Integrating phenology and demography to understand the consequences of phenological shifts for plant population dynamics

整合物候学和人口统计学来了解物候变化对植物种群动态的影响

• 批准号: 2211721
• 负责人: Amy Iler
• 金额: $ 63.91万
• 依托单位: Chicago Horticultural Society
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2211721&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Integrating; phenology; demography; understand; consequences

The Earth’s changing climate is disrupting many aspects of the natural world. Timing of flowering and when birds lay eggs have shifted, and this can disrupt other natural processes. Little is known about whether these changes in reproductive timing affect the ability of populations to persist, grow, or vanish into extinction. A large gap in scientific understanding exists because few studies have directly linked changes in plant timing to consequences for plant populations. This research will address this scientific gap by using a field experiment where plants are forced to leaf out and flower earlier, and compared to unmanipulated ‘control’ plants, followed by simulations of how the populations will fare in these different scenarios. This project provides many training and career opportunities, including research positions, science communication workshops for college students, K–12 public school teacher training workshops, and K–12 curriculum that will be made publicly available to teachers. This project provides societal benefits because it assesses the risk of a changing climate to plant populations and therefore to all of the benefits that plants provide: clean air, food, recreation, ecosystem services like pollination and pest control, and benefits for human health. This research will link climate change-induced shifts in plant phenology – the timing of life-cycle events ¬– to plant population dynamics. It has been widely hypothesized that shifts in phenology will affect population persistence because phenology influences the survival and reproduction of organisms, and survival and reproduction in turn determine population growth. To address this hypothesis, the researchers will conduct an experimental demography project in which the phenology of four plant species will be advanced via experimental manipulation of the timing of spring snowmelt in a subalpine ecosystem. Advanced phenology will then be associated with changes in vital rates: survival, vegetative growth, reproduction, and recruitment. Specifically, earlier leaf expansion is expected to affect survival and vegetative growth, earlier flowering is expected to affect reproduction, and earlier germination is expected to affect recruitment. The demographic data will parameterize integral projection models (IPMs) for each species, and Life Table Response Experiments will determine which vital rate, if any, these advanced reproductive events affects population growth rates. The researchers will additionally use Structural Equation Modeling to investigate the abiotic and biotic factors through which advanced life-cycle events affect vital rates: longer drought periods, longer growing seasons, and herbivory under earlier leaf-out or germination and interactions with pollinators under earlier flowering.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

地球气候的变化正在扰乱自然界的许多方面，开花时间和鸟类产卵时间也发生了变化，这可能会扰乱其他自然过程，但人们对这些繁殖时间的变化是否会影响种群的生存能力知之甚少。科学认识上存在很大差距，因为很少有研究将植物生长时间的变化与植物种群的后果直接联系起来。这项研究将通过使用植物被迫落叶和消失的田间实验来解决这一科学差距。与未处理的相比，开花更早“控制”植物，然后模拟种群在这些不同情况下的表现。该项目提供了许多培训和职业机会，包括研究职位、大学生科学传播研讨会、K-12 公立学校教师培训研讨会和 K 项目。 –12 将向教师公开的课程该项目提供社会效益，因为它评估了气候变化对植物种群的风险，从而评估了植物提供的所有好处：清洁空气、食物、娱乐、生态系统服务，例如这项研究对授粉和害虫防治以及对人类健康的益处。将气候变化引起的植物物候变化（生命周期事件的发生时间）与植物种群动态联系起来。人们广泛认为物候变化会影响种群的持久性，因为物候影响生物体的生存和繁殖以及生存。为了解决这一假设，研究人员将进行一项实验人口学项目，其中将通过对亚高山生态系统中春季融雪时间的实验控制来推进四种植物的物候学。是与生命率的变化相关：存活、营养生长、繁殖和补充。具体来说，较早的叶片扩张预计会影响存活和营养生长，较早的开花预计会影响繁殖，而较早的发芽预计会影响人口统计。数据将对每个物种的积分预测模型（IPM）进行参数化，生命表响应实验将确定这些高级繁殖事件影响种群增长率的生命率（如果有）。研究人员还将使用结构方程模型来研究非生物。高级生命周期事件影响生命率的生物因素：更长的干旱期、更长的生长季节、早期落叶或发芽下的草食性以及早期开花下与传粉媒介的相互作用。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并被认为是值得的通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来获得支持。