Rising sea and sinking land: Determining spatially resolved subsidence rates for the Ayeyarwady Delta (Myanmar) and developing dynamic adaptation scenarios for the increased risk of flooding

海平面上升和土地下沉：确定伊洛瓦底三角洲（缅甸）的空间分辨沉降率，并针对洪水风险增加制定动态适应情景

• 批准号: 411257639
• 负责人: Dr. Dominik Brill
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Geographisches Institut
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/411257639?language=en
• 关键词: Rising; sea; sinking; land; Determining

According to the latest moderate IPCC projections, global mean sea level is expected to rise by 0.32–1.01 m until 2100. Large deltas are prone to exceptional rates of sea-level rise (SLR) where isostasy and compaction exceed sedimentation. In the understudied Ayeyarwady Delta (Myanmar), relative SLR leads to drowning of the lowest areas, while monsoon floods and storm surges induced by tropical cyclones are a threat to much larger parts of the delta. The catastrophic impacts of recent events demonstrated the consequences of limited knowledge concerning high-magnitude hazards in the Ayeyarwady Delta, where great disaster risk meets high levels of exposure and limited resilience capacity. Therefore, an improved understanding of causalities between sea levels, flooding and societal activities as the basis for future strategies of mitigation and risk governance was already targeted by the initial project granted in 2019. Although the implementation was considerably hampered by Covid-19 and the coup d'état in Myanmar in February 2021, which has been making fieldwork impossible, by applying remote sensing the granted project made important achievements regarding the assessment of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in the Ayeyarwady Delta. However, to develop sustainable mitigation strategies for future flood risk, further insights into the driving factors of relative SLR and effective adaptation strategies are essential. This is the focus of our follow-up proposal, which for the first time will systematically investigate the contribution of land subsidence to local SLR and target disaster risk reduction strategies in the delta. As yet, land subsidence in the Ayeyarwady Delta has been assessed only locally and is contribution to relative SLR is based on vague estimates, although it constitutes a crucial link between the natural system and societal activities. Data on spatial and temporal patterns of land subsidence are needed to understand interactions between society and the mitigation or potential creation of disaster risks. These findings provide the basis for risk-sensitive adaptation strategies, which will be developed through scenario-based planning involving local and international experts, aiming at the co-creation of knowledge. This will contribute to the development of coping strategies in order to preserve settlements and economic functions of the delta for future generations. Consequently, the follow-up proposal aims to further improve the assessment and mitigation of flood risk in the Ayeyarwady Delta by (i) providing new, unique data on land subsidence as a main driver of relative SLR; (ii) investigating the interdependencies between relative SLR and human activities; and (iii) developing dynamic adaptive pathways for sustainable management of future flood risk. The holistic approach from the identification of SLR drivers to the development of adaptation pathways can serve as a model that is also applicable to other megadeltas.

根据最新的中等IPCC预测，全球平均海平面预计将上升0.32–1.01 m，直到2100年。Al海平面上升速度（SLR），同类和压实提取的sedimence（缅甸），而季风洪水泛滥。由热带气旋引起的风暴潮是属于三角洲的灾难性影响的威胁。 - 在Ayeyarwady三角洲，整个巨大的灾难风险符合高水平的暴露和有限的弹性能力。 19和D'Etat Ry 2021，通过采用遥控项目，这使得授予的项目对您的洪水危害，脆弱性和风险的重要成就进行了重要的成就，以制定可持续的缓解策略。未来的ISK，对相对SLR的驱动因素和效应适应性策略的进一步见解是必不可少的Ayeyarwady三角洲的沉降仅在本地进行了评估，并且对相对SLR的贡献是基于模糊的估计，尽管它构成了自然系统与社会沉积物之间的关键联系。潜在的危险，这些发现是针对风险敏感的适应策略的基础，这些策略将通过涉及本地和国际专家的基于方案的计划来开发。 del ta的设置和功能，以进一步的后续提案。和人类的活动；从识别SLR驱动器到适应途径的整体方法也可以与其他Megadeltas一起使用。