Collaborative Research: P2C2--El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Variability Changes during Abrupt Climate Events

合作研究：P2C2--厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）在气候突变事件期间的变率变化

• 批准号: 2103007
• 负责人: Pedro Di Nezio
• 金额: $ 34.34万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2103007&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; El; Ni

The research team aims to reconstruct changes in variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the last deglacial period by measuring coral delta O-18 on previously collected samples from Vanuatu in the tropical southwestern Pacific Ocean. Modern coral delta O-18records from Vanuatu and pseudoproxy experiments show a high degree of skill in capturing changes in ENSO variability, providing confidence that the resulting records can be used to reconstruct past ENSO variability. The researchers will compare the reconstructions to climate model output of ENSO during previous glacial times when Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was both vigorous and sluggish. The research team’s current hypotheses, based on climate model output, is that ENSO was reduced during glacial times, relative to modern, and that ENSO was more active when AMOC was shutdown, relative to contemporaneous glacial times when AMOC was active. The team will conduct hosing model experiments under glacial boundary conditions to test the sensitivity of ENSO and AMOC changes to background conditions. The research will also investigate how non-stationarity of ENSO may affect the skills of Vanuatu corals by using an ensemble of climate models run under different climate boundary conditions. The project may help shed light on the sensitivity of ENSO to external forcing, a highly critical issue given that climate models used for future climate projections do not agree if ENSO will strengthen or weaken as the Earth warms.The potential Broader Impacts include a deeper understanding of ENSO variability, development of a new drilling system for field research, involvement of graduate and undergraduate students in the research including undergraduates at a primarily undergraduate teaching institution.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

研究小组旨在通过测量先前从热带西南太平洋瓦努阿图采集的珊瑚三角洲 O-18 记录样本，重建末次冰消期厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO) 的变化变化。来自瓦努阿图的数据和伪代理实验显示了捕捉 ENSO 变化变化的高度技巧，这为所得到的记录可用于重建过去的 ENSO 变化提供了信心。研究人员将把重建结果与气候模型进行比较。研究小组基于气候模型输出的当前假设是，相对于现代，ENSO 在冰期期间有所减少，而 ENSO 则在以前的冰河时期减少了。相对于 AMOC 活跃时的同期冰期，AMOC 关闭时更活跃。该团队将在冰川边界条件下进行水管模型实验，以测试其敏感性。该研究还将通过使用在不同气候边界条件下运行的气候模型集合来研究 ENSO 的非平稳性如何影响瓦努阿图珊瑚的技能。 ENSO 与外部强迫的关系是一个非常关键的问题，因为用于未来气候预测的气候模型并不同意 ENSO 会随着地球变暖而增强或减弱。潜在的更广泛影响包括更深入地了解 ENSO 的变化、开发新的钻探方法该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

厄尔尼诺南方涛动的未来：使用大型集合来阐明时变响应和模型间差异

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-413-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-04-14
• 期刊: Earth System Dynamics
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: N. Maher;Robert C.J. Wills;P. DiNezio;J. Klavans;Sebastian Milinski;S. Sanchez;S. Stevenson;M. Stuecker;X. Wu
• 通讯作者: X. Wu