Applying Year of Polar Prediction-Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) Targeted Observing Periods to Advance Winter Numerical Weather Forecasting for the U.S. Antarctic Program

应用极地预测年 - 南半球 (YOPP-SH) 目标观测周期推进美国南极计划的冬季数值天气预报

• 批准号: 2205398
• 负责人: David Bromwich
• 金额: $ 84.44万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2205398&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Applying; Year; Polar; Prediction; Southern

The project aims to promote the progress of science and advance national interests in improved numerical weather modeling capabilities for American researchers and for the United States Antarctic Program. The effort consists of atmospheric modeling work leveraging the international Year of Polar Prediction — Southern Hemisphere program. This effort includes a field campaign component in 2022 that features enhanced observations of the Antarctic atmosphere in winter during Targeted Observing Periods. The project seeks to improve numerical weather prediction capabilities for both research applications and weather forecasting support for the US Antarctic Program. The project goals include evaluating the use of special observations to improve atmospheric modeling, determining whether the new technique is superior to existing techniques for Antarctic atmospheric simulation and weather prediction, and assess how well the model is performing in its prediction of polar clouds and precipitation. The project will advance the field by applying an unprecedented dataset gathered in an international collaboration and determining its benefit for future science and forecasting. It will also advance the field by exploring a new method for the use of such information in atmospheric models for the polar regions. The benefits are increases in knowledge, improved weather modeling, and gains in the model weather forecasting capabilities that the Antarctic Program relies on, allowing for enhanced efficiency and safety for Antarctic operations. The project will also advance education and outreach by supporting the education and professional development of a graduate student along with interactive exposure of diverse audiences to the challenging task of weather modeling and prediction for the remote Southern Ocean and Antarctic regions.This project focuses on the value of special observations for improving Antarctic atmospheric simulation and weather prediction, and evaluate how the model performs in predicting polar clouds and precipitation. Specifically, within the Year of Polar Prediction — Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) framework, this project has four aspects. First, the team will identify candidate Targeted Observing Periods (TOPs) from East Antarctica to the Ross Sea. Second, the dataset of special YOPP-SH radiosonde launches made in the TOPs will be assimilated into model experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is run in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), the numerical weather prediction capability for USAP. These data assimilation experiments will apply the AMPS framework to determine the impact of the observations on predictions of major weather events affecting the US Antarctic Program (USAP) McMurdo and Palmer Stations, and to identify the governing processes. Third, a new data assimilation capability for the WRF Model— Multi-Resolution Incremental 4DVAR (MRI-4DVAR) —is being tested in these data impact experiments to determine its effectiveness for real-time use in AMPS and thus for possible future implementation as well as for research modeling. Fourth, cloud and precipitation observations collected during the TOPs at Davis and Vernadsky Stations will be applied to analyses of the WRF simulations to assess model weaknesses. This project aims to enhance WRF’s handling of clouds and precipitation to improve parameterization. The goal is to increase the accuracy of AMPS forecasts for USAP operations and to improve the WRF model for the research community. This project will ultimately promote the progress of science and advance national interests in improved numerical weather modeling capabilities for American researchers and for USAP.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在促进科学的进步，并促进国家研究人员和美国南极计划的数值天气建模能力的改善国家利益。这项工作包括大气建模工作，利用国际极地预测年份 - 南半球计划。这项工作包括2022年的现场运动组成部分，该活动的特征是在有针对性的观测期内冬季对南极气氛的增强观察结果。该项目旨在提高研究应用程序和对美国南极计划的天气预报支持的数值天气预测能力。项目目标包括评估使用特殊观察来改善大气建模，确定新技术是否优于南极大气模拟和天气预测的现有技术，并评估该模型在其极地云和降水量的预测中表现出色。该项目将通过运用在国际合作中收集的前所未有的数据集，并确定其对未来科学和预测的好处，从而推进该领域。它还将通过探索一种在极地区域中使用此类信息的新方法来推进该领域。知识的提高，天气建模的改善以及南极计划所依赖的模型天气预测能力的增长增加了好处，从而提高了南极操作的效率和安全性。该项目还将通过支持研究生的教育和专业发展以及对潜水员的互动式接触天气建模和对偏远南部海洋和南极地区预测的挑战任务的互动式曝光来提高教育和外向。该项目侧重于改善抗敏感大气模拟和天气预测的特殊观察值，并在模型中表现出对层次的表现，并在模型中表现出多范围，并在层面上表现出色层面和巨大的层面。特别是在极地预测的那一年 - 南半球（YOPP-SH）框架，该项目有四个方面。首先，该小组将确定从南极洲东部到罗斯海的候选人有针对性的观察期（顶部）。其次，使用天气研究和预测（WRF）模型（在南极尺度尺度尺度尺度预测系统（AMPS），USAP的数字天气预测能力）中运行的天气研究和预测模型（WRF）模型，将在顶部制作的特殊YopP-SH辐射发射的数据集被吸收到模型实验中。这些数据同化实验将应用AMPS框架来确定观察结果对影响美国南极计划（USAP）McMurdo和Palmer站的主要天气事件的影响，并确定管理过程。第三，在这些数据影响实验中测试了WRF模型的新数据同化能力（多分辨率增量4DVAR（MRI-4DVAR）），以确定其在AMP中实时使用的有效性，从而确定可能的未来实施以及研究模型。第四，将在戴维斯和Vernadsky站的顶部收集的云和降水观察结果应用于WRF模拟的分析，以评估模型弱点。该项目旨在增强WRF对云的处理和降水改善参数化。目的是提高AMP对USAP操作的准确性，并改善研究界的WRF模型。该项目最终将促进科学的进步，并提高国家利益，以改善美国研究人员的数值天气建模能力和USAP。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用该基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响来审查标准，被认为是通过评估来获得的支持。