Evaluation and prediction of the effects of climate variation and global warming on rice production in Monsoon Asia.

气候变化和全球变暖对季风亚洲水稻生产影响的评估和预测。

• 批准号: 13575018
• 负责人: HORIE Takeshi
• 金额: $ 8.06万
• 依托单位: KYOTO UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2004
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13575018/
• 关键词: Rice; Remote sensing; Yielding ability; Canopy resistance; Stomatal conductiance; Leaf temperature; Photosynthesis; Crop growth rate; 中国:タイ:フィリッピン; 水稲; 高温不稔; GCM; モンスーンアジア; 稲; 気象変動; 生産; CO_2濃度; モデル; 天水田稲作; 灌漑稲作; 生産変動; 収量変動

The objectives were to evaluate the current climate variation effects on regional rice production in Monsoon Asia, and to predict the impact of anticipated global warming on rice yield in the region. The results from 4-year research may be summarized as follows :(1)Temperature increase in rice growth season was recognized in Western Japan where the minimum and maximum temperatures have rised by 1.5℃ and 1.0℃ from those in 1960's, which is giving negative effects on rice yield.(2)It was found that the yearly variation in rice yield in Monsoon Asia has changed to increasing trend around 1990 from the previous dereasing trend reflecting mainly the increasing yield fluctuation in India. The yield in India tended to be above the average in La Nina years and below that in El Nino years. Rice yields in India and China are variating in opposite directions each other. This implies that, once those two big rice production countries should have concurrent yield reduction due to adverse climates, it will give enormous impact on rice supply in Monsoon Asia.(3)A dynamic model was developed for simulation of doubling CO_2 climate effect on rice yield based on analysis of ecophysiological genotype-by-environmental interaction processes of rice growth. This model well explained growth and yield of different rice genotypes grown in widely different climatic regions in Monsoon Asia. The model predicts a global warming of more than 3℃ and doubling CO_2 concentration will reduce rice yields of most Monsoon Asia except north temperate areas, with more pronounced effects in Japonica type rice.

目的是目前对季风中季风中的稻米生产的影响。在1960年代，最低温度升高了1.5°C软管，这对季风的水稻产量产生负面影响。倾向于在拉尼娜（La Nina）的平均水平上，而在埃尔尼诺（El Nino）的平均值中，印度和中国的收益率是不同的。在亚洲的水稻供应上，开发了一种动态模型，以模拟CO_2的co_2大米产量，基于对大米生长的生态型基因型 - 内膜型相互作用的分析。 Sonsoon亚洲。模型预测的co_2浓度将产生大多数亚洲的水稻，除了北部温带的浓度，在Japonica型水稻中具有更明显的影响。

项目成果

わが国の稲作温度環境の長期変化について

关于日本水稻种植温度环境的长期变化

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 日本作物学会紀事 73・別2
• 作者: Miyazaki;K.;Ueshima;R.;Makioka;T.;河津 俊作
• 通讯作者: 河津 俊作

Delay of heading dates as an index of water stress in rainfed rice in mini-watersheds in Northern Thailand.

抽穗期延迟作为泰国北部小流域雨养稻水分胁迫的指标。

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Field Crops Research 88
• 作者: Homma;K.
• 通讯作者: K.

モンスーンアジアにおける米の生産変動に関する研究1.不作年における米生産の特徴と気象要因との関連性

亚洲季风水稻产量波动研究 1.歉收年水稻生产特征及其与气象因素的关系

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 日本作物学会紀事 73・別2
• 作者: 本間 香貴

Studies of rice production variability in Monsoon Asia 1. Analysis of rice production in poor harvest years and its relation to weather condition.

季风亚洲水稻产量变异性研究 1.歉收年水稻产量及其与天气条件的关系分析。

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Jpn, J.Crop Sci. 73, extra issue(2)
• 作者: Homma;K.
• 通讯作者: K.

Homma, K.: "Toposequential variation in soil ferfilils and rice productivits of lowland paddy fields in mini-watershed (Nong) in Northeast Thailand"Plant Prod.Sci.. 6・3. 147-153 (2003)

Homma, K.：“泰国东北部小流域（Nong）低地稻田的土壤肥力和水稻生产力的拓扑序列变化”Plant Prod.Sci. 6・3（2003）。