Plant population dynamics (central-marginal concept) modelling species' environmental envelopes, and prediction of species' response to global change

植物种群动态（中心边缘概念）模拟物种的环境范围，并预测物种对全球变化的响应

• 批准号: 29017408
• 负责人: Dr. Marion Pfeifer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: School of Natural and Environmental Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2005-12-31 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/29017408?language=en
• 关键词: Plant; population; dynamics; central; marginal

Global climate change may alter the distribution of species and communities, and consequently biodiversity with implications for nature conservation, agro-forestry, and environmental planning. Yet, factors other than climate may play an important role in determining the distribution of species over time. Their relative impact on the populations may vary. Firstly, this project attempts to compare structure and dynamics of populations of one perennial orchid throughout the entire species range to quantify the relative influence of environmental parameters (e.g. type of management, land-use, local weather extremes) on population performance indices (e.g. size structure, reproductive success). The comparative demographic analysis will be accompanied by a comparative genetic analysis to test several hypotheses proposed within the Central-Marginal concept. Secondly, I will apply state-of-theart habitat modelling techniques based on a multi-layered GIS geodatabase to identify most relevant factors limiting the species range. Thirdly, climate change and land-use will be incorporated into the habitat modelling to predict the species future distribution under environmental change. Habitat requirements, climatic limitations, and species traits will be integrated in the modelling progress. The combination of modelling with detailed fieldmeasurements can overcome common difficulties in the research on population performance regulation, and on the impact of climate change relative to other environmental variables.

全球气候变化可能会改变物种和群落的分布，从而改变生物多样性，对自然保护、农林业和环境规划产生影响。然而，气候以外的因素可能在决定物种随时间的分布方面发挥重要作用。它们对人群的相对影响可能有所不同。首先，该项目试图比较整个物种范围内一种多年生兰花的种群结构和动态，以量化环境参数（例如管理类型、土地利用、当地极端天气）对种群绩效指数（例如大小）的相对影响。结构、繁殖成功）。比较人口统计分析将伴随比较遗传分析，以检验中央边缘概念中提出的几个假设。其次，我将应用基于多层 GIS 地理数据库的最先进的栖息地建模技术来确定限制物种范围的最相关因素。第三，将气候变化和土地利用纳入栖息地模型中，以预测环境变化下物种的未来分布。栖息地要求、气候限制和物种特征将整合到建模过程中。建模与详细实地测量的结合可以克服人口绩效调节以及气候变化相对于其他环境变量的影响研究中的常见困难。