty (insufficiency of model parameter identification). These uncertainties essentially stem from insufficient hydrologic observations. To solve the problem, to enhance the observation system is essential, but not practical because the target of prediction is flood which happens e.g. once a hundred years. Therefore, it is requested to develop a hydrologic prediction method for ungauged basins which fully utilize the information at gauged catchments. In this research, followings are conducted to obtain design flood at ungauged basins :1) Development of a intensity-duration-frequency relationships based on scaling characteristics of rainfall extremes2) Development of a rainfall time series generation method which reflects characteristics of rainfall extremes3) Development of a method to assess the performance of rainfall-runoff models in terms of predictive uncertainty.

为了获得设计洪水，首先确定了一些时空降雨分布的一些模式，并确定了预定的回流的大小，然后使用径流模型将降雨分布转换为河流排放。在这里，给定的降雨分布具有各种模式，径流模型具有局限性。因此，估计的河流排放包括来自各种来源的不确定性。 Therefore, it is important to evaluate the predictive uncertainty and clarify the sources of the uncertainty to determine design flood.The predictive uncertainty in flood prediction mainly comes from 1) input uncertainty (insufficiency of time and space rainfall observation), 2) model structure uncertainty (insufficiency of the understandings of hydrologic processes), and 3) parameter uncertainty (insufficiency of model parameter identification).这些不确定性本质上是由于水文观察不足。解决问题，增强观察系统是必不可少的，但不是实际的，因为预测的目标是洪水，例如一百年。因此，要求为Ungaig盆地开发一种水文预测方法，该方法充分利用了计量流域的信息。在这项研究中，进行了以下操作以在Ungaig的盆地获得设计洪水：1）基于降雨极端的缩放特征的强度 - 频率频率关系的发展2）降雨时间序列生成方法的开发，该方法反映了降雨极端的特征3）开发一种评估预测性不确定性降雨繁殖模型的方法的方法。

项目成果

Regional rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships for ungauged catchments based on scaling properties

基于缩放特性的未计量流域的区域降雨强度-持续时间-频率关系

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ. 50B
• 作者: Le Minh NHAT;Yasuto TACHIKAWA;Takahiro SAYAMA and Kaoru TAKARA
• 通讯作者: Takahiro SAYAMA and Kaoru TAKARA

A simple scaling charateristics of rainfall in time and space to derive intensity duration frequency relationships

降雨在时间和空间上的简单缩放特征，用于导出强度持续时间频率关系

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE vol.51
• 作者: Le;Minh;NHAT;Yasuto;TACHIKAWA;Takahiro;SAYAMA;Kaoru;TAKARA
• 通讯作者: TAKARA

POT normalized variance parameter search of the temporal Neyman-Scott rainfall model

时态 Neyman-Scott 降雨模型的 POT 归一化方差参数搜索

• 发表时间: 2008
• 期刊: Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE 52
• 作者: Carlo Arturo MONDONEDO;Yasuto TACHIKAWA and Kaoru TAKARA
• 通讯作者: Yasuto TACHIKAWA and Kaoru TAKARA

Large flood prediction in poorly gauged basins: the 2004 largest-ever flood in Fukui, Japan

测量不准确的盆地的大洪水预测：2004 年日本福井有史以来最大的洪水

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: IAHS publication, ISSN 0144-7815 311
• 作者: Yasuto TACHIKAWA;Ryoichi TAKUBO Takahiro SAYAMA and Kaoru TAKARA
• 通讯作者: Ryoichi TAKUBO Takahiro SAYAMA and Kaoru TAKARA

A framework to assess model structure stability through a single-objective global optimization method

通过单目标全局优化方法评估模型结构稳定性的框架

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Proc. of International Symposium on Managing Water Supply for Growing Demand, Bangkok, 16-20, October, 2006, IHP Technical Documents in Hydiology no. 6
• 作者: Lee G.;Tachikawa;Y.;Takara;K.
• 通讯作者: K.