Collaborative Research: Untangling the Changing Nature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Driven Terrestrial Impacts

合作研究：解开厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 驱动的陆地影响的性质变化

• 批准号: 2223263
• 负责人: Sarah Larson
• 金额: $ 34.11万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-11-01 至 2025-10-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2223263&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Untangling; Changing; Nature

El Niño is primarily identified by a large pool of warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that persists for several months in a row. El Niño, and its cooler-than-average counterpart La Niña, affects global weather and climate by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño can be predicted several months in advance, and so can provide an early picture of expected weather and climate patterns over North America and other highly populated regions of the world. It is not yet clear how El Niño will change in a future climate, with some studies suggesting it will get stronger, weaker, more or less frequent, or even that El Niño will become more frequent while La Niña diminishes, and so on. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how the future climate, which is expected to be warmer and wetter, will alter El Niño impacts. This study uses a sophisticated computer model simulation of the global atmosphere and ocean to untangle these interactions and understand how different possible changes in El Niño in turn lead to changes in their impacts. For example, if future El Niño events are stronger than current ones, how do temperature and precipitation patterns over North America change in a future climate? The investigators will systematically test several potential scenarios, uncovering the physical mechanisms that cause the changes in impacts. This study also seeks to understand if El Niño impacts may become more predictable, or less predictable, depending on how El Niño changes in the future. The outcomes of this study will contribute to our understanding of how El Niño affects North American weather and climate patterns and what can be expected under climate change.The broader impacts of this work are centered in four areas. Integration of Research and Education: The proposed work will train two graduate students and results will be integrated into classroom materials. Public Outreach: Public outreach will be facilitated through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate.gov blog about El Niño. Societal Impacts: Under the current climate, El Niño’s impacts are far-reaching and highly impactful. The proposed work will contribute to improved understanding of the uncertainty in seasonal climate forecasts through a greater understanding of variability contingent on El Niño statistics and climate change. Data use beyond the lifetime of this project: The output generated via the proposed experiments will be useful not only for El Niño applications, but also for understanding how other climate variability is modulated by El Niño and future mean state changes. The investigators will share data with interested groups to support such efforts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

厄尔尼诺现象的主要特征是热带太平洋中出现大量比平均水平温暖的海水，该现象连续持续数月，而厄尔尼诺现象则与比平均水平凉爽的拉尼娜现象相对应，通过以下方式影响全球天气和气候。厄尔尼诺现象可以提前几个月进行预测，从而提供北美和世界其他人口稠密地区的预期天气和气候模式的早期图像。目前尚不清楚厄尔尼诺现象将如何变化。在未来的气候下，一些研究表明，厄尔尼诺现象会变得更强、更弱、频率更高或更低，甚至厄尔尼诺现象会变得更加频繁，而拉尼娜现象会减弱等等。此外，未来的气候预计会变暖，也存在不确定性。这项研究使用复杂的计算机模型模拟全球大气和海洋来理清这些相互作用，并了解厄尔尼诺现象的不同可能变化如何导致其影响的变化。厄尔尼诺事件比研究人员将系统地测试几种潜在的情景，揭示导致影响变化的物理机制。这项研究还试图了解厄尔尼诺现象的影响是否可能会发生变化。更可预测或更难预测，取决于厄尔尼诺现象未来如何变化。这项研究的结果将有助于我们了解厄尔尼诺现象如何影响北美天气和气候模式以及气候变化下的预期结果。这项工作集中在四个领域。教育：拟议的工作将培训两名研究生，结果将纳入课堂材料中：将通过国家海洋和大气管理局关于厄尔尼诺现象的气候.gov 博客促进公众宣传：在当前气候下，厄尔尼诺现象的影响是深远且具有高度影响力的，拟议的工作将有助于通过更好地了解厄尔尼诺现象统计数据和本项目生命周期之外的气候变化的变化情况，提高对季节性气候预测的不确定性的了解。通过拟议的实验产生的输出不仅对厄尔尼诺现象有用，而且有助于了解厄尔尼诺现象如何调节其他气候变化以及未来的平均状态变化。研究人员将与感兴趣的团体共享数据以支持此类努力。授予 NSF 的法定使命，并通过评估反映使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准，被认为值得支持。