Plant population dynamics (central-marginal concept) modelling species' environmental envelopes, and prediction of species' response to global change

植物种群动态（中心边缘概念）模拟物种的环境范围，并预测物种对全球变化的响应

• 批准号: 29017408
• 负责人: Dr. Marion Pfeifer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: School of Natural and Environmental Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2005-12-31 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/29017408?language=en
• 关键词: Plant; population; dynamics; central; marginal

Global climate change may alter the distribution of species and communities, and consequently biodiversity with implications for nature conservation, agro-forestry, and environmental planning. Yet, factors other than climate may play an important role in determining the distribution of species over time. Their relative impact on the populations may vary. Firstly, this project attempts to compare structure and dynamics of populations of one perennial orchid throughout the entire species range to quantify the relative influence of environmental parameters (e.g. type of management, land-use, local weather extremes) on population performance indices (e.g. size structure, reproductive success). The comparative demographic analysis will be accompanied by a comparative genetic analysis to test several hypotheses proposed within the Central-Marginal concept. Secondly, I will apply state-of-theart habitat modelling techniques based on a multi-layered GIS geodatabase to identify most relevant factors limiting the species range. Thirdly, climate change and land-use will be incorporated into the habitat modelling to predict the species future distribution under environmental change. Habitat requirements, climatic limitations, and species traits will be integrated in the modelling progress. The combination of modelling with detailed fieldmeasurements can overcome common difficulties in the research on population performance regulation, and on the impact of climate change relative to other environmental variables.

全球气候变化可能会改变物种和社区的分布，从而改变生物多样性，对自然保护，农业污染和环境规划产生影响。然而，除气候以外的其他因素可能在确定物种随时间的分布中起重要作用。它们对人口的相对影响可能会有所不同。首先，该项目试图比较整个物种范围内一种多年生兰花种群的结构和动态，以量化环境参数的相对影响（例如管理，土地利用，当地天气极端）对人口绩效指数（例如大小结构，繁殖成功）。比较人口统计学分析将伴随着比较的遗传分析，以检验中央界限概念中提出的几种假设。其次，我将基于多层GIS地理数据库采用最新的栖息地建模技术来确定限制该物种范围的最相关因素。第三，气候变化和土地使用将纳入栖息地建模，以预测环境变化下的物种未来分布。栖息地的要求，气候限制和物种特征将集成到建模进度中。在人口绩效调节的研究中，建模与详细的现场计量的结合可以克服共同的困难，以及与其他环境变量相对于气候变化的影响。