Collaborative Research: Improving Model Representations of Antarctic Ice-shelf Instability and Break-up due to Surface Meltwater Processes

合作研究：改进地表融水过程导致的南极冰架不稳定和破裂的模型表示

• 批准号: 2213705
• 负责人: Bradley Lipovsky
• 金额: $ 37.17万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2025-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2213705&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Improving; Model; Representations; Collaborative; Research; Improving; Model; Representations

Ice shelves are the floating extensions of glaciers on land. They surround 75 percent of Antarctica and have an important role in regulating the rate that inland glacier ice is lost to the ocean, which leads to sea-level rise. Meltwater that ponds on the surfaces of these ice shelves has been observed to cause ice shelves to flex and fracture, and, in some cases, to experience large-scale collapse events. For example, the near-complete collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002 is thought to have been caused by the drainage of over 2000 surface lakes during just a number of weeks. Extensive ponding is observed on many of Antarctica’s ice shelves. As atmospheric temperatures increase, surface meltwater-induced ice-shelf breakup events are expected to increase in areal extent and frequency. However, future predictions of such events lack accuracy because no large-scale ice-sheet model is able to realistically simulate the processes involved in surface-meltwater-induced ice-shelf breakup. This project aims to address the current modeling limitation by developing a new component for the continental-scale Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) that will be capable of simulating surface meltwater-induced flexure, fracture, and large-scale ice-shelf break-up. By forcing the model with a suite of future climate-change scenarios the project aims to deliver more accurate estimates of Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea-level rise over the remainder of this century and beyond.To achieve the project’s ultimate step of developing a new model component for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), the team will first develop a coupled process-scale model of ice-shelf hydrology-flow-flexure-fracture (the H3F model). This is required because the physics involved in ice-shelf collapse typically occurs on finer temporal and spatial scales than captured by continental ice-sheet models such as ISSM. Once the H3F model is developed, it will be used to quantify relationships between surface meltwater processes, ice flow, viscoelastic flexure, and hydrofracture. The team will translate these relationships to the ice-sheet scale by developing a machine-learning-leveraged statistical emulator of the H3F model. This approach towards multi-physics modeling aims to provide new inroads to the computationally challenging problem of surface meltwater-induced ice-shelf collapse at both small- and continental-scales. Broader impacts of the project will include public education and engagement through development of a children’s web application, interaction with a Chicago-based artist collective, and development of ISSM’s outreach webpage to facilitate interactive visualizations of Antarctica ice-shelf collapse events under a range of future climate scenarios.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

冰架是陆地上冰川的浮动延伸。它们围绕着南极75％的人，在调查内陆冰川冰损失的速度方面发挥着重要作用，从而导致海平面上升。已经观察到在这些冰架表面上的桥梁会导致冰架弯曲和裂缝，在某些情况下会经历大规模倒塌事件。例如，2002年，Larsen B冰架几乎完全崩溃被认为是由于在短短数周内的2000多个地面湖泊引流而引起的。在南极的许多冰架上都观察到了广泛的池塘。随着大气温度的升高，预计表面融合水诱导的冰架破裂事件将增加面积的范围和频率。但是，对此类事件的未来预测缺乏准确性，因为没有大规模的冰盖模型能够现实地模拟与表面融合诱导的冰壳破裂相关的过程。该项目旨在通过为连续规模的冰盖和海平面系统模型（ISSM）开发新组件来解决当前的建模限制，该组件将能够模拟表面融合熔融诱导的弯曲，裂缝和大规模冰壳破裂。通过用一套未来的气候变化场景强迫模型，该项目旨在更准确地估算南极对未来全球海平面上升的贡献，在本世纪的其余部分及以后。要实现该项目的最终步骤，以开发新的模型组成部分，以开发一个新的模型，以开发冰上和海平面系统模型（ISSM），该公司将首先开发一个冰模型的冰上的冰上的模型。氢化学 - 流膜骨折（H3F模型）。这是必需的，因为冰出塌陷的物理通常发生在比连续的冰盖模型（例如ISSM）捕获的临时和空间尺度上。一旦开发了H3F模型，它将用于量化表面融化过程，冰流，粘弹性弯曲和氢骨骨折之间的关系。该团队将通过开发H3F模型的机器学习式统计模拟器来将这些关系转化为冰盖量表。这种多物理建模的方法旨在为小型和连续阶段的表面融合诱导的冰出塌陷的计算挑战问题提供新的侵害。该项目的更广泛影响将包括通过开发儿童网络应用程序，与芝加哥的艺术家集体的互动以及ISSM的宣传网页的开发，以促进南极洲冰壳崩溃事件的互动可视化事件，这是在一系列未来的气候下的情况下，这些奖项通过NSF的法定秘密及其支持的支持，这是NSF的众多奖励，以促进NSF的法定秘密，以促进NSF的法定秘密，以促进互动的互动。 标准。