Populism and Foreign Policy

民粹主义与外交政策

• 批准号: 451375110
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Sandra Destradi
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: GIGA Institut für Asien-Studien
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/451375110?language=en
• 关键词: Populism; Foreign; Policy

What are the international implications of the rise of populist governments all over the world? Prominent recent episodes – from U.S. President Trump’s retreat from the Iran nuclear deal to Brexit – suggest that populists, once they get elected and form governments, overthrow existing commitments to multilateralism and global governance and pursue more aggressive policies than their non-populist predecessors. Yet, our previous work on the Global South (Plagemann/Destradi 2019a; Destradi/Plagemann 2019) suggests that this is not always the case. In some cases, populists are even more open to multilateralism or more willing to contribute to the provision of global public goods than their non-populist predecessors. The proposed project aims to make sense of these variations in the impact of populist government formation on foreign policy. Since the study of the international implications of populist government formation is a nascent and still almost untheorized field, the project takes an explorative approach. It aims to assess and theorize the impact of populism on foreign policy. Its main research question is the following: To what extent and why does the formation of populist governments lead to changes in foreign policy? The project focuses on four broad fields: a) governments’ international conflict behavior; b) their contributions to global governance; c) their support for international institutions; and d) their re-orientation towards populist and/or autocratic international partners. Empirical analyses are based on in-depth case studies of continuity and change in foreign policy after the formation of populist governments in five countries: Bolivia (Morales, 2006-2019), India (Modi, 2014-2020), Turkey (Erdoğan, 2003-2020), Italy (the League-Five Star Movement all-populist coalition government, 2018-2019), and the Philippines (Duterte, 2016-2020). These cases were selected as they display variation in the ‘thick’ ideologies espoused by populists in power as well as on other theoretically relevant dimensions. The project is structured in two Work Packages (WPs). WP1 takes stock of changes in foreign policy after the formation of populist governments by comparing the foreign policies of each populist government with that of its non-populist predecessor (within-case comparison) across the four fields (a-d). WP1 also addresses shifts in the processes of foreign policy-making in each case. WP2 answers the second part of the research question (‘why?’). It compares foreign policy change after populist government formation across cases. It uses such comparison for theory-building by taking an abductive approach and develops, assesses, and refines theoretical expectations about the mechanisms through which populism impacts foreign policy. The project is designed to combine the search for generalizable patterns across cases with careful attention to context conditions and in-depth knowledge of each case.

世界各地民粹主义政府的崛起对国际社会有何影响？从美国总统特朗普退出伊朗核协议到英国脱欧，民粹主义者一旦当选并组建政府，就会推翻现有的多边主义承诺。然而，我们之前对全球南方的研究（Plagemann/Destradi 2019a； Destradi/Plagemann 2019）表明，在某些情况下，民粹主义者甚至比非民粹主义前辈更愿意为提供全球公共产品做出贡献。由于民粹主义政府组建的国际影响的研究是一个新兴的、几乎尚未理论化的领域，因此该项目采取了探索性的方式。它旨在评估民粹主义对外交政策的影响并对其进行理论化，其主要研究问题如下：民粹主义政府的形成在多大程度上以及为何导致外交政策的变化？ a) 政府的国际冲突行为； b) 他们对全球治理的贡献；以及 d) 他们对民粹主义和/或专制国际伙伴的重新定位基于深入的案例研究。的连续性和五个国家民粹主义政府组建后外交政策的变化：玻利维亚（莫拉莱斯，2006-2019）、印度（莫迪，2014-2020）、土耳其（埃尔多安，2003-2020）、意大利（联盟五星运动） -民粹主义联合政府，2018-2019）和菲律宾（杜特尔特， 2016-2020 年）。选择这些案例是因为它们显示了当权的民粹主义者所拥护的“厚重”意识形态以及其他理论上相关维度的变化。该项目由两个工作包（WP1）组成，对变化进行了评估。通过将每个民粹主义政府与其非民粹主义前任政府的外交政策在四个领域进行比较（案例内比较），研究民粹主义政府成立后的外交政策(a-d) WP1 还讨论了每种情况下外交政策制定过程的转变，它回答了研究问题的第二部分（“为什么？”）。该项目旨在通过采取归纳方法进行理论构建的比较，并发展、评估和完善有关民粹主义影响外交政策的机制的理论预期，旨在将跨案例的普遍模式探索与对背景条件的仔细关注结合起来。对每个案例都有深入的了解。