Collaborative Research: Interactions between Arctic cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and sea ice in a warming climate

合作研究：气候变暖时北极气旋、大气河流和海冰之间的相互作用

• 批准号: 2043727
• 负责人: Stephen Vavrus
• 金额: $ 36.15万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-02-01 至 2025-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2043727&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Interactions; between; Arctic

The Arctic is undergoing a dramatic transformation due to global climate change, including major reductions in the areal coverage and thickness of Arctic sea ice. Past research suggests that Arctic sea ice loss will likely lead to stronger winds near the surface, accompanied by more frequent and/or intense storms. This project is testing the hypothesis that such interactions represent an important but unrecognized feedback: reduced sea ice coverage leading to stronger surface winds and storms, greater surface evaporation, and stronger and more frequent "atmospheric rivers" flowing into the Arctic, leading in turn to accelerated sea ice loss. Discoveries from the study will help decision makers address numerous environmental challenges in the Arctic that affect the region's people, ecosystems, economy, and security. For example, stronger storms and reduced sea ice coverage likely will lead to stronger wind-driven waves and greater coastal erosion affecting Arctic communities. In addition, stronger waves and storms may hinder plans for expanded Arctic marine navigation. This project takes an original perspective by investigating as a system the interactive roles of sea ice, moisture, and atmospheric/oceanic dynamics in the Arctic's ongoing climate transformation. Past studies have investigated coupled responses between certain components, but this research will advance knowledge by broadening the analysis to encompass a semi-enclosed and partially reinforcing system of physical processes involving sea ice, cyclones, wind, and moisture/precipitation (including atmospheric rivers). To achieve these objectives, the researchers are studying archived global climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensembles, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (versions 5 and 6), and Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) in combination with two sets of innovative modeling experiments using the latest CESM2 version. They are using these results to assess the interactive physical mechanisms comprising the proposed feedback system loop and address three overarching research questions: (1) how extratropical cyclones, associated atmospheric rivers, and Arctic winds affect sea ice through heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes; (2) how sea ice in turn affects cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and Arctic winds; and (3) how a changing climate will affect these feedback processes and their relative importance over different spatial and temporal scales.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

由于全球气候变化，北极正在经历巨大的转变，包括北极海冰的面积覆盖和厚度大幅减少。 过去的研究表明，北极海冰的消失可能会导致地表附近的风力更强，并伴随着更频繁和/或更强烈的风暴。 该项目正在测试这样的假设，即这种相互作用代表了一个重要但未被认识到的反馈：海冰覆盖范围的减少导致更强的表面风和风暴、更大的表面蒸发以及更强和更频繁的“大气河流”流入北极，进而导致海冰加速流失。该研究的发现将帮助决策者解决北极地区的众多环境挑战，这些挑战影响该地区的人民、生态系统、经济和安全。例如，更强的风暴和减少的海冰覆盖可能会导致更强的风浪和更大的海岸侵蚀，影响北极社区。 此外，更强的波浪和风暴可能会阻碍扩大北极海上航行的计划。 该项目采用独到的视角，将海冰、水分和大气/海洋动力学作为一个系统，在北极持续的气候转变中进行交互作用的研究。 过去的研究已经调查了某些组成部分之间的耦合响应，但这项研究将通过扩大分析范围以涵盖涉及海冰、气旋、风和水分/降水（包括大气河流）的半封闭和部分强化的物理过程系统来推进知识的发展。为了实现这些目标，研究人员正在研究来自社区地球系统模型 (CESM) 大型集合、耦合模型比对项目（版本 5 和 6）和极地放大模型比对项目 (PAMIP) 的存档全球气候模型模拟，并结合两个使用最新的 CESM2 版本进行一系列创新建模实验。 他们正在利用这些结果来评估构成所提出的反馈系统回路的交互式物理机制，并解决三个首要研究问题：（1）温带气旋、相关大气河流和北极风如何通过热量、湿度和动量通量影响海冰； （2）海冰如何反过来影响气旋、大气河流和北极风； (3) 气候变化将如何影响这些反馈过程及其在不同空间和时间尺度上的相对重要性。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Investigating Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Near‐Surface Wind Speed Changes Related to Surface Roughness Using the Community Earth System Model

使用社区地球系统模型研究未来北极海冰损失和与地表粗糙度相关的近地表风速变化

• DOI: 10.1029/2023jd038824
• 发表时间: 2023-09-27
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: A. DuVivier;S. Vavrus;M. Holl;L. L;rum;rum;Christine A. Shields;Rudradutt Thaker
• 通讯作者: Rudradutt Thaker

Future trends of arctic surface wind speeds and their relationship with sea ice in CMIP5 climate model simulations

CMIP5气候模型模拟中北极表面风速的未来趋势及其与海冰的关系

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06071-6
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Vavrus, Stephen J.;Alkama, Ramdane
• 通讯作者: Alkama, Ramdane

When will the Arctic Ocean become ice-free?

北冰洋什么时候才能不结冰？

• DOI: 10.1080/15230430.2021.1941578
• 发表时间: 2021-01
• 期刊: and Alpine Research
• 作者: Vavrus, Stephen J.;Holland, Marika M.
• 通讯作者: Holland, Marika M.