P2C2: Integrating Multiproxy Records of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Last Millennia to Contextualize 21st (twenty-first) Century Events in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

P2C2：整合过去千年热带气旋活动的多代理记录，以了解墨西哥湾北部 21 世纪（二十一世纪）的事件

• 批准号: 2103115
• 负责人: Emily Elliott
• 金额: $ 32.75万
• 依托单位: University of Alabama Tuscaloosa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-07-15 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2103115&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Integrating; Multiproxy; Records; Tropical

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2)Improving the climate record of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity and related large-scale atmospheric driving mechanisms in the Southeast United States will advance knowledge and understanding of past TC characteristics and their mark left in the coastal environment. This project aims to develop a comprehensive multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone (TC) activity, including storm frequency and intensity throughout the last 150 years for northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) coastal systems. Specifically, the researchers will compare annually to seasonally resolved tree-ring records that act as TC proxies with lower resolution records of high intensity TC events recorded in sediment cores. The project will develop a multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone occurrence for the nGoM by using existing, site-specific, well-calibrated sediment records of TCs in conjunction with instrumental and historical records of TC events to develop a 150-year record of TC events for each site in southeastern US. Additionally, particle size from established sediment records of TCs will be re-analyzed to model TC surge intensity over the 150-year period. The project will also develop annually resolved tree-ring records of TC activity for the Southeast by analyzing extant collections of multiple tree species (principally slash pine, longleaf pine, and bald cypress) that are known to be long-lived (~200–2,500 years), and are responsive to hydroclimatic variability, in multiple locations throughout the Southeast. The researchers will analyze various tracers including ring width and stable oxygen isotopes for a period of ~150 years to calibrate against the constrained TC chronology developed from sediment and instrumental records. The potential Broader Impacts include the development and calibration of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) data set over the last 150 years for the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM). This data can be used to improve assessments of hazard impact, coastal ecosystem resiliency, and predictions of Tropical Cyclones. Coastal communities along the nGoM coast are at extreme risk in the light of projected climate change. Additionally, identifying geographic regions of greatest impact from TCs can inform local stakeholders on recent TC trends and the primary drivers, thus improving hurricane forecasts and response, and saving economic, cultural, and ecologically important resources. The results of the project will be disseminated to climate modelers, and to stakeholders, coastal managers, and policy makers to inform planning for TC damage from high winds, storm surge, and intense rainfall. Data developed from this research will be made publicly available. The project will support two early career researchers and will provide educational, research training and professional development opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students at University of Alabama Tuscaloosa.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项的全部或部分资金来源于《2021 年美国救援计划法案》（公法 117-2），改善美国东南部过去热带气旋 (TC) 活动的气候记录和相关大规模大气驱动机制将加深对过去 TC 特征及其在沿海环境中留下的痕迹的了解和理解 该项目旨在开发一个综合的热带气旋 (TC) 活动多代理数据库，包括过去 150 年的风暴频率和强度。具体来说，研究人员将每年将作为 TC 代理的季节性解析树轮记录与沉积物岩心中记录的高强度 TC 事件的较低分辨率记录进行比较。 - nGoM 热带气旋发生代理数据库，利用现有的、特定地点的、经过良好校准的 TC 沉积物记录，结合 TC 事件的仪器记录和历史记录，为每个 TC 事件制定 150 年的记录此外，将重新分析已建立的 TC 沉积物记录中的颗粒尺寸，以模拟 150 年期间的 TC 涌动强度。分析现有的多种树种（主要是湿地松、长叶松和秃柏），这些树种已知寿命长（约 200-2,500 年），并且具有响应性研究人员将分析整个东南部多个地点的各种示踪剂，包括环宽度和稳定氧同位素，以根据沉积物和仪器记录得出的受限制的TC年代学进行校准。过去 150 年墨西哥湾北部 (nGoM) 热带气旋 (TC) 数据集的开发和校准该数据可用于改进对沿海灾害影响的评估。此外，鉴于预计的气候变化，确定热带气旋影响最大的地理区域可以让当地利益相关者了解最近的热带气旋趋势和主要驱动因素。从而改善飓风预报和响应，并节省经济、文化和生态方面的重要资源。该项目的结果将传播给气候建模者、利益相关者、沿海管理者和政策制定者，为热带气旋损害规划提供信息。该项目将为两名早期职业研究人员提供支持，并为阿拉巴马大学的研究生和本科生提供教育、研究培训和专业发展机会。塔斯卡卢萨。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。