CAREER: Understanding the Impacts of Future Sea Ice Loss on Large-Scale Patterns of Atmospheric Variability and Cold Air Outbreaks

职业：了解未来海冰流失对大气变化和冷空气爆发的大规模模式的影响

• 批准号: 2236771
• 负责人: Melissa Gervais
• 金额: $ 87.4万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-06-01 至 2028-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2236771&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Understanding; Impacts; Future; Sea

Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in the climate system and its loss owing to human-caused climate change can have a profound impact on the atmosphere. The goal of this project is to further our understanding of how future Arctic sea ice loss might impact daily weather patterns and extreme cold air outbreak events. A machine learning method (self-organizing maps) will be used to characterize daily weather patterns, and a feature-tracking algorithm (TempestExtremesV2.1) will be used to identify and track cold air outbreaks. These methods will be applied to a series of coordinated global climate model experiments created as part of the Polar Amplification Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) that were designed to study the causal impacts of sea ice loss. Scientific understanding of future changes in weather and climate must be accompanied by effective climate communication to the public to affect change. The education component of this project will include the development of a series of course modules designed to train broadcast meteorology and climate science students in effective climate communication. Furthermore, the investigator will conduct direct engagement with Pennsylvania residents through a quarterly climate segment on Penn State’s own PBS program Weather World.Extreme cold air outbreaks can have significant socio-economic impacts. One such example is the 2021 ‘Valentine’s Week Winter Outbreak’ that severely impacted the Texas power grid. Understanding how and why these events may change in the future can provide governments and industry with the information necessary to adapt to these changes. The proposed education plan will increase societal understanding of climate change related impacts, both by equipping the next generation of meteorologists and climate scientists with the tools necessary to conduct effective science communication and through the investigator’s appearances on Weather World. These activities will serve to improve public understanding, engagement, and ultimately action on climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北极海冰在气候系统中发挥着至关重要的作用，人为气候变化造成的北极海冰损失可能对大气产生深远影响。该项目的目标是进一步了解未来北极海冰损失可能对日常产生的影响。机器学习方法（自组织地图）将用于描述日常天气模式，特征跟踪算法（TempestExtremesV2.1）将用于识别和跟踪冷空气爆发。这些方法将应用于作为极地放大比对项目（PAMIP）的一部分创建的一系列协调的全球气候模型实验，旨在研究海冰消失的因果影响，必须辅以有效的气候沟通，以科学了解未来天气和气候的变化。该项目的教育部分将包括开发一系列课程模块，旨在培训广播气象学和气候科学学生进行有效的气候沟通。此外，调查人员将通过季度活动与宾夕法尼亚州居民进行直接接触。宾夕法尼亚州立大学自己的气候部分PBS 节目“天气世界”。极端冷空气的爆发可能会产生重大的社会经济影响，其中一个例子就是 2021 年的“情人节周冬季爆发”，它严重影响了德克萨斯州的电网，了解这些事件未来可能发生的变化以及原因可以提供帮助。拟议的教育计划将通过为下一代气象学家和气候科学家提供进行有效科学交流所需的工具以及通过调查员的这些活动将有助于提高公众对气候变化的理解、参与和最终行动。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。