Collaborative Research: ORCC: Climate and adaptation deficits: Mechanisms of response to climate change by the endangered North Atlantic right whale

合作研究：ORCC：气候和适应缺陷：濒临灭绝的北大西洋露脊鲸应对气候变化的机制

• 批准号: 2307754
• 负责人: Nicholas Record
• 金额: $ 92.41万
• 依托单位: Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-01 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2307754&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; ORCC; Climate; adaptation

A rapid climate shift in the Gulf of Maine in 2010 caused an abrupt redistribution in the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), leading to changing foraging patterns, higher mortality rates due to vessel collisions and entanglement in fishing gear, as well as a drop in the calving rate. This decline in population size and health has triggered the International Union for Conservation of Nature to re-classify right whale conservation status from endangered to critically endangered. The case of the right whale illustrates the ecological and socio-economic consequences of a lack of understanding of how an organism responds to climate change. Such rapid redistributions have previously been unpredictable, as right whale monitoring and modeling efforts are focused on known and accessible historic habitats. This project develops a new modeling framework to integrate novel right whale data with trans-boundary prey surveys to understand adaptation, identify potential habitats outside regular monitoring regions, and predict changes to right whale distribution in future decades. Model results will guide the development and implementation of protective policies administered by federal agencies and provide theoretical support for expanding dynamic management efforts. Project synthesis will be applied in organizations including the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team and the Regional Wildlife Science Collaborative for Offshore Wind. A publicly-available data science lesson plan will be developed to teach spatial analysis techniques and engender discussion on conservation management. This proposal seeks to utilize robust right whale and zooplankton monitoring data to build a next-generation species distribution model to explain and predict right whale foraging decisions and spatial distribution patterns. The research will test the hypothesis that there are measurable thresholds of prey density that cause individual animals to utilize or abandon a foraging site. However, these prey density thresholds may vary depending on environmental factors such as prey species, site, and season, or by demographic factors such as right whale age and reproductive status. Using consecutive sightings of identified individuals, an individual movement model will be developed to understand foraging decision-making and estimate prey density thresholds across this range of environmental and demographic variables. This model will be coupled with genetic analysis of right whale fecal samples to identify prey taxa and prey ratios in distinct habitats and foraging seasons. Prey thresholds will be incorporated into a prey patch model spanning the North Atlantic to characterize the spatial and temporal occurrence of suitable foraging habitat. Then a next-generation species distribution modeling framework will be used that draws on behavioral thresholds resolved from the individual movement model and prey patch occurrence models parameterized by prey content in the fecal samples. This modeling framework will provide new predictive capacity for determining when right whales may shift foraging patterns and which habitats are suitable for becoming a novel foraging hot spot. Model results will be used to quantify the bioenergetic and anthropogenic components of the climate change effect on right whale populations.This award was co-funded through the GEO/OCE Biological Oceanography Program and the BIO/IOS Organismal Responses to Climate Change Program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

2010 年缅因湾气候快速变化，导致濒临灭绝的北大西洋露脊鲸 (Eubalaena glacialis) 突然重新分布，导致觅食模式发生变化、船只碰撞和渔具缠绕导致死亡率上升，以及产犊率下降。种群数量和健康状况的下降促使国际自然保护联盟将露脊鲸的保护状态从濒危状态重新分类为极度濒危状态。露脊鲸的案例说明了由于缺乏对生物体如何应对气候变化的了解而造成的生态和社会经济后果。如此快速的重新分布以前是不可预测的，因为露脊鲸的监测和建模工作主要集中在已知且可到达的历史栖息地。该项目开发了一个新的建模框架，将新的露脊鲸数据与跨境猎物调查相结合，以了解适应情况，识别常规监测区域之外的潜在栖息地，并预测未来几十年露脊鲸分布的变化。模型结果将指导联邦机构管理的保护政策的制定和实施，并为扩大动态管理工作提供理论支持。项目综合将应用于包括大西洋大型鲸鱼减少捕捞小组和海上风电区域野生动物科学合作组织在内的组织。将制定一个公开的数据科学课程计划来教授空间分析技术并引发有关保护管理的讨论。该提案旨在利用强大的露脊鲸和浮游动物监测数据来构建下一代物种分布模型，以解释和预测露脊鲸的觅食决策和空间分布模式。该研究将检验这样一个假设：存在可测量的猎物密度阈值，导致个体动物利用或放弃觅食地点。然而，这些猎物密度阈值可能会根据猎物种类、地点和季节等环境因素或露脊鲸年龄和繁殖状态等人口因素而变化。利用对已识别个体的连续目击，将开发个体运动模型，以了解觅食决策并估计整个环境和人口变量范围内的猎物密度阈值。该模型将与露脊鲸粪便样本的遗传分析相结合，以识别不同栖息地和觅食季节的猎物分类群和猎物比例。猎物阈值将被纳入横跨北大西洋的猎物斑块模型中，以描述合适觅食栖息地的空间和时间发生情况。然后，将使用下一代物种分布建模框架，该框架利用从个体运动模型解析的行为阈值和由粪便样本中的猎物内容参数化的猎物斑块发生模型。该建模框架将为确定露脊鲸何时可能改变觅食模式以及哪些栖息地适合成为新的觅食热点提供新的预测能力。模型结果将用于量化气候变化对露脊鲸种群影响的生物能和人为因素。该奖项由 GEO/OCE 生物海洋学计划和 BIO/IOS 气候变化组织响应计划共同资助。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。