Collaborative Research: CAS-Climate: Reservoir dead pool in the western United States: probability and consequences of a novel extreme event

合作研究:CAS-气候:美国西部水库死池:新型极端事件的概率和后果

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    2241893
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 12.89万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2023-05-01 至 2026-04-30
  • 项目状态:
    未结题

项目摘要

In 2021, 645 MW of power from Oroville Dam (California) were unavailable to the electric grid for five months due to drought conditions that resulted in “dead pool”—the condition at which reservoir elevations are too low to produce power. Projections of dead pool at Glen Canyon Dam (Colorado) in 2022 prompted major water resources operational changes to avoid this event. Yet there is currently no answer for the question: In a warming climate, what is the probability that large quantities of power production capacity in the western U.S. will go offline due to dead pool? The answer to this question has fundamental consequences for a decarbonizing grid, as hydropower is a low-emissions, dispatchable energy source whose operational flexibility facilitates the use of variable renewable energy, such as wind and solar. This project will evaluate the probability of synchronous dead pool conditions across multiple reservoirs in the western U.S. and produce estimates of the power capacity reduction, duration, and frequency of dead pool events. The project will evaluate the impacts of such events on reliability failures, electricity costs and air pollution emissions. The project will investigate how dam operators respond to dead pool risk, and evaluate the impacts of these adaptations. Policy-relevant research results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publications, iterative feedback with dam operators, and ongoing collaboration with a stakeholder advisory committee to engage water and energy managers and policy-makers. The proposed research will specifically evaluate: (1) the probability of widespread dead pool events in future climates, (2) the consequences of these events for decarbonizing electric grids, and (3) the potential for reservoir management modifications to reduce the frequency of dead pool events. These research products will be coupled with ongoing collaboration with dam operators and energy-water system stakeholders to co-produce scientific results and enhance their utilization by water and energy managers. To achieve these research objectives, the project will apply a process-based modeling toolchain that incorporates extant downscaled climate data from the sixth coupled model intercomparison (CMIP6), land surface hydrology, and river routing and data-driven reservoir management with electric grid models that simulate capacity expansion and hourly production, along with qualitative interviews with dam operators to allow simulation of management adaptations. This project is co-funded by the Hydrologic Sciences, Environmental Sustainability, and Human-Environmental & Geographical Sciences programs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
2021 年,由于干旱导致“死池”,来自奥罗维尔大坝(加利福尼亚州)的 645 兆瓦电力无法并网五个月,即水库海拔太低而无法发电。 202 年,科罗拉多州格伦峡谷大坝的水池引发了重大的水资源运营变化,以避免这一事件,但目前还没有答案:在气候变暖的情况下,大量电力的可能性有多大。美国西部的生产能力将因死池而关闭吗?这个问题的答案对脱碳电网具有根本性影响,因为水电是一种低排放、可调度的能源,其运行灵活性有利于可变可再生能源的使用,例如该项目将评估美国西部多个水库同步死池条件的可能性,并对死池事件的发电容量减少、持续时间和频率进行估计。关于可靠性该项目将调查大坝运营商如何应对死池风险,并评估这些调整的影响,并通过同行评审的期刊出版物和大坝运营商的迭代反馈来传播。以及与利益相关者咨询委员会的持续合作,以吸引水和能源管理者和政策制定者参与。拟议的研究将具体评估:(1)未来气候中广泛发生死池事件的可能性,(2)这些事件对人类的影响。电力脱碳(3) 水库管理改造的潜力,以减少死池事件的频率。这些研究产品将与大坝运营商和能源水系统利益相关者的持续合作相结合,共同产生科学成果并通过以下方式提高其利用率。为了实现这些研究目标,该项目将应用基于流程的建模工具链,该工具链包含来自第六耦合模型比对(CMIP6)的现有缩小气候数据、地表水文以及河流路线和数据驱动的水库管理。与电网模型模拟容量扩张和每小时生产,以及与大坝运营商的定性访谈,以模拟管理适应。该项目由水文科学、环境可持续性以及人类环境和地理科学项目共同资助。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定奖项。使命,并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。

项目成果

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Jordan Kern其他文献

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations
波浪能在大容量电力系统运营中的机遇
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121845
  • 发表时间:
    2023-09-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    11.2
  • 作者:
    Kerem Ziya Akdemir;Bryson Robertson;Konstantinos Oikonomou;Jordan Kern;Nathalie Voisin;Sarmad Hanif;S. Bhattacharya
  • 通讯作者:
    S. Bhattacharya
Integrating wind, photovoltaic, and large hydropower during the reservoir refilling period
蓄水期风电、光伏、大水电一体化
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111778
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    10.4
  • 作者:
    Xianxun Wang;Edgar Virguez;Jordan Kern;Lihua Chen;Yadong Mei;Dalia Patiño-Echeverri;Hao Wang
  • 通讯作者:
    Hao Wang

Jordan Kern的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Jordan Kern', 18)}}的其他基金

CAREER: CAS- Climate: Navigating a Two-Front Challenge for the Power Grid: Extreme Weather and the Race to Decarbonization
职业:CAS-气候:应对电网的两线挑战:极端天气和脱碳竞赛
  • 批准号:
    2143851
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 12.89万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

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