Accomplishment Based Renewal: Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

基于成就的更新：古新世-始新世热最大值期间水文循环的强化

基本信息

批准号：
2103513
负责人：
James Zachos
金额：
$ 39.54万
依托单位：
University of California-Santa Cruz
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-01 至 2024-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2103513&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Accomplishment Based Renewal Intensification Hydrologic

项目摘要

Earth has experienced just over 1°C of fossil fuel carbon dioxide-driven global warming to date. The impacts of this warming on the global hydrologic cycle are already evident. The projected 4-5°C of warming by 2300 under a business-as-usual fossil fuel use scenario is predicted to further intensify the hydrologic cycle. The resulting impacts on societies’ water security would be significant, and likely create widespread hardship for nations across the globe, rich and poor. Climate models, tested by their ability to replicate past changes in climate, are an important tool to plan for and minimize those impacts. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, roughly 55 million years ago) serves as a crucial case study to test climate models. It also provides a real-world example of the sensitivity of the climate system to a massive carbon dioxide input. The proposed project will use coastal sediments to develop proxy records of water chemistry and onshore hydrology across the PETM. These new data will be compared with climate model studies of that ancient natural climate event. The educational Broader Impacts of the proposed project include support for a graduate student and for undergraduate participants.Although considerable geologic evidence exists for a shift in hydroclimate during the PETM, additional observations are required to assess regional/local changes, particularly as relates to extremes on annual or shorter time scales. To this end, this project will estimate regional changes in coastal hydrography/chemistry along both coasts of the US utilizing shallow marine siliciclastic sections in outcrops and cores. Preliminary data indicate significant changes in runoff (& erosion) and thus precipitation, very likely in the amplitude of wet/dry cycles and/or heavy precipitation events (e.g. atmospheric rivers, extratropical cyclones). Building on prior results, in collaboration with colleagues novel isotopic and geochemical proxies will be employed, along with traditional proxies, to constrain local changes in coastal ocean hydrography/chemistry. The observations will be compared against output of recently completed GCM simulations of the PETM utilizing high resolution models including the Community Atmosphere Model. The primary focus of the comparisons will be on changes in the seasonal cycles of precipitation and frequency of extreme events (i.e., heavy precipitation or droughts).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

迄今为止，化石燃料二氧化碳导致的全球变暖已经超过 1°C，根据商业预测，这种变暖对全球水文循环的影响已经很明显。 -通常的化石燃料使用情况预计将进一步加剧水文循环，从而对社会的水安全产生重大影响，并可能给全球各国（无论贫富）造成广泛的困难，这已通过气候模型的能力进行了检验。复制过去的气候变化，是规划和最小化这些影响的重要工具。古新世-始新世最热期（PETM，大约 5500 万年前）是测试气候模型的重要案例研究，它还提供了一个现实世界的例子来说明气候模型的敏感性。拟议的项目将利用沿海沉积物来开发整个 PETM 的水化学和陆上水文学的代理记录，这些新数据将与该古代自然气候事件的气候模型研究进行比较。更广泛的影响拟议项目的内容包括对研究生和本科生参与者的支持。尽管存在大量地质证据表明 PETM 期间水文气候发生变化，但仍需要额外的观测来评估区域/当地变化，特别是与每年或更短时间的极端情况有关为此，该项目将利用露头和岩芯中的浅海硅质碎屑剖面来估计美国两岸沿海水文学/化学的区域变化。因此，降水很可能以湿/干循环和/或强降水事件（例如大气河流、温带气旋）的幅度为基础，与同事合作，将采用新的同位素和地球化学代理以及传统代理。，以限制沿海海洋水文学/化学的局部变化，这些观测结果将与最近完成的使用高分辨率模型（包括社区大气模型）的 GCM 模拟的输出进行比较。比较将针对降水季节周期的变化和极端事件（即强降水或干旱）的频率进行。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（3）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Astrochronology of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum on the Atlantic coastal plain

大西洋沿岸平原古新世-始新世热最大值的天文年代学

DOI：
发表时间：
2022-09
期刊：
Nature communications
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Mingsong Li; Timothy J
通讯作者：
Timothy J

Shelf Ecosystems Along the U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain Prior to and During the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum: Insights Into the Stratigraphic Architecture

古新世至始新世热最大值之前和期间美国大西洋沿海平原的陆架生态系统：对地层结构的见解

DOI：
10.1029/2022pa004475
发表时间：
2022-10
期刊：
Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Doubrawa, Monika;Stassen, Peter;Robinson, Marci M.;Babila, Tali L.;Zachos, James C.;Speijer, Robert P.
通讯作者：
Speijer, Robert P.

Assessing environmental change associated with early Eocene hyperthermals in the Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

评估与美国大西洋沿岸平原始新世早期高温相关的环境变化

DOI：
10.5194/cp-19-1677-2023
发表时间：
2023-08-17
期刊：
Climate of the Past
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
W. Rush;J. Self‐Trail;Yang Zhang;A. Sluijs;H. Brinkhuis;J. Zachos;J. Ogg;M. Robinson
通讯作者：
M. Robinson