Computational modeling of volcanic eruptions and their seismic and infrasound radiation

火山喷发及其地震和次声辐射的计算模型

• 批准号: 2231849
• 负责人: Eric Dunham
• 金额: $ 42.21万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-06-15 至 2026-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2231849&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Computational; modeling; volcanic; eruptions; their

Explosive volcanic eruptions similar to the 1980 Mount Saint Helens eruption can be monitored from a safe distance using seismometers, which measure shaking of the ground, and microphones, which measure sound waves in the atmosphere. The overall goal of this project is to develop connections between shaking, sound waves, what’s going on inside a volcano and its eruption plume, and why explosive eruptions occur. One possibility is that the magma conduit gets blocked, leading to pressure build-up which eventually destroys the blockage and causes an eruption. The project team will develop computer simulations that track magma as it travels through the volcanic conduit (in some cases, having to break through blockages), becomes fragmented, and is discharged into the atmosphere. These simulations can predict sound waves and ground shaking generated by the eruption. Predictions from the models will be compared with data from the 2013-2014 explosive eruptions of Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador, which are probably the most powerful explosive eruptions ever recorded. This research will be done in partnership with the Instituto Geofisico in Ecuador, who will be providing data and expert knowledge of the eruptions. The project will provide training for two to three PhD students and several undergraduates, and all of the computer programs the team develops to simulate the eruptions will be freely shared with other scientists.This project develops models of seismic and infrasound radiation from vulcanian eruptions. The goal is to use seismic and infrasound data to quantify the depth of fragmentation, the forces associated with plug rupture at the onset of eruptions, the mass eruption rate and total erupted mass, and the vertical momentum exchange between the solid Earth and atmosphere. These are useful to understand fundamental processes involved in vulcanian eruptions (e.g., under what conditions does a plug form and what causes it to rupture) and to provide inputs to eruption plume modeling. The project builds on previous NSF-supported work by the project team that produced the theory and workflow to compute synthetic seismograms from unsteady conduit flow models. The project team is continuing work on an open-source code that couples conduit flow to a compressible atmosphere, thereby also providing predictions of infrasound radiation and the flow structure of the eruptive jet and plume. This overall modeling framework will be used for generic studies to understand processes as well as to study actual eruptions for which seismic and infrasound data are available. For the latter, the project team has partnered with the Insituto Geofisico, Ecuador, to model the well-recorded 2013-2014 eruption of Tungurahua volcano. An additional component of the project is a study of seismic eruption tremor (incoherent waves in the ~1-10 Hz band), a ubiquitous characteristic of explosive eruptions that in some cases is correlated with plume height. The project team will explore multiple hypotheses for eruption tremor, including turbulence and particle-wall interactions above fragmentation, as well as unsteadiness of the fragmentation process as magma with variable viscosity and other properties passes through the fragmentation depth. Finally, the project team is incorporating water (including phase changes) into their multiphase modeling code, giving them the ability to study the interaction of magma with groundwater and seawater, including submarine eruptions. The open-source codes and modeling workflows will be provided to the community for use by volcano observatories and other researchers.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

与 1980 年圣海伦斯火山喷发类似的火山喷发可以使用地震仪（测量地面震动）和麦克风（测量大气中的声波）在安全距离内进行监测。该项目的总体目标是建立两者之间的联系。震动、声波、火山内部发生的情况及其喷发羽流，以及为什么会发生爆炸性喷发。一种可能性是岩浆管道被堵塞，导致压力积聚。最终破坏堵塞物并导致喷发，项目团队将开发计算机模拟来跟踪岩浆穿过火山管道（在某些情况下，必须突破堵塞物），变得碎片化并排放到大气中。模拟可以预测火山喷发产生的声波和地面震动。模型的预测将与 2013 年至 2014 年通古拉瓦火山爆发的数据进行比较。厄瓜多尔，这可能是有史以来最强大的爆发性喷发。这项研究将与厄瓜多尔地理研究所合作完成，该研究所将提供有关喷发的数据和专家知识。该项目将为两到三名博士生提供培训。和几名本科生，该团队开发的用于模拟火山喷发的所有计算机程序都将与其他科学家免费共享。该项目开发了火山喷发的地震和次声辐射模型。目标是利用地震和次声数据来量化碎裂深度、喷发开始时与岩塞破裂相关的力、大规模喷发速率和总喷发质量，以及固体地球和大气之间的垂直动量交换。了解火山喷发所涉及的基本过程（例如，在什么条件下形成塞子以及导致其破裂的原因），并为喷发羽流建模提供输入。项目团队之前支持的工作，产生了根据非稳态管道流模型计算合成地震图的理论和工作流程，该项目团队正在继续研究将管道流与可压缩大气耦合的开源代码，从而提供预测。该整体建模框架将用于一般研究，以了解过程以及研究地震和次声数据所涉及的实际喷发。对于后者，项目团队与厄瓜多尔 Insituto Geofisico 合作，对 2013-2014 年通古拉瓦火山喷发进行了详细记录，该项目的另一个组成部分是对地震喷发震颤（火山喷发中的不相干波）的研究。 ~1-10 Hz 频段），这是爆炸性喷发的普遍特征，在某些情况下与羽流高度相关。探索喷发震颤的多种假设，包括破碎上方的湍流和颗粒壁相互作用，以及当具有可变粘度和其他特性的岩浆穿过破碎深度时破碎过程的不稳定。更改）到他们的多相建模代码中，使他们能够研究岩浆与地下水和海水的相互作用，包括海底喷发。开源代码和建模工作流程将提供给社区供火山使用。天文台和其他研究人员。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。