Target Zone and International Policy Coordination

目标区和国际政策协调

基本信息

批准号：
02630048
负责人：
ITO Takatoshi
金额：
$ 0.96万
依托单位：
Hitotsubashi University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1990
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1990 至 1991
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-02630048/
关键词：
Target Zone Policy Coordination Exchange rate Current Accounts J-curve effects Hysteresis Jーカ-ブ効果円・ドルレ-ト G5 合理的期待財政政策金融政策介入

项目摘要

In the literature, the virtue of policy coordination and exchange rate stability among industrialized countries has been emphasized. The need for policy coordination and the exchange rate stability was most evident during the first half of the 1980s. Policy coordination would increase welfare of the economies as it will internalize externalities of economic policies. The target zone will prevent the exchange rate misalignment which will cause real effects, and correction of the exchange rate level will take effects only with a log. In fact, it took two years before a sharp depreciation of the dollar (appreciation of the yen) contributed to correcting the imbalance of the current accounts.This research project investigates the possible detrimental effect of policy coordination among G7 countries (Japan, U. S., Germany, France, U. K., Canada, Italy). Theoretically it has been shown that the policy coordination may not increase the welfare of the economies involved in coordination. This possibility indeed emerged during the period, 1987-1989 when the G7 countries adopted a target zone.One case where coordination (in the exchange rate) results in a worse outcome is a circumstance that country A's mistake (such as deliberate inflation) in economic policy is not punished by the depreciation of the currency due to country B's adjustment (inflation) to keep the currency at the agreed level. From 1986 to 1988, G7 countries carried out coordinated interest rate cuts, which contributed to an asset inflation in Japan. The target zone policy indeed caused a detrimental effect in Japan, when the target was mistaken.

文献中强调了工业化国家之间政策协调和汇率稳定的优点。政策协调和汇率稳定的必要性在 20 世纪 80 年代上半叶最为明显。政策协调将增加经济体的福利，因为它将经济政策的外部性内部化。目标区域将防止汇率错位产生实际影响，并且汇率水平的修正只有在日志中才会生效。事实上，美元大幅贬值（日元升值）花了两年时间才有助于纠正经常账户失衡。本研究项目调查了七国集团（日本、美国、德国）之间政策协调可能产生的不利影响。、法国、英国、加拿大、意大利）。理论上，政策协调可能不会增加参与协调的经济体的福利。这种可能性确实在1987-1989年间出现过，当时G7国家采用了目标区。协调（汇率）导致更糟糕结果的一个例子是A国在经济上的错误（例如故意通货膨胀）。政策不会因B国为将货币保持在约定水平而进行的调整（通货膨胀）而导致货币贬值而受到惩罚。 1986年至1988年，G7国家协调降息，导致日本资产膨胀。当目标错误时，目标区政策确实对日本造成了不利影响。