Collaborative Research: ORCC: Climate and adaptation deficits: Mechanisms of response to climate change by the endangered North Atlantic right whale

合作研究：ORCC：气候和适应缺陷：濒临灭绝的北大西洋露脊鲸应对气候变化的机制

• 批准号: 2307754
• 负责人: Nicholas Record
• 金额: $ 92.41万
• 依托单位: Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-01 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2307754&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; ORCC; Climate; adaptation

A rapid climate shift in the Gulf of Maine in 2010 caused an abrupt redistribution in the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), leading to changing foraging patterns, higher mortality rates due to vessel collisions and entanglement in fishing gear, as well as a drop in the calving rate. This decline in population size and health has triggered the International Union for Conservation of Nature to re-classify right whale conservation status from endangered to critically endangered. The case of the right whale illustrates the ecological and socio-economic consequences of a lack of understanding of how an organism responds to climate change. Such rapid redistributions have previously been unpredictable, as right whale monitoring and modeling efforts are focused on known and accessible historic habitats. This project develops a new modeling framework to integrate novel right whale data with trans-boundary prey surveys to understand adaptation, identify potential habitats outside regular monitoring regions, and predict changes to right whale distribution in future decades. Model results will guide the development and implementation of protective policies administered by federal agencies and provide theoretical support for expanding dynamic management efforts. Project synthesis will be applied in organizations including the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team and the Regional Wildlife Science Collaborative for Offshore Wind. A publicly-available data science lesson plan will be developed to teach spatial analysis techniques and engender discussion on conservation management. This proposal seeks to utilize robust right whale and zooplankton monitoring data to build a next-generation species distribution model to explain and predict right whale foraging decisions and spatial distribution patterns. The research will test the hypothesis that there are measurable thresholds of prey density that cause individual animals to utilize or abandon a foraging site. However, these prey density thresholds may vary depending on environmental factors such as prey species, site, and season, or by demographic factors such as right whale age and reproductive status. Using consecutive sightings of identified individuals, an individual movement model will be developed to understand foraging decision-making and estimate prey density thresholds across this range of environmental and demographic variables. This model will be coupled with genetic analysis of right whale fecal samples to identify prey taxa and prey ratios in distinct habitats and foraging seasons. Prey thresholds will be incorporated into a prey patch model spanning the North Atlantic to characterize the spatial and temporal occurrence of suitable foraging habitat. Then a next-generation species distribution modeling framework will be used that draws on behavioral thresholds resolved from the individual movement model and prey patch occurrence models parameterized by prey content in the fecal samples. This modeling framework will provide new predictive capacity for determining when right whales may shift foraging patterns and which habitats are suitable for becoming a novel foraging hot spot. Model results will be used to quantify the bioenergetic and anthropogenic components of the climate change effect on right whale populations.This award was co-funded through the GEO/OCE Biological Oceanography Program and the BIO/IOS Organismal Responses to Climate Change Program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

2010年，缅因州海湾的快速气候变化导致濒临灭绝的北大西洋右鲸（Eubalaena glacialis）突然重新分配，导致觅食模式发生了变化，由于捕捞齿轮中的船只碰撞而导致的较高死亡率，以及产量下降。人口规模和健康的下降引发了国际自然保护联盟，从濒临灭绝的濒危危险中重新分类右鲸鱼保护状况。右鲸鱼的案例说明了对生物体如何应对气候变化的反应的生态和社会经济后果。这种快速的再分配以前是无法预测的，因为正确的鲸鱼监测和建模工作集中在已知且可访问的历史栖息地。该项目开发了一个新的建模框架，以将新颖的右鲸数据与跨界猎物调查相结合，以了解适应性，确定常规监测区域之外的潜在栖息地，并预测未来几十年中正确的鲸鱼分布的变化。模型结果将指导联邦机构管理的保护政策的制定和实施，并为扩大动态管理工作提供理论支持。项目综合将应用于包括大西洋大鲸鱼减少团队和离岸风的区域野生动植物科学合作的组织中。将制定一项公开可用的数据科学课程计划，以教授空间分析技术和有关保护管理的讨论。该提案旨在利用强大的右鲸和浮游动物监测数据来建立下一代物种分布模型，以解释和预测正确的鲸鱼觅食决策和空间分布模式。该研究将检验以下假设：猎物密度有可测量的阈值，这些阈值会导致单个动物利用或放弃觅食部位。但是，这些猎物密度阈值可能会根据诸如猎物物种，现场和季节或人口统计因素（例如正确的鲸鱼年龄和生殖状态）等环境因素而有所不同。使用对已识别个体的连续目击事件，将开发单个运动模型，以了解觅食的决策，并估计跨环境和人口统计学变量范围内的猎物密度阈值。该模型将与右鲸鱼样品的遗传分析相结合，以鉴定不同栖息地和觅食季节中的猎物分类单元和猎物比率。猎物阈值将被纳入横跨北大西洋的猎物斑块模型，以表征合适的觅食栖息地的空间和时间出现。然后，将使用下一代物种分布建模框架，该框架利用从单个运动模型和捕食斑块出现模型中通过粪便样品中的猎物含量进行参数的行为阈值。该建模框架将为确定正确的鲸鱼何时可以改变觅食模式以及哪些栖息地适合成为新型觅食热点。模型结果将用于量化气候变化对正确鲸鱼的影响的生物能和人为组成部分。该奖项是通过GEO/OCE生物海洋学计划以及Biio/IOS生物体反应共同资助的，以及对气候变化计划的生物/IOS生物体反应。这些奖项通过NSF的批准，反映了NSF的法定任务和范围，这是由NSF的范围进行的，其构成的构成是在范围内的构成，其构成的构成是构成的，其构建的构成是构成的，其构成的构成是构成的，其构成的构成是由构成的构建，其构成的基础是基础，这一奖项的构成了。 标准。