Collaborative Research: Dynamics of Seasonal Forecast Uncertainty: Cross-Basin Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions

合作研究：季节预报不确定性的动态：跨流域海洋-大气相互作用

基本信息

批准号：
2105654
负责人：
Shang-Ping Xie
金额：
$ 48.23万
依托单位：
University of California-San Diego Scripps Inst of Oceanography
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-15 至 2024-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2105654&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Dynamics Seasonal Forecast

项目摘要

Every few years the Pacific ocean warms dramatically in a narrow strip along the equator extending roughly from the South American coast to the dateline. This warming is called an El Nino event, and El Ninos and their cold La Nina opposites are referred to collectively as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. While ENSO events are broadly similar there are important differences, in particular they differ in whether the sea surface temperature (SST) change is greatest in the eastern or central Pacific. They also differ in their magnitude, and El Nino events are often stronger than La Nina events. The consequences of ENSO are felt worldwide, from changes in the Indian monsoon to the severity of winters in Canada, and these impacts vary according to the pattern and magnitude of the event. The dynamical mechanisms that cause diversity in behavior among ENSO events and their global impacts are thus an important practical problem as well as a topic of scientific interest.This project examines the idea that much of the diversity of ENSO events occurs because of interactions between the developing ENSO event and a variety of less prominent climate variability modes occurring over the global oceans. For example the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) is a variability pattern in which fluctuations of the Aleutian Low over the North Pacific generate warm SSTs (or cold, in the opposite phase) which propagate slowly toward the equatorial Pacific through air-sea interactions. The overlap between the domains of the PMM and ENSO makes the PMM a likely suspect in diversifying ENSO events. Likewise, the episodic warming of the Indian Ocean in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode affects the trade winds in the western Pacific, with potential consequences for ENSO given the central role of trade wind fluctuations in ENSO evolution.To examine the effect of secondary modes on ENSO diversity the Principal Investigators (PIs) of this award take advantage of the ensemble method used to predict ENSO events. Ensemble prediction means using a climate model to predict ENSO based on observed initial conditions (the state of the atmosphere and ocean at a given time) but performing several forecast simulations instead of one, and starting each forecast simulation with slightly different initial conditions. The resulting Perturbed Initial Condition Ensemble (PICE) gives a best estimate of the evolution of ENSO and also estimates the uncertainty in the prediction. The idea of this project is that the individual forecast simulations in a PICE contain different secondary modes, and the interactions between secondary modes and ENSO can be assessed by examining differences in ENSO evolution among the simulations. An advantage of this method is that a large database of PICE simulations has been created by the Earth System Prediction (ESP) Working Group of the Communtiy Earth System Model (CESM). The PICE dataset provides a much larger sample size than the observational record, thus statistically robust results can be obtained.The work is of societal importance given its direct connection to ENSO prediction. In addition to its examination of ENSO evolution in prediction simulations the research uses the PICE simulations to understand how differences among ENSO events lead to differences in the impacts of ENSO in populous parts of the world. The project also supports two graduate students and provides internship opportunities for undergraduates.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

每隔几年，太平洋沿着赤道的狭窄地带大致从南美海岸延伸到日期线。这种变暖称为El Nino事件，El Ninos及其冷尼娜对立面被称为El Nino/Southern振荡（ENSO）事件。尽管ENSO事件广为人知，但存在重要的差异，特别是它们在东太平洋地区还是中部地区的海面温度（SST）变化是最大的差异。它们的规模也有所不同，El Nino事件通常比La Nina事件强。从印度季风的变化到加拿大冬季的严重性，ENSO的后果是全世界都感受到的，并且这些影响根据该事件的模式和大小而有所不同。因此ENSO事件和各种不太突出的气候变化模式发生在全球海洋上。例如，太平洋子午线模式（PMM）是一种可变性模式，在北太平洋上方的阿留申族人的波动会产生温暖的SST（或相反阶段的寒冷），通过空气海上相互作用缓慢地向赤道太平洋传播。 PMM和ENSO域之间的重叠使PMM可能是多元化ENSO事件的怀疑。同样，印度洋偶极子（IOD）模式的印度洋的情节变暖会影响西太平洋的贸易风，鉴于贸易风波动在ENSO进化中的核心作用，ENSO的潜在后果。关于ENSO多样性的模式，该奖项的主要研究人员（PIS）利用用于预测ENSO事件的合奏方法。集合预测是指根据观察到的初始条件（在给定时间的大气和海洋状态）使用气候模型来预测ENSO，但进行了几种预测模拟，而不是一个预测模拟，并以略有不同的初始条件启动每个预测模拟。由此产生的扰动初始条件集合（PICE）给出了ENSO演变的最佳估计，并估算了预测的不确定性。该项目的想法是，PICE中的个别预测模拟包含不同的二级模式，并且可以通过检查模拟中的ENSO演变差异来评估次级模式与ENSO之间的相互作用。该方法的一个优点是，地球系统预测（ESP）工作组（ESP）工作组（CESM）创建了大型PICE模拟数据库。 PICE数据集提供的样本量比观测记录大得多，因此可以获得统计上强大的结果。鉴于其与ENSO预测的直接联系，这项工作至关重要。除了检查预测模拟中的ENSO进化外，研究还使用PICE模拟来了解ENSO事件之间的差异如何导致ENSO在世界人口众多地区的影响差异。该项目还支持两名研究生，并为本科生提供实习机会。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的审查标准来评估值得通过评估。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（14）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Ocean currents show global intensification of weak tropical cyclones

DOI：
10.1038/s41586-022-05326-4
发表时间：
2022-11
期刊：
Nature
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Guihua Wang;Ling-long Wu;W. Mei;S. Xie
通讯作者：
Guihua Wang;Ling-long Wu;W. Mei;S. Xie

Effects of tropical sea surface temperature variability on Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone genesis

DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0084.1
发表时间：
2021-08
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Shuo Li;W. Mei;S. Xie
通讯作者：
Shuo Li;W. Mei;S. Xie

Role of ocean dynamics in equatorial Pacific decadal variability

海洋动力学在赤道太平洋年代际变化中的作用

DOI：
10.1007/s00382-022-06312-2
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
Climate Dynamics
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Zhang, Yu;Yu, Shi-Yun;Xie, Shang-Ping;Amaya, Dillon J.;Peng, Qihua;Kosaka, Yu;Lin, Xiaopei;Yang, Jun-Chao;Larson, Sarah M.;Miller, Arthur J.
通讯作者：
Miller, Arthur J.

Global Warming Pattern Formation: The Role of Ocean Heat Uptake