A New Framework for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis

宏观经济政策分析的新框架

基本信息

批准号：
14530009
负责人：
SHIBATA Akihisa
金额：
$ 2.11万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14530009/
关键词：
capital market imperfection investment main bank system financial crisis flow analysis of labor market agglomeration economic growth fiscal policy 集積技術革新通貨危機金融市場の不完備性財政赤字労働の再配分

项目摘要

The main results of this project are as follows:(1)Introducing financial market imperfection into the dynamic general equilibrium model, we develop a model of current account dynamics. Deriving analytical solution to the model, we test parameter restrictions under the perfect capital market for the Japanese economy The restrictions are rejected at a very high significance level and we conclude that the capital market imperfection plays an important role in Japan. (2)The importance of the main bank system is tested by using Japanese data on the manufacturing sector. The results indicate that the main bank system has a negative effect on the efficiency of the Japanese banking sector. (3)We extend the first-generation models of financial crises and show that the model can explain systematic devaluations of soft currencies that are independent of the fundamentals of an economy. (4)Using the Japanese flow data on the labor market, we show that the recent inflows and outflow to unemployment are both increasing and that the possibility of unemployment is also rising. (5)The determinants of long-run growth are analyzed. It is shown that there is an optimal patent length to maximize the welfare level and that the debt poly of the government affects the long-run growth rate. (6)Constructing a two-country two goods dynamic model, we analyze the international spillover effects of fiscal policy. We derive an exact formula expressing the welfare effect, and by use of it we show that the welfare effect of a country's fiscal expansion depends on the foreign asset position and on the composition of the government spending.

本课题的主要研究成果如下：(1)将金融市场不完善性引入动态一般均衡模型中，建立了经常项目动态模型。推导模型的解析解，我们测试了日本经济完美资本市场下的参数限制。限制在非常高的显着性水平上被拒绝，我们得出结论，资本市场不完善在日本发挥着重要作用。 (2)利用日本制造业数据检验了主银行体系的重要性。结果表明，主要银行体系对日本银行业的效率产生负面影响。 (3)我们扩展了第一代金融危机模型，并表明该模型可以解释独立于经济基本面的软货币的系统性贬值。 (4)利用日本劳动力市场的流量数据，我们发现近期失业的流入和流出都在增加，失业的可能性也在上升。 (5)分析了长期增长的决定因素。结果表明，存在一个最佳专利长度可以使福利水平最大化，并且政府的债务多元影响长期增长率。 (6)构建两国两种商品动态模型，分析财政政策的国际溢出效应。我们推导出一个表达福利效应的精确公式，并利用它表明一国财政扩张的福利效应取决于外国资产状况和政府支出的构成。