Integrating phenology and demography to understand the consequences of phenological shifts for plant population dynamics

整合物候学和人口统计学来了解物候变化对植物种群动态的影响

• 批准号: 2211721
• 负责人: Amy Iler
• 金额: $ 63.91万
• 依托单位: Chicago Horticultural Society
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2211721&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Integrating; phenology; demography; understand; consequences

The Earth’s changing climate is disrupting many aspects of the natural world. Timing of flowering and when birds lay eggs have shifted, and this can disrupt other natural processes. Little is known about whether these changes in reproductive timing affect the ability of populations to persist, grow, or vanish into extinction. A large gap in scientific understanding exists because few studies have directly linked changes in plant timing to consequences for plant populations. This research will address this scientific gap by using a field experiment where plants are forced to leaf out and flower earlier, and compared to unmanipulated ‘control’ plants, followed by simulations of how the populations will fare in these different scenarios. This project provides many training and career opportunities, including research positions, science communication workshops for college students, K–12 public school teacher training workshops, and K–12 curriculum that will be made publicly available to teachers. This project provides societal benefits because it assesses the risk of a changing climate to plant populations and therefore to all of the benefits that plants provide: clean air, food, recreation, ecosystem services like pollination and pest control, and benefits for human health. This research will link climate change-induced shifts in plant phenology – the timing of life-cycle events ¬– to plant population dynamics. It has been widely hypothesized that shifts in phenology will affect population persistence because phenology influences the survival and reproduction of organisms, and survival and reproduction in turn determine population growth. To address this hypothesis, the researchers will conduct an experimental demography project in which the phenology of four plant species will be advanced via experimental manipulation of the timing of spring snowmelt in a subalpine ecosystem. Advanced phenology will then be associated with changes in vital rates: survival, vegetative growth, reproduction, and recruitment. Specifically, earlier leaf expansion is expected to affect survival and vegetative growth, earlier flowering is expected to affect reproduction, and earlier germination is expected to affect recruitment. The demographic data will parameterize integral projection models (IPMs) for each species, and Life Table Response Experiments will determine which vital rate, if any, these advanced reproductive events affects population growth rates. The researchers will additionally use Structural Equation Modeling to investigate the abiotic and biotic factors through which advanced life-cycle events affect vital rates: longer drought periods, longer growing seasons, and herbivory under earlier leaf-out or germination and interactions with pollinators under earlier flowering.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

地球变化的气候正在破坏自然世界的许多方面。开花的时机以及鸟产卵的卵发生了变化，这会破坏其他自然过程。关于这些生殖时机的这些变化是否影响人群持续，成长或消失的能力是否众所周知。存在科学理解的巨大差距，因为很少有研究将植物时间的变化与植物种群的后果联系起来。这项研究将通过使用野外实验来解决这一科学差距，在该实验中，植物被迫较早地放开和开花，并与未经操纵的“对照”植物进行了比较，然后模拟了种群在这些不同情况下的出现方式。该项目提供了许多培训和职业机会，包括研究职位，大学生的科学沟通讲习班，K – 12公立学校教师培训研讨会和K -122年课程，这些课程将公开向教师公开。该项目提供社会利益，因为它评估了植物种群不断变化的气候的风险，因此可以评估植物所提供的所有好处：清洁空气，食物，娱乐，生态系统服务（如授粉和有害生物控制）以及对人类健康的益处。这项研究将将气候变化引起的植物物候变化（生命周期事件的时机■）与植物种群动态联系起来。人们普遍认为，物候学的转变会影响人口持久性，因为物候学会影响生物的生存和繁殖，而生存和繁殖又决定了人口的增长。为了解决这一假设，研究人员将进行一个实验性人群项目，在该项目中，将通过对亚高山生态系统中春天融化的时间安排进行四种植物物种的物候学。然后，晚期物质学将与生命率的变化有关：生存，营养生长，繁殖和招募。具体而言，较早的叶片膨胀有望影响生存和营养生长，预计早期的开花会影响繁殖，并且预计较早的发芽会影响招募。人口统计数据将对每个物种的积分投影模型（IPM）进行参数化，生命表响应实验将确定这些高级生殖事件会影响人口增长率的哪种重要率（如果有）。研究人员还将使用结构方程建模来研究高级生命周期事件影响重要率的非生物和生物因素：在早期的叶出面或发芽或发芽和与授粉的相互作用和与以前的授粉相互作用下，较长的生长季节以及食草动物在早期开花下的相互作用。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估范围来进行评估的构成群体，以构成构成的范围。