Opening and reestablishment of Kilauea's lower east rift zone magma plumbing system during the 2018 eruption

2018 年喷发期间基拉韦厄东部裂谷带岩浆管道系统的开放和重建

基本信息

批准号：
2114382
负责人：
Helge Gonnermann
金额：
$ 33.33万
依托单位：
William Marsh Rice University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-01-01 至 2024-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2114382&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Opening reestablishment Kilauea lower east

项目摘要

The project is focused on computer modeling of magma flow in the subsurface beneath Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. During Kilauea's 4-months long 2018 eruption magma flowed beneath the ground surface over a distance of approximately 15 miles from Kilauea's summit before erupting onto the surface. Once erupted, the magma formed lava flows that covered approximately 875 acres of land, destroyed approximately 700 houses, and resulted in close to 1 billion dollars of damage. Volcanoes typically encompass areas of thousands of square miles, but the actual location where magma breaches the surface is difficult to predict and contingent upon the flow of magma at thousands of feet beneath the surface. Subsurface magma migration can be detected by satellite and geophysical observations, but potential forecasting of volcanic activity and assessment of eruption hazards are contingent upon predictive computer modeling of subsurface magma flow and deformation of the surrounding rock, in particular the magma's ability to break rock in order to advance toward the surface. This project will leverage the exceptionally diverse and extensive set of observational data from the 2018 eruption of Kilauea in a case study with the goal of advancing the state of the art in computer modeling and forecasting prior to and during an eruption. The project will benefit national health, prosperity and welfare by advancing societal resilience against natural disasters. A substantial component of the project involves the education of high-school teachers within the Houston Independent School District, the largest school district in Texas and serving a highly diverse urban student population with approximately 80% economically disadvantaged students. Beyond it importance in scientific and industrial research, computational modeling has become a valuable skill as part of the modern manufacturing process and the goal is to promote the teaching of computational modeling at the high-school level.The objective of the proposed project is to advance understanding about the interaction between magmatic and tectonic components of volcanic systems. It is focused on physics-based modeling of magma transport during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. It has been suggested that abrupt seaward movement of Kilauea’s south flank, as during the 2018 M6.9 earthquake, can be facilitated by intrusive magma migration. Buildup of magma pressure at Kilauea was detected for several years prior to the 2018 eruption, eventually causing magma to intrude for 15 miles down Kilauea’s east rift zone before erupting. A key objective of the project is to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of magma pressure within Kilauea’s east rift zone in order to provide constraints on stress conditions that may have led to the abrupt displacement of Kilauea’s south flank during the M6.9 earthquake. The proposed approach includes numerical simulation of magma transport prior to and during the 2018 eruption, integrated with elastic deformation modeling of the magmatic-tectonic system, using a wide range of observations (GPS, InSAR, tilt, gravity, earthquakes, eruption rate, magma chemistry) as constraints. Advancement of forecasting capabilities in volcanic systems is contingent upon physics-based models to reliably predict observational data. The intellectual merit of the proposed project lies in the advancement of physics-based computer modeling through leveraging one of the best-monitored volcanic eruptions of all time.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目的集中在基拉伊亚火山离子岩浆以下的地下岩浆流的建模，在距离Kilauea的山顶约15英里的距离上，在爆发到地面上，岩层覆盖了大约875英亩英亩的熔岩流，将地面上的地面流动。在土地上，大约700座房屋造成了数千平方英里的典型损坏观察火山活动和喷发的评估？在德克萨斯州最大的地区，在居住的学区中，在造成自然灾害的社会的韧性和福利。作为现代制造业的一部分，处于弱势的学生是一项宝贵的技能，目的是在高中级别的计算建模。在2018年基拉尤（Kilauea）火山爆发期间，岩浆运输的建模，已经建议南方的海洋运动，就像2018年M6.9地球上的地震一样。在Kilauea发现了2018年爆发的探测器，最终导致Magma在Kilauea的East Rift区侵入15英里，该项目的关键目标是量化Kilauea的East Rift Rift rift rift rift rift rift rift rift rift rift rift rift的时空进化。在M6.9地震期间，可能需要在2018年爆发之前和期间使用MAGM ATIC -Tecticonic System的弹性变形模型，在M6.9地震期间可能需要进行突然显示的南方侧面。广泛的观察结果（GP，倾斜，重力，地震，喷发率，岩浆化学）在火山系统中的预测能力均取决于基于物理基础的模型，以预测可靠的观察数据。基于物理学的计算机建模，通过利用有史以来最优惠的火山爆发来利用一项最佳的火山爆发。该奖项反映了NSF的反应，并通过使用ION的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准来通过评估来支持Demed值得支持。