Collaborative Research: NSFGEO-NERC: Hurricane Risk Amplification and Changing North Atlantic Natural Disasters

合作研究：NSFGEO-NERC：飓风风险放大和改变北大西洋自然灾害

• 批准号: 2244917
• 负责人: Kevin Reed
• 金额: $ 40.91万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Stony Brook
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-03-01 至 2026-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2244917&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; NSFGEO; NERC; Hurricane

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries.It is a remarkable fact that hurricanes forming in the tropical Atlantic can pose a threat to the northeastern US and Western Europe, both well outside the tropics and on opposite sides of the Atlantic. The ability of hurricanes to inflict damage at such long range is well known in the US, with recent examples including Sandy in 2012 and Ida in 2021. On the other side of the basin Ophelia (2017) and Leslie (2018) caused severe damage in Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Such storms are a natural topic for collaboration between NSF and NERC given their transatlantic impacts.Research under this award seeks to understand the Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall at higher latitudes, taking into account their full lifecycle and impacts. Lifecycle is an important consideration as hurricanes can transform considerably as they encounter the cool ocean surface, frontal temperature contrasts, and upper-level ridges, troughs, and jet streams of the middle latitudes. By the time a hurricane makes landfall in Ireland or New York, it is likely to have undergone at least a partial transition from the warm core, vertically aligned structure of a tropical cyclone to the cold-core, westward-tilted structure and larger areal extent of an extratropical cyclone. The lifecycle transitions of these hurricanes complicate efforts to understand and predict their behavior and anticipate changes in their frequency and intensity due to climate variability and change. Changes in hurricane structure also create important differences in impacts, for instance storms which retain their tropical characteristics at landfall are typically more damaging, but storms which have largely transformed into extratropical cyclones are considerably more common. They can also create disruptions over a wider area, as was the case with Hurricane Sandy.A key challenge in work on hurricanes at higher latitudes, referred to here as cyclones of tropical origin (CTOs), is scarcity of observations, as CTOs occur infrequently and the observed record is relatively short. This project takes advantage of several archives of model simulations which substantially augment the observations, including ensembles of seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The forecast ensembles contain many examples of CTOs which could have happened but did not, thus boosting the sample size for CTOs from perhaps 3 per year to 300 per year. The project also uses specialized models to look at hurricane impacts, including a high-resolution coastal ocean model to simulate storm surge and a hydrological model for flooding.The project has societal value due to its emphasis on hazardous weather events. The project includes a concerted effort to provide actionable guidance to decision makers. The ensembles available from seasonal forecasts and other model outputs allow consideration of a wider variety of CTOs than have occurred in the observational record, thus better representing the range of possibilities. The application of storm surge and flood models to these simulated storms provides further guidance on the range of possible CTO impacts. The range of possible storms and their impacts is synthesized in the form of storylines, which are narrative descriptions of the events and their impacts to be used for planning purposes. The project supports a postdoctoral researcher, thereby promoting the future workforce in this research area.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目由美国国家科学基金会地球科学理事会 (NSF/GEO) 和英国国家环境研究委员会 (NERC) 通过 NSF/GEO-NERC 牵头机构协议共同资助。单一的美国/英国联合提案将由其研究人员拥有最大预算比例的机构提交并进行同行评审。在成功联合确定一项奖励建议后，每个机构将资助支持其机构科学家的预算比例。各自国家。一个值得注意的事实是，在热带大西洋形成的飓风可能对热带地区以外和大西洋两岸的美国东北部和西欧构成威胁。飓风在如此远的距离造成损害的能力是众所周知的。美国，最近的例子包括 2012 年的桑迪和 2021 年的艾达。在盆地的另一边，奥菲莉亚（Ophelia，2017 年）和莱斯利（Leslie，2018 年）在爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙造成了严重破坏。鉴于风暴对跨大西洋的影响，自然而然地成为 NSF 和 NERC 之间合作的一个话题。该奖项的研究旨在了解在高纬度地区登陆的大西洋飓风，同时考虑到飓风的整个生命周期和影响，这是一个重要的考虑因素。当飓风在爱尔兰或纽约登陆时，当它们遇到凉爽的海洋表面、锋面温度对比以及中纬度的高层脊、槽和急流时，它们会发生很大的变化。可能至少经历了从热带气旋的暖核、垂直排列结构到冷核、向西倾斜结构和温带气旋更大区域范围的转变。这些飓风的生命周期转变使应对气候变化的努力变得更加复杂。了解和预测它们的行为，并预测由于气候变化和变化而导致的频率和强度的变化。飓风结构的变化也会造成影响的重要差异，例如，登陆时保留热带特征的风暴通常更具破坏性，但飓风结构的变化通常更具破坏性。大部分转变为温带气旋的情况更为常见，它们还可能在更广泛的地区造成破坏，就像桑迪飓风一样。高纬度地区飓风（此处称为热带气旋（CTO））工作的一个关键挑战。 ），是观测数据的稀缺，因为 CTO 很少发生，并且观测记录相对较短。该项目利用了多个模型模拟档案，这些模型模拟档案大大增强了观测数据，包括欧洲中心的季节性预测集合。中期天气预报。预报集合包含许多可能发生但没有发生的 CTO 示例，从而将 CTO 的样本量从每年 3 个增加到每年 300 个。 ，包括模拟风暴潮的高分辨率沿海海洋模型和洪水的水文模型。该项目由于强调灾害天气事件而具有社会价值。该项目包括为决策者提供可操作指导的共同努力。从季节性预测和其他模型输出中获得的数据可以考虑比观测记录中更广泛的 CTO，从而更好地表示可能性的范围。风暴潮和洪水模型在这些模拟风暴中的应用为该范围提供了进一步的指导。可能的风暴及其影响的范围以故事情节的形式综合起来，这些故事情节是对事件及其影响的叙述性描述，用于规划目的，从而促进未来的劳动力。在这项研究中该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation

利用高分辨率气候模型探索热带气旋后降水的未来变化

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2163
• 发表时间: 2024-02
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Bower, Erica;Reed, Kevin A.
• 通讯作者: Reed, Kevin A.