Collaborative Research: ORCC:RUI: Integrating evolutionary and migratory potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata into forecasts of range-wide population dynamics under climate change

合作研究：ORCC：RUI：将 Chamaecrista fasciculata 的进化和迁徙潜力纳入气候变化下范围内种群动态的预测中

• 批准号: 2220928
• 负责人: Seema Sheth
• 金额: $ 39.94万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2220928&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; ORCC; RUI; Integrating

Successful conservation of global biodiversity requires that biologists accurately predict the risk of species extinction under future climate conditions. However, current models often make simplifying assumptions about the biology of plants and animals. For example, some models assume that a species can easily migrate through the landscape when this is not the case, or that a species is not able to evolve rapidly to environmental change when this is actually a possibility. Our interdisciplinary team will study the biology of a plant species to determine what data researchers and conservationists need to predict how climate change will influence extinction risk for plants in the natural environment. We will use the partridge pea (Chamaecrista fasciculata), a common and widespread plant in natural grasslands, to identify the type of data needed to improve ecological models for conservation planning. We will evaluate genetic differences and rates of gene flow among populations and estimate these populations’ ability to evolve in response to climate change to identify models that best describe or forecast rates of change under new climate conditions. In collaboration with the Georgia Plant Conservation Alliance and the Southeastern Grasslands Initiative, we will apply what we learn to develop a series of tools that practitioners can use to predict extinction risks under climate change for at-risk grassland species. This work will significantly improve our ability to protect biodiversity in the southeastern U.S. and in habitats around the world.Populations across the range of a species vary in their migratory and adaptive potential under climate change. Most approaches aimed at predicting population persistence under climate change make simplifying assumptions about plasticity, adaptation, and gene flow that are commonly violated in natural systems. We combine approaches from evolutionary biology, field ecology, and population genomics to forecast range-wide dynamics under climate change in a broadly distributed native legume (Chamaecrista fasciculata). Our studies examine the migratory potential of populations under climate change using population genomic estimators of historical gene flow. To evaluate adaptive potential, we will expose paternal half-sib families from 12 populations to contemporary climates and simulated climate change in common gardens across the range. Finally, we will forecast eco-evolutionary dynamics under climate change using models that differ in the degree to which they incorporate data on species occurrence, additive genetic variance in fitness in response to climate, trait expression, sequence variation, and gene flow. Our work will provide a robust framework for predictions of range-wide responses to climate change in systems that are less amenable to manipulation. We will collaborate with conservation practitioners in the Georgia Plant Conservation Alliance and Southeastern Grasslands Initiative to produce risk assessment tools that project range dynamics under climate change for endangered plant species. In workshops, we will discuss our progress and provide opportunities for our trainees to forge connections with conservation practitioners. The PIs will recruit, train, and mentor scholars from historically marginalized backgrounds in population genomics, quantitative genetics, data analysis, and ecological modeling.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

成功保护全球生物多样性要求生物学家在未来的气候条件下准确预测物种延伸的风险。但是，当前的模型通常会简化有关动植物生物学的假设。例如，某些模型假设一个物种在事实并非如此，或者物种实际上实际上可能无法迅速发展到环境变化。我们的跨学科团队将研究植物物种的生物学，以确定数据研究人员和保护主义者需要哪些预测气候变化将如何影响自然环境中植物的延伸风险。我们将使用天然草原的一种常见和宽度植物的Partridge Pea（Chamaecrista fasciculata）来确定改善保护生态模型所需的数据类型。我们将评估人群中基因流的遗传差异和基因流量的速率，并估算这些人群以响应气候变化而发展的能力，以识别在新的气候条件下最能描述或预测变化速率的模型。通过与佐治亚州植物保护联盟和东南草原倡议合作，我们将应用我们学会的知识来开发一系列工具，从业人员可以使用这些工具来预测高危草地种类的气候变化下的扩展风险。这项工作将大大提高我们保护美国东南部和世界各地栖息地的生物多样性的能力。种群在气候变化下的迁徙和适应性潜力各不相同。大多数旨在预测气候变化下人口持久性的方法，可以简化关于自然系统中通常违反的可塑性，适应性和基因流量的假设。我们将进化生物学，现场生态学和人群基因组学的方法结合在一起，以预测广泛分布的天然豆类（Chamaecrista fasciculata）的气候变化下的范围范围动态。我们的研究使用历史基因流量的种群基因组估计量来研究气候变化下人口的迁徙潜力。为了评估自适应潜力，我们将从12个人群中揭露父亲的半身家庭，并在整个范围内的普通花园中模拟气候变化。最后，我们将使用模型在气候变化下预测生态进化的动力学，这些模型在伴奏攀爬，性状表达，序列变异和基因流动的响应程度上融合了物种数据的程度，适应性的添加剂遗传差异。我们的工作将为预测范围范围内对气候变化的响应的预测较不适合操纵的范围提供强大的框架。我们将与佐治亚州植物保护联盟和东南草原倡议的保护从业人员合作，以生产风险评估工具，这些工具在濒危植物物种的气候变化下进行项目范围动态。在研讨会上，我们将讨论我们的进步，并为学员提供与保护从业者建立联系的机会。 PI将在人口基因组学，定量遗传学，数据分析和生态建模中从历史上边缘化的背景中招募，训练和精神学者。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准通过评估来通过评估来支持的。