Overcoming Meta-Cognitive Myopia

克服元认知近视

• 批准号: 263726490
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Klaus Fiedler
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Psychologisches Institut
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/263726490?language=en
• 关键词: Overcoming; Meta; Cognitive; Myopia

Convergent evidence from numerous studies points to metacognitive myopia as a major obstacle in the way of rational thinking and action. Although people are often remarkably accurate in utilizing the information given in a sample, even in complex task settings, they are naive and uncritical regarding the origin and validity of the sample. Taking even obviously biased and misleading sample information for granted, judges and decision makers succumb to the very biases and distortions that happen to be inherent in the sample input. While previous research on metacognitive myopia (reviewed in Fiedler, 2012) highlights the persistence of this syndrome and its resistance to treatment, the present research project is devoted to three sorts of possible remedies that may help to overcome meta-cognitive myopia: (1) error-sensitive feedback procedures; (2) social conflicts in collective reasoning; and (3) analogical reasoning aids. The potential of these three classes of remedies will be tested with reference to meta-cognitive myopia in three theoretical paradigms: (a) neglect of sample size; (b) confusion in conditional reasoning; and (c) the failure to take aggregation-level effects into account.

大量研究的一致证据表明，元认知短视是理性思维和行动方式的主要障碍。尽管人们在利用样本中给出的信息时通常非常准确，即使是在复杂的任务设置中，但他们对样本的来源和有效性却很天真且不加批判。即使法官和决策者将明显带有偏见和误导性的样本信息视为理所当然，他们也会屈服于样本输入中固有的偏见和扭曲。虽然之前关于元认知近视的研究（Fiedler，2012 年综述）强调了这种综合征的持续存在及其对治疗的抵抗力，但当前的研究项目致力于三种可能有助于克服元认知近视的补救措施：(1)对错误敏感的反馈程序； (2)社会冲突的集体推理； (3) 类比推理辅助工具。这三类补救措施的潜力将在三种理论范式中参照元认知近视进行测试：(a) 忽视样本量； (b) 条件推理混乱； (c) 未能考虑聚合层面的影响。