eXtreme EuRopean drOughtS: multimodel synthesis of past, present and future events

欧洲极端干旱：过去、现在和未来事件的多模型综合

• 批准号: 412863158
• 负责人: Dr. Oldrich Rakovec
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department Hydrosystemmodellierung
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2018-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/412863158?language=en
• 关键词: eXtreme; EuRopean; drOughtS; multimodel; synthesis

There are plenty of studies assessing the severity of recent European droughts. However, most of these studies evaluate the droughts within the context of hydroclimatic conditions of the second half of the 20th century. It is thus possible, that recent European drought events are less (or more) severe than previously thought. The XEROS project aims at (1) assessing the extremity of recent European drought events in the perspective of long (i.e. 500-year) benchmark period and (2) improving the process understanding of drought genesis. The underlying analysis will employ a multi-model reconstruction of hydrologic variables using the palaeoclimatic reconstructed driving data. Current state-of-the-art hydrologic/land surface models will be used to estimate spatio-temporal dynamics of the surface and subsurface water component. This will enable an improved understanding of historical characterisation of large scale drought events and exploratory analysis of the governing atmospheric parameters influencing the genesis of droughts. Better understanding of the uncertainties in the past will allow to project future hydroclimatic conditions across Europe more reliably. This will be achieved by constraining the (future) climate model simulations by the available (past) observation-based reconstructed hydroclimatic variables. The XEROS project builds upon a modelling infrastructure which has been recently established across Europe by our team. Additionally, this project aims to bring together two research groups of complementary scientific knowledge: the German-based applicants (UFZ) have strong expertise on understanding and modelling the complex interaction of land-surface hydrologic processes, and the Czech-based applicants (CULS) having strong scientific background in statistical analysis of hydrologic and climate variability.

有大量研究评估了最近欧洲干旱的严重程度。然而，这些研究大多数是在 20 世纪下半叶的水文气候条件背景下评估干旱的。因此，最近的欧洲干旱事件可能没有以前想象的那么严重（或更严重）。 XEROS项目的目标是（1）从长期（即500年）基准期的角度评估近期欧洲干旱事件的极端程度，以及（2）提高对干旱成因过程的理解。基础分析将利用古气候重建的驾驶数据对水文变量进行多模型重建。目前最先进的水文/陆地表面模型将用于估计地表水和地下水成分的时空动态。这将有助于更好地了解大规模干旱事件的历史特征，并对影响干旱成因的控制大气参数进行探索性分析。更好地了解过去的不确定性将有助于更可靠地预测整个欧洲未来的水文气候条件。这将通过利用可用的（过去）基于观测的重建水文气候变量来限制（未来）气候模型模拟来实现。 XEROS 项目建立在我们的团队最近在欧洲建立的建模基础设施的基础上。此外，该项目旨在汇集两个具有互补科学知识的研究小组：德国申请人（UFZ）在理解和模拟地表水文过程的复杂相互作用方面拥有丰富的专业知识，捷克申请人（CULS）在水文和气候变化统计分析方面拥有强大的科学背景。