FOR 896: Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector (PANDOWAE)

FOR 896：大西洋-欧洲部分天气系统的可预测性和动态 (PANDOWAE)

• 批准号: 36043686
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2007-12-31 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/36043686?language=en
• 关键词: 896; Predictability; Dynamics; Weather; Systems

Accurate numerical weather forecasts are essential for the mitigation of the threat to life and property presented by high-impact weather systems. In Europe a variety of different systems present significant challenges for numerical weather prediction. These include winter storms, Mediterranean cyclones, flooding events, mesoscale convective systems and tropical cyclones, which transform into extratropical systems. The aim of PANDOWAE is to advance our knowledge and understanding of the dynamical processes responsible for the development of high-impact weather systems, to elucidate the factors that limit the predictability of such systems, and to contribute the basic research that will lead to the development of innovative interactive weather forecasting systems. The majority of these high-impact weather events that threaten western and central Europe, while often small in scale, owe their development to larger scale motions. In the Atlantic-European sector the structure of the upper-tropospheric jetstream plays a crucial role in the development of European high-impact weather. Thus the first of the three PANDOWAE research areas are disturbances in the jet stream, called upper-level Rossby wave trains; their generation, propagation and wave-breaking. The second research area is about processes associated with phase changes of water. They may cause disturbances in the lower troposphere, called diabatic rossby waves, which can lead to the development of intense cyclones and which are one focus of this research area. The third research area considers how to use a collection of different forecasts of the same situation (ensembles) and their flexible calculation dependent on the state of the flow. Those methods have potential to improve the forecast of HIW in an essential manner. To reach the aims above the Research Unit will work with data of several operational forecast models to perform climatologies, joint case studies, data impact studies and more. PANDOWAE will represent a strong German contribution to the "World Weather Research Programme" THORPEX of the World Meteorological Organisation WMO.

准确的数值天气预报对于减轻高影响天气系统对生命和财产造成的威胁至关重要。在欧洲，各种不同的系统对数值天气预报提出了重大挑战。其中包括冬季风暴、地中海气旋、洪水事件、中尺度对流系统和转变为温带系统的热带气旋。 PANDOWAE 的目标是增进我们对高影响天气系统发展的动力过程的认识和理解，阐明限制此类系统可预测性的因素，并为促进高影响天气系统发展的基础研究做出贡献创新的交互式天气预报系统。大多数威胁西欧和中欧的高影响天气事件虽然规模往往较小，但其发展归因于更大规模的运动。在大西洋-欧洲区域，对流层上层急流的结构在欧洲高影响天气的发展中起着至关重要的作用。因此，三个 PANDOWAE 研究领域中的第一个是急流中的扰动，称为上层罗斯贝波列；它们的产生、传播和破波。第二个研究领域是与水相变相关的过程。它们可能会在对流层低层引起扰动，称为非绝热罗斯比波，这可能导致强烈气旋的发展，这是该研究领域的重点之一。第三个研究领域考虑如何使用相同情况的不同预测的集合（集合）以及它们依赖于流状态的灵活计算。这些方法有可能从本质上改进 HIW 的预测。为了实现上述目标，研究小组将利用多个业务预测模型的数据来进行气候学、联合案例研究、数据影响研究等。 PANDOWAE 将代表德国对世界气象组织 WMO 的“世界天气研究计划”THORPEX 做出的巨大贡献。