NERC - NSFGEO: Pliocene Lessons for the Indian Ocean Dipole (PLIOD)

NERC - NSFGEO：印度洋偶极子的上新世教训 (PLIOD)

• 批准号: 2423147
• 负责人: Kaustubh Thirumalai
• 金额: $ 32.51万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-04-15 至 2027-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2423147&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NERC; NSFGEO; Pliocene; Lessons; Indian; NERC; NSFGEO; Pliocene; Lessons; Indian

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries. Over two billion people who live along the Indian Ocean's rim are impacted by its climate. However, large uncertainty persists for how the region's climate will change in the future under sustained greenhouse forcing. This project will provide the first estimates of short-term temperature variability in the Indian Ocean during a past warm climate period. To do this, the researchers will analyze sediment in cores collected from the Indian Ocean. The analyses will help to determine changes in temperatures in the tropical–subtropical Indian Ocean during the Pliocene. These data will also be combined with climate model output to determine whether a warmer Indian Ocean had greater seasonal and year-to-year variability. Understanding the Indian Ocean during this past warm period may highlight the future climate risks for the region and beyond. In addition, this project will foster collaborations between US and UK researchers and support a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Arizona. The postdoctoral scholar will help lead the project and mentor students. The students will include a high school student and a student from a Tribal College in Arizona.Since 2000, surface waters in the Indian Ocean have warmed faster than in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This has raised concerns about how the interannual Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode of variability and associated risks of extreme weather events will be affected by global warming. In this project, the researchers will investigate Indian Ocean climate variability and IOD-related dynamics during the mid-Pliocene period (~3 Ma), when global temperatures were approximately 2-3°C higher than preindustrial levels. Marine sedimentary archives will be analyzed to provide detailed information on subdecadal temperature variability across the tropical–subtropical Indian Ocean during this period. In concert with these paleodata, the team will also perform climate simulations at the UK Met Office (UKESM1-HADGEM3) to determine whether a warmer Indian Ocean experienced greater seasonal to interannual variability. This research will test whether patterns of climate variability during the warm mid-Pliocene interval align with a recently proposed hypothesis that the Indian Ocean can harbor an "El Niño-like" equatorial mode of enhanced interannual variability, distinct from the IOD, under altered climatic states. The emergence of such a mode in a warmer-than-present interval of Earth’s history holds significant implications for future climate risk precipitated by Indian Ocean dynamics. In addition, this project will foster collaborations between the US and UK across early- and mid-career researchers. This project will support a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Arizona who will lead the proposed research and will also help mentor a high school student and an REU student from a Community/Tribal College in ArizonaThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学局（NSF/GEO）和英国国家环境研究委员会（NERC）共同资助的项目，该项目通过NSF/GEO-GEO-NERC领先机构协议。该协议允许该机构提交和同行评审的一项联合提案，其调查员的预算比例最大。成功确定奖励建议后，每个机构都资助了支持各自国家机构的科学家的预算比例。居住在印度洋边缘的超过20亿人受到气候的影响。但是，在持续的温室强迫下，该地区的气候将来将如何变化。该项目将在过去的温暖气候期间提供印度洋短期温度可变性的首次估计。为此，研究人员将分析从印度洋收集的核心中的沉积物。这些分析将有助于确定在上新世期间热带印度洋温度的变化。这些数据还将与气候模型产量相结合，以确定较温暖的印度洋是否具有更大的季节性和逐年变异性。在过去的温暖时期，了解印度洋可能会突出该地区及其他地区的未来气候风险。此外，该项目将促进美国和英国研究人员之间的合作，并支持亚利桑那大学的博士后科学。博士后科学将有助于领导该项目和精神学生。这些学生将包括一个高中生和来自亚利桑那州一所部落学院的学生。2000年，印度洋的地表水比大西洋和太平洋鲈鱼的温暖速度快。这引起了人们对年际印度洋偶极子（IOD）变异性方式以及极端天气事件的相关风险的担忧。在该项目中，研究人员将在中新世时期（〜3 MA）中调查印度洋气候变异性和与IOD相关的动力学，当时全球温度比工业前水平高约2-3°C。在此期间，将分析海洋沉积档案，以提供有关印度洋热带 - 肥大的印度洋范围内温度可变性的详细信息。在与这些古代偶像合作的一致中，该团队还将在英国大都会办公室（UKESM1-HADGEM3）进行气候模拟，以确定温暖的印度洋是否经历了更大的季节性到年间可变性。这项研究将测试温暖中新世间隔期间气候变异性的模式是否与最近提出的假设保持一致，即印度洋可以具有同样增强的年际变异性的模式，该模式与互联网状态不同，与IOD不同。这种模式在地球历史的比较温暖的间隔中的出现对印度洋动态促成的未来气候风险产生了重大影响。此外，该项目将在早期和中期研究人员中促进美国和英国之间的合作。该项目将支持亚利桑那大学的一所博士后学校，该学校将领导拟议的研究，还将帮助指导高中生和来自亚利桑那州社区/部落学院奖的REU学生，反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过使用基金会的知识分子和更广泛影响的评估来审查Criteria来通过评估来通过评估来获得支持的。