Collaborative Research: Atmospheric Ridging over Western North America in Current and Future Climates

合作研究：当前和未来气候下北美西部的大气脊

基本信息

批准号：
2206997
负责人：
Paul Loikith
金额：
$ 25.51万
依托单位：
Portland State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-07-01 至 2025-06-30
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2206997&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Atmospheric Ridging over

项目摘要

Atmospheric ridges are elongated regions of high pressure relative to their surroundings that are typically associated with warm and dry conditions at the surface. Such atmospheric features have contributed to notable extreme events in the region, including the 2021 Northwest Heatwave, droughts, and the 2020 Labor Day Fires that burned across Oregon and Washington. While ridges are a normal part of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, their occurrence over western North America is influenced by multiple unique factors including proximity to the Pacific Ocean, interactions between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere and the complex topography of western North America. The overarching goal of this project is to advance our basic understanding of the components of the Earth system that influence atmospheric ridges over western North America, which could help identify sources for their seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions and investigate how and why ridges will respond to continued global warming. The project will target three key questions using a combination of observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate model simulations: (1) How do various atmosphere, ocean and land-surface conditions influence characteristics of atmospheric ridges such as their extent, frequency, persistence and amplitude? (2) How are simulated changes in ridge characteristics influenced by changes in these physical drivers? and (3) How do potential changes in ridge characteristics interact with warming to influence surface climate and extremes in the region? In addition, detailed analyses of the physical mechanisms associated with extreme ridges (very large, very amplified, and/or very persistent ridges) will be conducted, as they are likely associated with the most significant climate impacts. Together, the proposed work will provide an understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with weather and climate extremes that are associated with major societal impacts, in current and future warmer climates.The proposed work will advance the understanding of how and why natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change influences this important atmospheric feature. Findings will facilitate the evaluation of implications of current and future weather and climate extremes that affect various sectors including human health, water resources, infrastructure, the regional economy, and emergency management resources. The outcomes of this work are directly translatable to impacts on society and the environment, thus aiding planning and adaptation measures. The proposed work will address gaps in scientific literature about how factors such as natural climate variability modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation and anomalous soil-moisture conditions influence ridging in this region. The methods, framework, and insights developed from this work will be extensible to other mid-latitude regions. The project will involve training a postdoctoral researcher and a graduate student, who will be directly supported by the project, as well as undergraduate students from underrepresented backgrounds at Washington State University Vancouver (WSUV) and Portland State University (PSU). It will directly contribute to building STEM research infrastructure at WSUV, which is a primarily undergraduate institution with ~44% first-generation students, ~55% women and ~33% students of color. The investigators, postdoc, and graduate student will participate in the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) Science Communication Fellowship program that involves creating hands-on activities to demonstrate our research to the museum visitors and for the team's outreach efforts with local educators, schools, community groups and stakeholders. Finally, this project will provide a basic science underpinning for recent applied climate research by the PSU Climate Science Lab in partnership local water utilities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大气脊是相对于周围环境的高压区域的伸长区域，通常与表面温暖和干燥的条件相关。这种大气特征促成了该地区值得注意的极端事件，包括2021年西北热浪，干旱以及遍布俄勒冈州和华盛顿的2020年劳动节大火。尽管山脊是中纬度大气循环的正常组成部分，但它们在北美西部的发生受到多种独特因素的影响，包括靠近太平洋，太平洋与大气之间的相互作用以及北美西部的复杂地形。该项目的总体目标是促进我们对影响北美西部大气脊的地球系统组成部分的基本理解，这可以帮助识别其季节性到季节性预测的来源，并研究脊对持续的全球变暖的反应以及为什么脊的响应以及为什么脊而做出反应。该项目将使用观测值和耦合模型对比项目（CMIP6）气候模型模拟来针对三个关键问题：（1）（1）各种大气，海洋和地面条件如何影响大气山脊的特征，例如其程度，频率，频率，持久性和放大器？（2）如何影响这些物理驱动因素变化的脊特征的模拟变化？（3）山脊特征的潜在变化如何与变暖相互作用以影响该地区的表面气候和极端？此外，将对与极端脊相关的物理机制进行详细分析（非常大，非常放大和/或非常持续的山脊），因为它们可能与最重要的气候影响有关。拟议的工作将共同理解与当前和未来温暖的气候中与重大社会影响相关的与天气和极端气候相关的物理机制。拟议的工作将促进对自然气候变化和人为气候变化的方式以及为什么对这种重要大气的影响的理解。调查结果将促进对当前和未来天气以及极端气候的影响的评估，这些天气以及气候极端，包括人类健康，水资源，基础设施，区域经济和应急管理资源。这项工作的结果可以直接转化为对社会和环境的影响，从而有助于计划和适应措施。拟议的工作将解决科学文献中有关自然气候变化模式等因素，例如厄尔尼诺南部振荡和异常土壤 - 摩尔斯的条件等因素如何影响该地区的骑行。从这项工作开发的方法，框架和见解将广泛地扩展到其他中纬度地区。该项目将涉及培训博士后研究人员和研究生，该项目将得到该项目的直接支持，以及来自华盛顿州立大学温哥华大学（WSUV）和波特兰州立大学（PSU）的代表性不足背景的本科生。它将直接有助于在WSUV建造STEM研究基础设施，该基础设施是一家初级的本科机构，第一代学生约44％，女性约55％和约33％的颜色学生。调查人员，博士后和研究生将参加俄勒冈州科学与工业博物馆（OMSI）科学传播奖学金计划，该计划涉及创建动手活动，以向我们的博物馆参观者展示我们的研究，并与当地教育者，学校，社区，社区团体和利益相关者一起进行团队的宣传工作。最后，该项目将为PSU气候科学实验室的最新应用气候研究提供基础科学基础。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估该基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响来审查标准，认为NSF的法定任务是通过评估而被视为珍贵的。