A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Structural Change in Flow-of-Funds of the Japanese Economy in the 1990s

20世纪90年代日本经济资金流结构变化的理论与实证研究

基本信息

批准号：
16330038
负责人：
OGAWA Kazuo
金额：
$ 4.74万
依托单位：
Osaka University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We investigated the structural change in flow of-funds of the Japanese economy during the 1990s from the following three viewpoints: bank behavior, firm behavior and bank-firm relationship. We summarize our main findings of our research.1. Bank BehaviorFirst, we investigated the determinants of banks' excess reserves under the quantity easing policy adopted in the period of March in 2001 to March in 2006. We estimated the demand function for excess reserves by commercial banks derived from expected profit maximization by banks, using bank panel data set. We found that banks held excess reserves due to fragile financial system and almost zero interest rate situations. Secondly, we investigated the determinants of lending attitude of financial institutions reported in the BOJ Tankan survey. Estimation was conducted separately by firm size and industry. In particular we were interested in the impact of deteriorating balance sheet of banks on lending attitude of banks. We found that mounti … More ng non-performing loans in the banking sector led to severity of lending attitude of financial institutions.2. Firm BehaviorFirst, it should be noted that external finance premium for the firm crucially hinges upon the degree of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers or agency cost. The external finance premium is intrinsically unobservable, but we made an attempt to estimate it by using Bayesian statistical tools. We found that the agency cost was lowered in the bubble period and then it increased rapidly after the bubble collapse. We also found that business investment was closely related to the movement of agency cost. Second, we investigated what kind of information business investment responds to when the firm adjusts its investment plans. In particular we examined whether investment revision is sensitive to evaluation in stock market. We found that revision of business investment is sensitive to revision of sales and profits rather than stock market events.3. Bank-Firm RelationshipIn Japan it is often argued that information of the firm is concentrated on one bank or its main bank. Although information of the firm is concentrated on its main bank, the firm has in many cases multiple bank-firm relationships. We investigated why the firm has multiple relations with banks based on micro-data of large listed firms and small unlisted firms. We found that balance sheet conditions of the main bank as well as its affiliated firms affected the number of bank relations. Less

我们从银行行为、企业行为和银企关系三个角度研究了20世纪90年代日本经济资金流向的结构性变化。首先，我们研究了银行行为。 2001年3月至2006年3月量化宽松政策下银行超额准备金的决定因素。我们利用银行面板数据，根据银行预期利润最大化推导出商业银行超额准备金的需求函数我们发现，由于金融体系脆弱且利率几乎为零，银行持有超额准备金。其次，我们按企业规模和行业分别调查了日本央行短观调查中报告的金融机构贷款态度的决定因素。我们特别关注银行资产负债表恶化对银行贷款态度的影响。我们发现银行业不良贷款的增加导致金融机构贷款态度的严重性。2。应该注意的是公司的外部融资溢价主要取决于贷款人和借款人之间的信息不对称程度或代理成本。外部融资溢价本质上是不可观察的，但我们尝试使用贝叶斯统计工具来估计它。我们还发现，企业投资与代理成本的变动密切相关。投资计划。特别是，我们研究了投资修正是否对股票市场的评估敏感。我们发现，商业投资的修正对销售和利润的修正敏感，而不是股票市场事件。3．企业集中于一家银行或其主要银行虽然企业的信息集中于其主要银行，但在许多情况下，我们根据微观数据调查了企业与银行存在多重关系的原因。我们发现大型上市公司和小型非上市公司的资产负债表。主银行及其附属公司的状况对银行关系的数量影响较小。