Simulation Analysis on the Economic Evaluation of Japanese Rice Policy under the WTO Regime

WTO体制下日本大米政策经济评价模拟分析

• 批准号: 11460107
• 负责人: SHIMIZU Koichi
• 金额: $ 4.99万
• 依托单位: Tokyo University of Agriculture
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1999 至 2001
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11460107/
• 关键词: Rice; Rice policy; Simulation analysis; WTO regime

The objective of this study is to investigate the alternatives of the rice policy in Japan under the WTO regime. In 2001, various studies have been conducted by the researchers of this group concerning Japanese, foreign and iriternational rice markets. In this summary, the results on the projection of the future Japanese rice market and the set-aside pttlicy are illustrated.Even though the rate of decreasing demand for rice is getting moderate, the gross rice consumption per capita is projected to continue to decrease frorm 71.9 kg in 1999 to 60-65 kg in 2015.With this trend, the domestic rice consumption is going to debrease from 9.905 million ton in 1999 to 8.271-9.022 million ton. On this other hand, the yield of the-normal crop in 2015 is estimated to grow by four percent to 535-540 kg in 2015.With this projection of yield, the sufficient paddy field area for the futufe rice demand is to decrease to 1.39-1.53 million ha in 2015, which is 13-22 percent decrease comparing to the planted area in 2000 (1.76 million ha) The total paddy field area is estimated to decline to 2.20 million ha in 2015, which means the gap between the total paddy field area and the sufficient area for rice demand is continue to be large (0.68-0.82 ha or 35 percent). These results imply that the use of alternative crops other than rice is crucial for the rice policy. The current substantial subsidies for the alternative crops are consistent with this policy implication while there lies a distributional problem. Most of the subsidies which are divided by the cultivators and the land owners is imputed to the land owners. This makes the real land rent excessively high.

本研究的目的是调查 WTO 体制下日本大米政策的替代方案。 2001年，该小组的研究人员对日本、国外和国际大米市场进行了各种研究。在本摘要中，阐述了对未来日本大米市场和预留政策的预测结果。尽管大米需求下降的速度趋于缓和，但人均大米消费总量预计将继续下降1999年的71.9公斤下降到2015年的60-65公斤。照此趋势，国内大米消费量将从1999年的990.5万吨下降到2015年的60-65公斤。 8271-9022万吨。另一方面，预计 2015 年正常作物产量将增长 4%，达到 535-540 公斤。按照这一产量预测，满足未来稻米需求的充足稻田面积将减少至 1.39 2015年种植面积-153万公顷，比2000年种植面积（176万公顷）减少13-22%预计2015年稻田面积将下降至220万公顷，这意味着稻田总面积与水稻需求充足面积之间的差距仍然很大（0.68-0.82公顷，即35%）。这些结果表明，使用水稻以外的替代作物对于水稻政策至关重要。目前对替代作物的大量补贴符合这一政策含义，但存在分配问题。由耕种者和土地所有者分配的补贴大部分归于土地所有者。这使得实际土地租金过高。

项目成果

Sotaro INOUE, Jun NAGASAWA, and Mitsuhiro NAKAGAWA: "Supply and Demand of Rice in Asian Developing Countries : Prediction and its implications on the International Market by the World Grain Model"Quarterly Journal of Agricultural Economy. 54. 77-93 (2000)

Sotaro INOUE、Jun NAGASAWA、Mitsuhiro NAKAGAWA：“亚洲发展中国家大米的供给和需求：世界粮食模型的预测及其对国际市场的影响”《农业经济季刊》。

上岡美保, 井上洋一: "農家世帯における米消費の実態と意識に関する研究"『農村研究』. 第94号. 83-95 (2002)

Miho Kamioka，Yoichi Inoue：“农户稻米消费的实际情况和意识研究”农村研究第94. 83-95（2002）。

李衛紅, 中村耕二郎, 中川光弘: "中国における米生産の地域的特性とその将来予測"『農業経営研究』. 第40巻1号(掲載予定). (2002)

李卫红，中村小次郎，中川光宏：“中国水稻生产的区域特征及其未来预测”，农业管理研究，第40卷，第1期（待出版）。

農業政策研究会(代表 森島賢)編: "『国境措置と日本農業』"農林統計協会. 306 (2000)

农业政策研究组（代表：森岛健）主编：“‘边境措施和日本农业’”农林统计协会306（2000）。

Mitsuo sUZUKI, Mitsuhiro NAKAGAWA, Masayuki HRAO, and Toru KASHIMA: "Changes in the Agricultural Environment and Hokkaido Agriculture-Application of Geometrial Infrmaiton System-"Yearly Report of the Research Institute of the Environment, Hokkaido Tokai u

Mitsuo sUZUKI、Mitsuhiro NAKAGAWA、Masayuki HRAO、Toru KASHIMA：“农业环境和北海道农业的变化-几何信息系统的应用-”北海道东海大学环境研究所的年度报告